Navigating the Perfect Storm: Research Strategies for Socialecological Systems in a Rapidly Evolving World

The ‘Perfect Storm’ metaphor describes a combination of events that causes a surprising or dramatic impact. It lends an evolutionary perspective to how social-ecological interactions change. Thus, we argue that an improved understanding of how social-ecological systems have evolved up to the present is necessary for the modelling, understanding and anticipation of current and future social-ecological systems. Here we consider the implications of an evolutionary perspective for designing research approaches. One desirable approach is the creation of multi-decadal records produced by integrating palaeoenvironmental, instrument and documentary sources at multiple spatial scales. We also consider the potential for improved analytical and modelling approaches by developing system dynamical, cellular and agent-based models, observing complex behaviour in social-ecological systems against which to test systems dynamical theory, and drawing better lessons from history. Alongside these is the need to find more appropriate ways to communicate complex systems, risk and uncertainty to the public and to policy-makers.     

Radioactivity measurements in moss (Hypnum cupressiforme) and lichen (Cladonia rangiformis) samples collected from Marmara region of Turkey

The present study was conducted to compare the ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U activity concentrations in epigeic moss (Hypnum cupressiforme) and lichen (Cladonia rangiformis). The activity levels in 37 moss and 38 lichen samples collected from the Marmara region of Turkey were measured using a gamma spectrometer equipped with a high purity germanium (HPGe) detector. The activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U in the moss samples were found to be in the range of 0.36-8.13, 17.1-181.1, 1.51-6.17, and 0.87-6.70 Bq kg⁻¹ respectively, while these values were below detection limit (BDL)-4.32, 16.6-240.0, 1.32-6.47, and BDL-3.57 Bq kg⁻¹ respectively in lichen. The average moss/lichen activity ratios of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ²³²Th, and ²³⁸U were found to be 1.32 ± 0.57, 2.79 ± 1.67, 2.11 ± 0.82, and 2.19 ± 1.02, respectively. Very low ¹³⁷Cs concentrations were observed in moss and lichen samples compared to soil samples collected from the same locations in a previous study. Seasonal variations of the measured radionuclide activities were also examined in the three sampling stations.     

Daily Updating of Operational Statistical Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts for the western U.S.1

Abstract: Official seasonal water supply outlooks for the western United States are typically produced once per month from January through June. The Natural Resources Conservation Service has developed a new outlook product that allows the automated production and delivery of this type of forecast year‐round and with a daily update frequency. Daily snow water equivalent and water year‐to‐date precipitation data from multiple SNOTEL stations are combined using a statistical forecasting technique (“Z‐Score Regression”) to predict seasonal streamflow volume. The skill of these forecasts vs. lead‐time is comparable to the official published outlooks. The new product matches the intra‐monthly trends in the official forecasts until the target period is partly in the past, when the official forecasts begin to use information about observed streamflows to date. Geographically, the patterns of skill also match the official outlooks, with highest skill in Idaho and southern Colorado and lowest skill in the Colorado Front Range, eastern New Mexico, and eastern Montana. The direct and frequent delivery of objective guidance to users is a significant new development in the operational hydrologic seasonal forecasting community.     

Nitrogen Content of Letharia vulpina Tissue from Forests of the Sierra Nevada, California: Geographic Patterns and Relationships to Ammonia Estimates and Climate

