A blind test of the MOIRA lake model for radiocesium for Lake Uruskul, Russia, contaminated by fallout from the Kyshtym accident in 1957

This paper presents results of a model-test carried out within the framework of the COMETES project (EU). The tested model is a new lake model for radiocesium to be used within the MOIRA decision support system (DSS; MOIRA and COMETES are acronyms for EU-projects). This model has previously been validated against independent data from many lakes covering a wide domain of lake characteristics and been demonstrated to yield excellent predictive power (see H?kanson, Modelling Radiocesium in Lakes and Coastal Areas. Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2000, 215 pp). However, the model has not been tested before for cases other than those related to the Chernobyl fallout in 1986, nor for lakes from this part of the world (Southern Urals) and nor for situations with such heavy fallout as this. The aims of this work were: (1) to carry out a blind test of the model for the case of continental Lake Uruskul, heavily contaminated with 90Sr and 137Cs as a result of the Kyshtym radiation accident (29 September 1957) in the Southern Urals, Russia, and (2) if these tests gave satisfactory results to reconstruct the radiocesium dynamics for fish, water and sediments in the lake. Can the model provide meaningful predictions in a situation such as this? The answer is yes, although there are reservations due to the scarcity of reliable empirical data. From the modelling calculations, it may be noted that the maximum levels of 137Cs in fish (here 400 g ww goldfish), water and sediments were about 100,000 Bq/kg ww, 600 Bq/l and 30,000 Bq/kg dw, respectively. The values in fish are comparable to or higher than the levels in fish in the cooling pond of the Chernobyl NPP. The model also predicts an interesting seasonal pattern in 137Cs levels in sediments. There is also a characteristic "three phase" development for the 137Cs levels in fish: first an initial stage when the 137Cs concentrations in fish approach a maximum value, then a phase with relatively short ecological half-lives followed by a final phase with long ecological half-lives more or less corresponding to the physical decay of radiocesium.     

Chemical and biological characterization of emissions from small residential stoves burning wood and charcoal

Emissions from a small residential wood stove and a newly developed residential stove burning charcoal have been characterized by chemical analysis and mutagenicity testing (Ames Salmonella test). For wood burning the samples were taken under normal and starved air conditions burning birch and spruce separately. The burning conditions in the stove seemed to influence the emissions to a larger extent than the type of wood.The emissions of aldehydes, benzene and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from the charcoal-burning stove are lower by a factor of 25–1000 as compared to the wood stove. The mutagenicity of the emissions showed a similar trend.     

Environmental regulation of trades by fixed standards: The Danish experience

Summary In 1986, the Danish Environmental Protection Agency established a new regulatory system aimed at small-scale polluting activities. Contrary to the dominant regulatory system based on individual standards for each polluting activity, the new regulatory system established uniform and fixed environmental standards for all activities within a trade. The fixed standards concern location, design and daily operation. Thus far, the new regulatory system has been implemented in the trades of fur farms and auto-repair shops.This study shows that fixed environmental standards reduce the total administrative costs, intensify local monitoring and enforcement of the standards, and improve the environmental state. It is proposed that the following criteria should be considered if the regulatory system is to be implemented in other trades. The trade should consist of many units and be characterised by a moderate pace of technological development, it should posses well-defined and well-known environmental problems, and have a cooperative trade association. In Denmark several trades have been identified as obvious objects for future regulation by fixed environmental standards.Bente Kjærgård is a Research Associate in the Department of Environment, Technology and Social Studies at Roskilde University. Correspondence should be addressed to this author. The other authors are Associate Professors in the same Department. Each author possesses a research degree as follows: Per Homann Jespersen in Chemical Engineering, Henning Schroll in Biology, Jesper Holm in Technological Planning, and Bente Kjærgård in Environmental Planning.     

Reliability of a questionnaire and an ergonomic checklist for assessing working conditions and health at call centres.

BACKGROUND: The purpose was to study the test-retest reliability and internal consistency of questions in a questionnaire concerning working conditions and health and the inter-rater reliability of observations and measurements according to an ergonomic checklist. METHOD: Fifty-seven operators participated in a retest questionnaire and 58 operators participated in an inter-observer test. RESULTS: The questions had fair to good or higher reliability in 142 of the total of 312. Twenty-seven of the total of 44 variables in the ergonomic checklist were classified as having fair to good or higher reliability. CONCLUSIONS: About half of the questions had fair to good or higher reliability and can be recommended for further analyses. The majority of variables in the ergonomic checklist were classified as having fair to good or higher reliability. Low reliability does not necessarily indicate that the reliability of the test, per se, is low but may signify that the conditions measured vary over time or that the answers are aggregated in one part of the scale.     

