Lexicographic preference in biodiversity valuation: Tests of inconsistencies and willingness to pay

Previous contingent valuation (CV) studies on biodiversity have indicated that as much as one-quarter of the respondents show lexicographic preferences when facing biodiversity-money trade-offs. This behaviour is incompatible with welfare theory underlying CV, and thus questions the validity and reliability of the outcome of CV of changes in biodiversity. However, it is difficult from CV responses to distinguish between strict and modified lexicographic preferences, and those attaching a high value to biodiversity. This paper adds to the empirical evidence showing that what at first hand seems to represent strict lexicographic preferences is at most representing modified lexicographic preferences, and probably rather represent just high valuation of biodiversity. Data on both hypothetical and actual willingness to pay (WTP) from a CV study on biodiversity were used to perform tests of inconsistent attitudes to estimate the maximum share of non-compensatory preferences for biodiversity. The results show that there are very few respondents in the group that consistently state high preference for biodiversity preservation and show clear reluctance to trade-off biodiversity with other goods. However, this group also had higher WTP, both hypothetical and actual, than the reference group. This is consistent with exchange preferences and steep indifference curves. Thus, people with lexicographic preferences for biodiversity are probably less numerous than previously indicated.     

Water supply and sanitation services for all: global progress during the 1990s

The Earth may be largely covered with water, but over one billion people are estimated to be without safe drinking water and almost 2.5 billion (40% of the world's population) without adequate sanitation at the outset of the new millennium. The provision of safe water and sanitation for all poses several serious institutional and economic challenges at international, national and local levels. Despite the various political commitments made from the late 1970s onwards, these commitments have remained largely unfulfilled. Even though some efforts to expand coverage have been made over the past two decades, much of those efforts have been undermined by socioeconomic problems and growing population, particularly in the urban areas of developing countries. The water supply and sanitation sector is actually in acute need of new investments for expansion and maintenance of facilities. Nonetheless, some positive trends can be discerned, such as, for example, the increasing recognition of integrated water resources management, environmental sanitation, public-private partnerships and women as a key for improvement and expansion of services.     

Scope insensitivity in contingent valuation of complex environmental amenities

It has been argued that respondents in contingent valuation (CV) surveys, asked to value complex environmental amenities, will state willingness to pay (WTP) independently of the scope of the project. Such insensitivity to scope would be at odds with rational choice, and could therefore imply that CV is not a theoretically valid method for biodiversity valuation. The scope test in the present CV study was applied to endangered species preservation. Respondents were split in four sub-samples facing different scopes of endangered species preservation. The design allowed for both external and internal scope tests. Furthermore, the tests were split according to elicitation format. Of four external tests of insensitivity to scope, one was rejected, two gave mixed results, depending on either the type of test or elicitation format, and for the last one the null hypothesis could not be rejected. Of five internal tests, insensitivity to scope was rejected in three cases, one test gave mixed results, and one could not be rejected. Survey design features of the CV study, especially an unfamiliar sub-group of endangered species, could explain the apparent insensitivity to scope observed.     

A new generic sub-model for radionuclide fixation in large catchments from continuous and single-pulse fallouts, as used in a river model