Nitrogen (N) pollution is a growing concern in forests of the greater Sierra Nevada, which lie downwind of the highly populated and agricultural Central Valley. Nitrogen content of Letharia vulpina tissue was analyzed from 38 sites using total Kjeldahl analysis to provide a preliminary assessment of N deposition patterns. Collections were co-located with plots where epiphytic macrolichen communities are used for estimating ammonia (NH₃) deposition. Tissue N ranged from 0.6% to 2.11% with the highest values occurring in the southwestern Sierra Nevada (range: 1.38 to 2.11). Tissue N at 17 plots was elevated, as defined by a threshold concentration of 1.03%. Stepwise regression was used to determine the best predictors of tissue N from among a variety of environmental variables. The best model consisted only of longitude (r ² = 0.64), which was reflected in the geographic distribution of tissue values: the southwestern Sierra Nevada, the high Sierras near the Tahoe Basin, and the Modoc Plateau, are three apparent N hotspots arranged along the tilted north–south axis of the study area. Withholding longitude and latitude, the best regression model suggested that NH₃ estimates and annual number of wetdays interactively affect N accumulation (r ² = 0.61; % N ∼ NH₃ + wetdays + (NH₃ × wetdays)). We did not expect perfect correspondence between tissue values and NH₃ estimates since other N pollutants also accumulate in the lichen thallus. Additionally, other factors potentially affecting N content, such as growth rate and leaching, were not given full account.     

Organotin Compounds and Selected Metals in the Marine Environment of Northern Adriatic Sea

The extent of pollution with organotin compounds and Cd, Pb, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cr, Mn, V, Co and Al was investigated in sediments and mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis) from the Slovenian costal area of the Northern Adriatic Sea. Sampling was performed in Marina Portorož, Dockyard Izola, non exposed area of the Bay of Mesečev zaliv and in Mariculture Sečovlje. Mussels were taken in the summer and winter time, while sediments were collected during the winter sampling. Organotin compounds were determined by gas chromatography—mass spectrometry and metals by flame or electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry. The accuracies of the analytical procedures were checked by the analysis of standard reference materials CRM 477 mussel tissue and PACS 2 marine sediment (organotin compounds) and SRM 2976 mussel tissue and CRM 320 river sediment (metals). Good agreements between certified and determined values were obtained. Normalization procedure to Al was applied to estimate the anthropogenic inputs of metals in sediments. The analyses of sediments demonstrated moderate pollution with organotin compounds in Marina Portorož and in Dockyard Izola. Concentrations of tributyltin species were higher than those of dibutyltin and monobutyltin. In mussels substantial contamination with tributyltin was observed in Marina Porotrož and Dockyard Izola. The extent of pollution was higher in the winter time. The analysis of metals in sediments exhibited elevated concentrations in Marina Portorož and Dockyard Izola. Data from the normalization procedure indicated the anthropogenic inputs of Cu, Zn and Cr in Marina Portorož and Mn in Bay of Mesečev zaliv and Dockyard Izola. Mussels, as accumulators of pollutants, in general contained higher metal concentrations during winter time in Dockyard Izola.     

A review of ozone-induced effects on the forests of central Mexico

The first report on oxidant-induced plant damage in the Valley of Mexico was presented over 30 years ago. Ozone is known to occur in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area and elsewhere as the cause of chlorotic mottling on pine needles that are 2 years old or older as observed in 1976 on Pinus hartwegii and Pinus leiophylla. Visible evidences for the negative effects of ozone on the vegetation of central Mexico include foliar injury expressed as chlorotic mottling and premature defoliation on pines, a general decline of sacred fir, visible symptoms on native forest broadleaved species (e.g. Mexican black cherry). Recent investigations have also indicated that indirect effects are occurring such as limited root colonization by symbiotic fungi on ozone-damaged P. hartwegii trees and a negative influence of the pollutant on the natural regeneration of this species. The negative ozone-induced effects on the vegetation will most likely continue to increase.     

Indoor and outdoor concentrations of PM2.5 trace elements at homes, preschools and schools in Stockholm, Sweden