In situ tracer tests to determine retention properties of a block scale fracture network in granitic rock at the Aspö Hard Rock Laboratory, Sweden

Experiments were conducted at the Asp? Hard Rock Laboratory in order to improve the understanding of radionuclide retention properties of fractured crystalline bedrock in the 10-100 m scale (TRUE Block Scale Project, jointly funded by ANDRA, ENRESA, Nirex, JNC, Posiva and SKB). A series of tracer experiments were performed using sorbing tracers in three different flow paths. The different flow paths had Euclidian lengths of 14, 17 and 33 m, respectively, and one to three water conducting structures. Four tests were performed using different cocktails made up of radioactive sorbing tracers (22,24Na+, 42K+, 47Ca2+, 85Sr2+, 83,86Rb+, 131,133Ba2+ and 134,137Cs+). For each tracer injection, the breakthrough of sorbing tracers was compared to the breakthrough of a conservative tracer, 82Br-, 131I-, HTO and 186ReO4-, respectively. In the two longer flow paths, no breakthrough of 83Rb+ and 137Cs+ was observed after 8 months of pumping. Selected tracer tests were subject to basic modelling in which a one-dimensional (1D) advection-dispersion model, including surface sorption, and an unlimited matrix diffusion were used for the interpretation of the results. The results of the modelling indicated that there is a slightly higher mass transfer into a highly porous material in the block-scale experiment compared with in situ experiments performed over shorter distances and significantly higher than what would have been expected from laboratory data obtained from studies of the interactions in nonaltered intact rock.     

Modelling economic impacts and adaptation to extreme events: Insights from European case studies

Adaptation to climate change in Europe has only recently become a true policy concern with the management of extreme events one priority item. Irrespective of future climatic changes increasing the need for systematic evaluation and management of extremes, weather-related disasters already today pose substantial burdens for households, businesses and governments. Research in the ADAM project identified substantial direct risks in terms of potential crop and asset losses due to combined drought and heatwave, as well as flood hazards in Southern and Eastern Europe, respectively. This paper focuses on the indirect, medium to longer term economic risks triggered by the direct risks and mediated by policy responses. We present a selection of three economic impact and adaptation assessments and modelling studies undertaken on extreme event adaptation in Europe. Responding to a need for more economically based adaptation assessments, we address some relatively unresearched issues such as the understanding of past adaptation, the role of market response to impacts as well as government’s ability to plan for and share out extreme event risks. The first analysis undertakes an empirical exploration of observed impacts and adaptation in the agricultural sector in the UK comparing the impact of consecutive extreme events over time in order to determine whether adaptation has occurred in the past and whether this can be used to inform future estimates of adaptation rates. We find that farmers and the agricultural sector clearly have adapted to extreme events over time, but whether this rate can be maintained into the future is unclear, as some autonomous adaptation enacted seemed rather easy to be taken. Markets may mediate or amplify impacts and in the second analysis, we use an economic general equilibrium model to assess the economic effects of a reduction in agricultural production due to drought and heatwave risk in exposed regions in Spain. The analysis suggests that modelled losses to the local economy are more serious in a large-scale scenario when neighbouring provinces are also affected by drought and heatwave events. This is due to the supply-side induced price increase leading to some passing on of disaster costs to consumers. The simulation highlights the importance of paying particular attention to the spatial and distributional effects weather extremes and possibly changes therein induced by climate change may incur. Finally, we discuss how national governments may better plan their disaster liabilities resulting from a need to manage relief and reconstruction activities post event. We do so using a risk based economic planning model assessing the fiscal consequences associated with the coping with natural extremes. We identify large weather-related disaster contingent liabilities, particularly in the key flood hot spot countries Austria, Romania, and Hungary. Such substantial disaster liabilities (“hidden disaster deficits”) when interacting with weak fiscal conditions may lead to substantial additional stress on government budgets and reduced fiscal space for funding other relevant public investment projects. Overall, our paper suggests the importance of respecting the specific spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme event risk when generating information on adaptation decisions. As our adaptation decisions considered, such as using sovereign risk financing instruments are associated with a rather short time horizon, the analysis largely focuses on the management of today’s extreme events and does not discuss in detail projections of risks into a future with climate change. Such projections raise important issues of uncertainty, which in some instances may actually render future projections non-robust, a constraint to be kept in mind when addressing longer term decisions, which at the same time should account for both climate and also socioeconomic change.     