This paper presents a new general sub-model for fixation in catchment areas to be used within the framework of a river model for substances such as radionuclides and metals from continuous and single-pulse fallouts. The model has been critically tested using data from 27 European river sites covering a very wide geographical area and contaminated by radiocesium and radiostrontium from the Chernobyl accident and from the nuclear weapons tests (NWT fallout). This modelling approach gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases) at defined sites on a monthly basis. The overall river model is based on processes in the upstream river stretch and in the catchment area. The catchment area is differentiated into inflow (approximately dry land) areas and outflow (approximately wetland) areas. The model has a general structure, which can be used for all radionuclides or substances. It is simple to apply in practice since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, altitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation and fallout. Note that for large catchments, this model does not require data on the characteristic soil type or the percentage of outflow areas (wet lands) in the catchment, as in most previous models, since in practice it is very difficult to obtain reliable data on characteristic soil type or percentage of outflow areas, especially in large and topographically complex catchments. Modelled values have been compared to empirical data from rivers sites covering a wide domain (catchment areas from 3000 to 3,000,000 km2, precipitation from 400 to 1700 mm/year; fallouts from 1600 to 280,000 Bq/m2; altitudes from 0 to 1000 m.a.s.l. and latitudes from 41 degrees to 72 degrees N). The river model with its sub-model for fixation predicts close to the uncertainty factors given by the empirical data, which have been shown to be about a factor of 1.6 for 137Cs and a factor of 2.2 for 90Sr in river water. The obtained characteristic uncertainty factors for 137Cs from the Chernobyl fallout is 2.4, for 137Cs from the NWT fallout it is 1.3 and for the 90Sr results from the NWT fallout it is 3 using the new model.     

Fire-LCA study of TV sets with V0 and HB enclosure material

A novel Life-Cycle Assessment model (Fire-LCA) has been defined for the determination of the environmental impact of measures taken to attain a high level of fire safety. This study, which represents the first application of this LCA model, concentrates on a comparison between a TV with an enclosure manufactured with a flame retardant (FR) plastic (V0-rated high impact polystyrene, HIPS, typical for the US market) and one manufactured with a non-flame retardant (HB-rated HIPS, typical for the European market). A fire model has been defined based on international statistics, which indicate that use of V0 rated enclosure material essentially removes the risk of TV fires while approximately 165 TV fires occur per million TVs in Europe each year where the enclosure material is breached. The application of the model indicates that emissions of some key species (such as dibenzodioxins and PAH) are actually lower for the TV with the FR enclosure than for the TV with the NFR enclosure. This has direct reprercussions for the assessment of the environmental impact of the FR TV relative to that of the NFR TV. Finally, when considering the risk associated with the use of flame retardants, it is also important to consider the risk associated with fires. Based on the in-depth analysis of available fire statistics, conducted as a part of this study, it has been estimated that as many as 160 people may die each year in Europe as a direct result of TV fires and as many as 2000 may be injured in the same period.     

Review and assessment of models used to predict the fate of radionuclides in lakes

A variety of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in fresh water ecosystems have been developed and tested during recent decades within the framework of many international research projects. These models have been implemented in Computerised Decision Support Systems (CDSS) for assisting the appropriate management of fresh water bodies contaminated by radionuclides. The assessment of the state-of-the-art and the consolidation of these CDSSs has been envisaged, by the scientific community, as a primary necessity for the rationalisation of the sector. The classification of the approaches of the various models, the determination of their essential features, the identification of similarities and differences among them and the definition of their application domains are all essential for the harmonisation of the existing CDSSs and for the possible development and improvement of reference models that can be widely applied in different environmental conditions. The present paper summarises the results of the assessment and evaluation of models for predicting the behaviour of radionuclides in lacustrine ecosystems. Such models were developed and tested within major projects financed by the European Commission during its 4th Framework Programme (1994-1998). The work done during the recent decades by many modellers at an international level has produced some consolidated results that are widely accepted by most experts. Nevertheless, some new results have arisen from recent studies and certain model improvements are still necessary.     

Plant uptake of cadmium-109 and zinc-65 at different temperature and organic matter levels

The uptake of 109Cd and 65Zn and their stable isotopes by ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum Lam.), grown on two different soil types, was investigated in climatically controlled growth chambers at 9 and 21 degrees C. The soils were treated with 0 and 4% organic matter (pig [Sus scrofa] manure) and spiked with 109Cd and 65Zn before sowing. The organic matter addition resulted in increased uptake of the 109Cd, Cd, and Zn by ryegrass, but the uptake of 65Zn was decreased. The latter effect was ascribed to isotopic dilution of 65Zn as the amount of stable Zn in the plant tissues increased with the organic matter addition. The effect of temperature was more pronounced than that of organic matter addition, and the uptake of both 109Cd and 65Zn and their stable isotopes was higher in ryegrass grown at 21 degrees C than that grown at 9 degrees C. Results from fractionation and speciation analysis of soil cadmium and zinc were correlated with plant uptake, and there was a good consistency between observed plant uptake and the physico-chemical forms of cadmium and zinc in soil and soil solution presumed to be plant available.     

