Using a Bayesian Network to Summarize Variability in Numerical Long-Term Simulations of a Meteorological–Marine System: Drift Climatology of Assumed Oil Spills in the North Sea

Climate-related scientific analyses of meteorological–marine systems are often based on numerical long-term simulations at high spatial and temporal detail. Such comprehensive data sets require much resources and specific evaluation tools, which sometimes hampers their use within interdisciplinary projects. In the present study, we propose the use of a Bayesian network to represent simulated transports in the North Sea depending on variable external forcing in terms of conditional probabilities. Eliciting probability tables from multi-decadal numerical simulations ensures that all realistic weather and resulting sea state conditions are covered in agreement with the frequency of their occurrence. The probabilistic representation conveniently allows for conditioning numerical simulations on either external forcing (weather conditions) or observed transports. In the latter case, the Bayesian inversion formula becomes involved to transfer information in a direction opposite to causal dependencies encoded in the underlying mechanistic model. We show that simulated travel time distributions even allow for taking into account a substance’s specific half-life, although this was not an issue in the original passive tracer simulations.     

Greenhouse gas induced climate change

Simulations using global coupled climate models predict a climate change due to the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases and aerosols in the atmosphere. Both are associated with the burning of fossil fuels. There has been considerable debate if this postulated human influence is already evident. This paper gives an overview on some recent material on this question. One particular study using optimal fingerprints (Hegerl et al., 1996) is explained in more detail. In this study, an optimal fingerprint analysis is applied to temperature trend patterns over several decades. The results show the probability being less than 5% that the most recently observed 30 year trend is due to naturally occurring climate fluctuations. This result suggests that the present warming is caused by some external influence on climate, e.g. by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols. More work is needed to address the uncertainties in the magnitude of naturally occurring climate fluctuations. Also, other external influences on climate need to be investigated to uniquely attribute the present climate change to the human influence.     

Differential routing of ‘new’ nitrogen toward higher trophic levels within the marine food web of the Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea

Mesozooplankton communities in the meso-oligotrophic Gulf of Aqaba, Northern Red Sea, were investigated over a 2 years period (2005–2007) with emphasis on the trophodynamic relations among different taxonomic groups ranging from primary consumers to carnivorous predators. Based on stable isotope analyses, we present evidence for a strong contribution of ‘new’ nitrogen mainly derived from the utilization of aerosol nitrate by unicellular cyanobacteria especially during summer stratification and the propagation of exceptionally low δ¹⁵N onto higher trophic levels. In contrast, N₂-fixation by diazotrophs seemed to play a minor role, while the utilization of deep water nitrate by cyanobacteria and eukaryotic algae might be of importance during winter mixing. Based on ¹⁵N enrichment of consumers, clear differences between exclusively herbivorous organisms (doliolids, appendicularians, pteropods) and those with omnivorous feeding modes were detected. The category of omnivores comprised a large variety of taxons ranging from small meroplanktonic larvae to non-calanoid copepods (harpacticoids, cyclopoids and poecilostomatoids) that together form a diverse and complex community with overlapping feeding modes. In addition, distinct seasonality patterns in δ¹⁵N of copepods were found showing elevated trophic positions during periods of winter mixing, which were most pronounced for non-calanoid copepods. In general, feeding modes of omnivores appeared rather unselective, and relative contributions of heterotrophic protists and degraded material to the diets of non-calanoid copepods are discussed. At elevated trophic positions, four groups of carnivore predators were identified, while calanoid copepods and meroplanktonic predators showing lowest ¹⁵N enrichment within the carnivores. The direct link between ‘new’ nitrogen utilization by primary producers and the ¹⁵N enrichment of consumers in the planktonic food web of the Gulf of Aqaba emphasizes the significant contribution of ‘new’ nitrogen to the nitrogen budget and ecosystem functions in subtropical and tropical oligotrophic oceans.     