Fine particles (PM2.5) were sampled indoors and outdoors at 40 sampling sites; in ten classrooms in five schools, at ten preschools and 20 non-smoking homes, in three communities in Stockholm, Sweden, during nine 2-week periods. Each sampling site was sampled twice, once during winter and once during spring. The samples were analysed for elemental concentrations using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) spectroscopy. In all locations significantly higher outdoor concentrations were found for elements that are related to long-range transported air masses (S, Ni, Br and Pb), while only Ti was higher indoors in all locations. Similar differences for S, Br and Pb were found in both seasons for homes and schools. In preschools different seasonal patterns were seen for the long-range transported elements S, Br and Pb and the crustal elements Ti, Mn and Fe. The indoor/outdoor ratios for S and Pb suggest an outdoor PM2.5 particle net infiltration of about 0.6 in these buildings. The community located 25 km from the city centre had significantly lower outdoor concentrations of elements of crustal or traffic origin compared with the two central communities, but had similar levels of long-range transported elements. Significant correlations were found between PM2.5 and most elements outdoors (rs = 0.45-0.90). Copper levels were found to correlate well (rs = 0.64-0.91) to the traffic marker NO2 during both winter and spring in all locations. Copper may be a suitable elemental marker for traffic-related aerosols in health studies in areas without other significant outdoor Cu sources.     

An assessment of the environmental and socio-economic impacts of alien rabbits and hares

Directly comparable data on the environmental and socio-economic impacts of alien species informs the effective prioritisation of their management. We used two frameworks, the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) and Socio-Economic Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (SEICAT), to create a unified dataset on the severity and type of impacts caused by alien leporids (rabbits and hares). Literature was reviewed to collate impact data, which was categorised following EICAT and SEICAT guidelines. We aimed to use these data to identify: (1) alien leporid species with severe impacts, (2) their impact mechanisms, (3) the native species and local communities vulnerable to impacts and (4) knowledge gaps. Native species from a range of taxonomic groups were affected by environmental impacts which tended to be more damaging than socio-economic impacts. Indirect environmental impacts were particularly damaging and underreported. No impact data were found for several alien leporid species.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13280-021-01642-7.     

Implications of differing input data sources and approaches upon forest carbon stock estimation

Site index is an important forest inventory attribute that relates productivity and growth expectation of forests over time. In forest inventory programs, site index is used in conjunction with other forest inventory attributes (i.e., height, age) for the estimation of stand volume. In turn, stand volumes are used to estimate biomass (and biomass components) and enable conversion to carbon. In this research, we explore the implications and consequences of different estimates of site index on carbon stock characterization for a 2,500-ha Douglas-fir-dominated landscape located on Eastern Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada. We compared site index estimates from an existing forest inventory to estimates generated from a combination of forest inventory and light detection and ranging (LIDAR)-derived attributes and then examined the resultant differences in biomass estimates generated from a carbon budget model (Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)). Significant differences were found between the original and LIDAR-derived site indices for all species types and for the resulting 5-m site classes (p?<?0.001). The LIDAR-derived site class was greater than the original site class for 42% of stands; however, 77% of stands were within ±1 site class of the original class. Differences in biomass estimates between the model scenarios were significant for both total stand biomass and biomass per hectare (p?<?0.001); differences for Douglas-fir-dominated stands (representing 85% of all stands) were not significant (p?=?0.288). Overall, the relationship between the two biomass estimates was strong (R ²?=?0.92, p?<?0.001), suggesting that in certain circumstances, LIDAR may have a role to play in site index estimation and biomass mapping.     

Using the analytical hierarchy process to assess the environmental vulnerabilities of basins in Taiwan

Every year, Taiwan endures typhoons and earthquakes; these natural hazards often induce landslides and debris flows. Therefore, watershed management strategies must consider the environmental vulnerabilities of local basins. Because many factors affect basin ecosystems, this study applied multiple criteria analysis and the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate seven criteria in three phases (geographic phase, hydrologic phase, and societal phase). This study focused on five major basins in Taiwan: the Tan-Shui River Basin, the Ta-Chia River Basin, the Cho-Shui River Basin, the Tseng-Wen River Basin, and the Kao-Ping River Basin. The objectives were a comprehensive examination of the environmental characteristics of these basins and a comprehensive assessment of their environmental vulnerabilities. The results of a survey and AHP analysis showed that landslide area is the most important factor for basin environmental vulnerability. Of all these basins, the Cho-Shui River Basin in central Taiwan has the greatest environmental vulnerability.