A mechanistic sub-model predicting the influence of potassium on radiocesium uptake in aquatic biota

It is often argued that the quality of science is related to the possibilities of making accurate predictions. It has also long been argued that due to the complex nature of ecosystems, it will never be possible to predict important target variables, especially with more comprehensive dynamic models. New results in radioecology have, however, demonstrated that those arguments are no longer valid. The key to the predictive success lies in the structuring of the model. The accident at Chernobyl has, in fact, provided science with an intriguing opportunity to study how the pulse of 137Cs is transported through ecosystem pathways, thus revealing the basic structure of these ecosystems, i.e. which are the key and the less-important pathways. It is paradoxical to conclude that the Chernobyl accident is, perhaps, the most important factor behind the revolution in predictive ecosystem modelling which lies behind the decrease in the uncertainty factor from 10 to 0.25-0.5. The sub-model for the potassium moderator presented in this paper is an example of a mechanistically based sub-model used within the framework of a more comprehensive lake model for 137Cs. The K-moderator presented is derived from the existing knowledge on ion transport in biological membranes and takes into account ion equilibria modelled by the Nernst equation and the uptake kinetics quantified by the Michaelis-Menten model. It provides the type of structure to this overall lake model that helps to explain the excellent predictive power of this model.     

Lead exposure of small herbivorous vertebrates from atmospheric pollution

Concentrations of Pb in livers of willow grouse (Lagopus lagopus), black grouse (Tetrao tetrix), and hare (Lepus timidus) were determined in samples collected during the period 1990-92 from 77 locations distributed across Norway. Our objective was to elucidate the impact of long-range atmospheric transport on the Pb exposure of the animals. The moss Hylocomium splendens was measured for atmospheric Pb deposition and Pb in soil at 60-cm depth was determined to reflect the natural geochemical background at the study locations. Strong positive relationships were found between Pb in liver and atmospheric deposition of Pb for all species and age groups studied. Results indicate that long-range atmospheric transport was the main source of Pb in the animals studied. This conclusion was supported by Pb analysis of typical food plants for the animals. Correlation between Pb in liver and Pb in soil mineral matter was observed only when considering sites with very low impact of atmospheric deposition. Even though the observed liver Pb concentrations may seem low (< or =12 microg g(-1) dw) they approach levels where sub-lethal effects cannot be ignored.     

Modelling Change in Ground Vegetation Response to Acid and Nitrogen Pollution, Climate Change and Forest Management at in Sweden 1500–2100 a.d.

The ForSAFE model, designed for modelling biogeochemical cycles (water, acidity, base cation, nitrogen and carbon) in terrestrial ecosystems, was modified with a vegetation response module (VEG), incorporating the effects of: nitrogen pollution, acidification, soil moisture, temperature, wind chill exposure, light and shading by trees, grazing by animals, competition between plants, above ground for light and below ground for water and nutrients. The model calculates the response of number ground vegetation plant groups. The integrated model was tested and validated at integrated level II forest monitoring sites across Sweden, four have been shown here, and used to assess the effect of acidification and nitrogen pollution in relation to factors such as climate change, forest management and changing grazing pressure. The response functions have been derived from single-factor experiments and integrated through the model structure for use on whole systems. The tests with the model suggest that the ground vegetation composition is reasonably well predicted, that much research remains before the model is fully tested and operational, and that the model may serve as a tool for assessing impacts of climate change, acid rain and forest management on plant biodiversity in forested areas.