Coral mucus stable isotope composition and labeling: experimental evidence for mucus uptake by epizoic acoelomorph worms

Mucus released by scleractinian corals can act as an important energy and nutrient carrier in coral reef ecosystems, and a distinct isotopic signature would allow following the fate of this material. This study investigates the natural C and N stable isotopic signatures of mucus released by four scleractinian coral genera (Acropora, Fungia, Pocillopora and Stylophora) in comparison with those of suspended particulate organic matter (POM) in seawater of a Northern Red Sea fringing coral reef near Aqaba, Jordan. The natural δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N signatures of coral mucus differed significantly from seawater POM for the majority of seasonal comparisons, but were inappropriate for explicit tracing of mucus in the coral reef food web. Thus, a labeling technique using stable isotope tracers (¹³C and ¹⁵N) was developed that produced δ¹³C values of up to 122 ± 5‰ (mean ± SE) and δ¹⁵N of up to 2,100 ± 151‰ in mucus exuded by Fungia corals. ¹³C and ¹⁵N-enriched compounds were rapidly (within 3 h) and light-dependently transferred from the endosymbiotic zooxanthellae to the mucus-producing coral host. The traceability of ¹⁵N-labeled mucus was examined by evaluating its uptake and potential utilization by epizoic acoelomorph Waminoa worms naturally occurring on a range of scleractinian coral taxa. This tracer experiment resulted in uptake of coral mucus by the coral-associated acoelomorphs and further demonstrated the possibility to trace stable isotope-labeled coral mucus by revealing a new trophic pathway in coral reef ecosystems.     

Mechanistic origins of variability in phytoplankton dynamics. Part II: analysis of mesocosm blooms under climate change scenarios

Driving factors of phytoplankton spring blooms have been discussed since long, but rarely analyzed quantitatively. Here, we use a mechanistic size-based ecosystem model to reconstruct observations made during the Kiel mesocosm experiments (2005–2006). The model accurately hindcasts highly variable bloom developments including community shifts in cell size. Under low light, phytoplankton dynamics was mostly controlled by selective mesozooplankton grazing. Selective grazing also explains initial dominance of large diatoms under high light conditions. All blooms were mainly terminated by aggregation and sedimentation. Allometries in nutrient uptake capabilities led to a delayed, post-bloom dominance of small species. In general, biomass and trait dynamics revealed many mutual dependencies, while growth factors decoupled from the respective selective forces. A size shift induced by one factor often changed the growth dependency on other factors. Within climate change scenarios, these indirect effects produced large sensitivities of ecosystem fluxes to the size distribution of winter phytoplankton. These sensitivities exceeded those found for changes in vertical mixing, whereas temperature changes only had minimal impacts.     

Spring phenological responses of marine and freshwater plankton to changing temperature and light conditions

Shifts in the timing and magnitude of the spring plankton bloom in response to climate change have been observed across a wide range of aquatic systems. We used meta-analysis to investigate phenological responses of marine and freshwater plankton communities in mesocosms subjected to experimental manipulations of temperature and light intensity. Systems differed with respect to the dominant mesozooplankton (copepods in seawater and daphnids in freshwater). Higher water temperatures advanced the bloom timing of most functional plankton groups in both marine and freshwater systems. In contrast to timing, responses of bloom magnitudes were more variable among taxa and systems and were influenced by light intensity and trophic interactions. Increased light levels increased the magnitude of the spring peaks of most phytoplankton taxa and of total phytoplankton biomass. Intensified size-selective grazing of copepods in warming scenarios affected phytoplankton size structure and lowered intermediate (20–200?μm)-sized phytoplankton in marine systems. In contrast, plankton peak magnitudes in freshwater systems were unaffected by temperature, but decreased at lower light intensities, suggesting that filter feeding daphnids are sensitive to changes in algal carrying capacity as mediated by light supply. Our analysis confirms the general shift toward earlier blooms at increased temperature in both marine and freshwater systems and supports predictions that effects of climate change on plankton production will vary among sites, depending on resource limitation and species composition.     

Rüstungsaltlasten

In the investigation of arsenic warfare agents in ammunitions scrap, a differentiation of inorganic and organic arsenic compounds is necessary. This study describes a method that allows this differential determination. By GC/MS CLARK I, some stabilizers and several phenylarsenic compounds could be identified in chemical warfare pellets.     

PAK- und Schwermetall-Aufnahme in Getreide Wechselseitige Beeinflussung

Die wechselseitige Beeinflussung der PAK- und Schwermetall-Aufnahme (Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb) durch Weizen und Gerste von einer durch Munitionsrückst?nde belasteten Nutzfl?che wird beschrieben. Die nachgewiesenen PAK in der Pflanze k?nnten auf Membranver?nderungen der Wurzeln durch Schwermetalle zurückzuführen sein.