Effects of passengers on bus driver celeration behavior and incident prediction

PROBLEM: Driver celeration (speed change) behavior of bus drivers has previously been found to predict their traffic incident involvement, but it has also been ascertained that the level of celeration is influenced by the number of passengers carried as well as other traffic density variables. This means that the individual level of celeration is not as well estimated as could be the case. Another hypothesized influence of the number of passengers is that of differential quality of measurements, where high passenger density circumstances are supposed to yield better estimates of the individual driver component of celeration behavior. METHOD: Comparisons were made between different variants of the celeration as predictor of traffic incidents of bus drivers. The number of bus passengers was held constant, and cases identified by their number of passengers per kilometer during measurement were excluded (in 12 samples of repeated measurements). RESULTS: After holding passengers constant, the correlations between celeration behavior and incident record increased very slightly. Also, the selective prediction of incident record of those drivers who had had many passengers when measured increased the correlations even more. CONCLUSIONS: The influence of traffic density variables like the number of passengers have little direct influence on the predictive power of celeration behavior, despite the impact upon absolute celeration level. Selective prediction on the other hand increased correlations substantially. This unusual effect was probably due to how the individual propensity for high or low celeration driving was affected by the number of stops made and general traffic density; differences between drivers in this respect were probably enhanced by the denser traffic, thus creating a better estimate of the theoretical celeration behavior parameter C. The new concept of selective prediction was discussed in terms of making estimates of the systematic differences in quality of the individual driver data.     

Differences in Long-term Medical Consequences Depending on Impact Direction Involving Passenger Cars

Objective: There is limited knowledge of the long-term medical consequences for occupants injured in car crashes in various impact directions. Thus, the objective was to evaluate whether injuries leading to permanent medical impairment differ depending on impact direction.

Methods: In total, 36,743 injured occupants in car crashes that occurred between 1995 and 2011 were included. All initial injuries (n = 61,440) were classified according to the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2005. Injured car occupants were followed for at least 3 years to assess permanent medical impairment. The data were divided into different groups according to impact direction and levels of permanent impairment. The risk of permanent medical impairment was established for different body regions and injury severity levels, according to AIS.

Results: It was found that almost 12% of all car occupants sustained a permanent medical impairment. Given an injury, car occupants involved in rollover crashes had the highest overall risk to sustain a permanent medical impairment. Half of the head injuries leading to long-term consequences occurred in frontal impacts. Far-side occupants had almost the same risk as near-side occupants. Occupants who sustained a permanent medical impairment from cervical spine injuries had similar risk in all impact directions (13%) except from rollover (17%). However, these injuries occurred more often in rear crashes. Most of the injuries leading to long-term consequences were classified as minor injuries by AIS for all impact directions.

Conclusions: Studying crash data from a perspective of medical impairment is important to identify injuries that might not be prioritized only considering the AIS but might lead to lower quality of life for the occupant and also costs for society. These results can be used for road transport system strategies and for making priority decisions in vehicle design.     

Managers’ attitudes towards safety measures in the commercial road transport sector

Safety measures and related costs and benefits have been widely discussed and analysed in academic circles and by the authorities and industrial sectors. The study reported in this paper addresses these aspects from a cognitive based perspective. Risk management is about dealing with the conflict between production and safety. Enterprises which spend too much on safety will meet bankruptcy, and those not concerned with safety measures will meet with severe accidents and related damage. Inspired by James Reason’s theoretical framework, managers (n = 106) of commercial transport enterprises were asked about their attitudes towards safety management, what factors have contributed and their belief that further effort and investments in health, environment and safety (HES) measures will pay off. One half of the managers perceive HES work as too expensive and approximately one quarter assess mandatory HES work as compromising their competitiveness. One third of the managers do not find further safety measures than those already implemented necessary or remunerative. They claim that there are no other alternative ways of doing their activities and that there are no technical measures available that could meet outstanding safety challenges. Managers do acknowledge HES work as important for the reputation of the enterprise. The factor analysis gave five HES attitude factors: (I) concerned with formalities, (II) HES work improves health, environment and safety, (III) HES work is ineffective, (IV) HES regulation is appropriate, and (V) HES work can be improved.     

Swimming and feeding in Periphylla periphylla (Scyphozoa, Coronatae)

Some western Norwegian fjords host extraordinarily abundant and persistent populations of the mesopelagic, coronate scyphomedusa, Periphylla periphylla. In these environments, from late autumn to spring, the medusae undertake regular diel vertical migrations into surface waters. From unique observations obtained with a remotely operated vehicle (ROV), including observations made without artificial light, we observed that 90% of the medusae swam with their tentacles in aboral position. Stomach content analyses of surface-collected specimens revealed that the medusae ate mainly calanoid copepods, but ostracods and large euphausiids were also prominent components of their diets. The clearance rate potential of P. periphylla, assessed from in situ observations and stomach contents, was comparable to that of similar-sized, epipelagic gelatinous species. Our findings suggest that P. periphylla behave as active predators in surface waters.