Performance Audits of EPA Protocol Gases and Inspection and Maintenance Calibration Gases

Air pollution abatement policies must be based on quantitative information on current and future emissions of pollutants. As emission projections uncertainties are inevitable and traditional statistical treatments of uncertainty are highly time/resources consuming, a simplified methodology for nonstatistical uncertainty estimation based on sensitivity analysis is presented in this work. The methodology was applied to the “with measures” scenario for Spain, concretely over the 12 highest emitting sectors regarding greenhouse gas and air pollutants emissions. Examples of methodology application for two important sectors (power plants, and agriculture and livestock) are shown and explained in depth. Uncertainty bands were obtained up to 2020 by modifying the driving factors of the 12 selected sectors and the methodology was tested against a recomputed emission trend in a low economic-growth perspective and official figures for 2010, showing a very good performance.

Implications:?A solid understanding and quantification of uncertainties related to atmospheric emission inventories and projections provide useful information for policy negotiations. However, as many of those uncertainties are irreducible, there is an interest on how they could be managed in order to derive robust policy conclusions. Taking this into account, a method developed to use sensitivity analysis as a source of information to derive nonstatistical uncertainty bands for emission projections is presented and applied to Spain. This method simplifies uncertainty assessment and allows other countries to take advantage of their sensitivity analyses.     

The Baltic Sea spring phytoplankton bloom in a changing climate: an experimental approach

The response of the Baltic Sea spring bloom was studied in mesocosm experiments, where temperatures were elevated up to 6°C above the present-day sea surface temperature of the spring bloom season. Four of the seven experiments were carried out at different light levels (32–202?Wh?m^?2 at the start of the experiments) in the different experimental years. In one further experiment, the factors light and temperature were crossed, and in one experiment, the factors density of overwintering zooplankton and temperature were crossed. Overall, there was a slight temporal acceleration of the phytoplankton spring bloom, a decline of peak biomass and a decline of mean cell size with warming. The temperature influence on phytoplankton bloom timing, biomass and size structure was qualitatively highly robust across experiments. The dependence of timing, biomass, and size structure on initial conditions was tested by multiple regression analysis of the y-temperature regressions with the candidate independent variables initial light, initial phytoplankton biomass, initial microzooplankton biomass, and initial mesozooplankton (=copepod) biomass. The bloom timing predicted for mean temperatures (5.28°C) depended on light. The peak biomass showed a strong positive dependence on light and a weaker negative dependence on initial copepod density. Mean phytoplankton cell size predicted for the mean temperature responded positively to light and negatively to copepod density. The anticipated mismatch between phytoplankton supply and food demand by newly hatched copepod nauplii occurred only under the combination of low light and warm temperatures. The analysis presented here confirms earlier conclusions about temperature responses that are based on subsets of our experimental series. However, only the comprehensive analysis across all experiments highlights the importance of the factor light.     

Null model analysis of species associations using abundance data

The influence of negative species interactions has dominated much of the literature on community assembly rules. Patterns of negative covariation among species are typically documented through null model analyses of binary presence/absence matrices in which rows designate species, columns designate sites, and the matrix entries indicate the presence (1) or absence (0) of a particular species in a particular site. However, the outcome of species interactions ultimately depends on population-level processes. Therefore, patterns of species segregation and aggregation might be more clearly expressed in abundance matrices, in which the matrix entries indicate the abundance or density of a species in a particular site. We conducted a series of benchmark tests to evaluate the performance of 14 candidate null model algorithms and six covariation metrics that can be used with abundance matrices. We first created a series of random test matrices by sampling a metacommunity from a lognormal species abundance distribution. We also created a series of structured matrices by altering the random matrices to incorporate patterns of pairwise species segregation and aggregation. We next screened each algorithm-index combination with the random and structured matrices to determine which tests had low Type I error rates and good power for detecting segregated and aggregated species distributions. In our benchmark tests, the best-performing null model does not constrain species richness, but assigns individuals to matrix cells proportional to the observed row and column marginal distributions until, for each row and column, total abundances are reached. Using this null model algorithm with a set of four covariance metrics, we tested for patterns of species segregation and aggregation in a collection of 149 empirical abundance matrices and 36 interaction matrices collated from published papers and posted data sets. More than 80% of the matrices were significantly segregated, which reinforces a previous meta-analysis of presence/absence matrices. However, using two of the metrics we detected a significant pattern of aggregation for plants and for the interaction matrices (which include plant-pollinator data sets). These results suggest that abundance matrices, analyzed with an appropriate null model, may be a powerful tool for quantifying patterns of species segregation and aggregation.     

Dredging impact on an urbanized Florida bayou: effects on benthos and algal-periphyton.

Environmental effects of dredging events have been uncommonly reported for shallow, residential estuaries characteristic of the Gulf of Mexico region. The objective of this study was to determine the impact of hydraulic dredging on an urbanized estuary. Physicochemical quality, benthic community composition, whole sediment toxicity, periphytic algal community composition and trace metal tissue quality were determined prior to and after dredging. The effects on surface water pH, dissolved oxygen, and temperature were negligible but photosynthetically active radiation was decreased at several stations. Dredging significantly reduced benthic diversity and density (P < 0.05). However, the sediments were not acutely toxic to the epibenthic, Americamysis bahia (formerly Mysidopsis bahia); survival averaged 93% (post-dredging) and to 98% (pre-dredging). There were several post-dredging taxonomic structural changes in the diatom-dominated, periphyton community but differences in mean density and three diversity indices were not significant. Trace metal concentration in periphyton after dredging were reduced from an average of 4-65% and significantly for mercury, zinc and chromium in several areas. It was concluded that the environmental impact of small-scale dredging events in urbanized near-coastal areas, based on the selected parameters, are likely to be localized and of short-term environmental consequence. The choice of the target biota, response parameters and chemical analysis are important considerations in the environmental impact assessment of these periodic episodic events.     

The influence of initial conditions on the propagation of smouldering fires in dust accumulations

A mathematical model is presented which allows one to treat the combined phenomena of heat, mass and species transfer by diffusion as they occur within smouldering fires in accumulations of dust or other solid bulk materials. The model was applied to predict self-ignition temperatures of five different dusts, where it could be shown that computed and experimental self-ignition temperatures coincide within an error margin of ±5%.

For smouldering fires, if initiated by either self-ignition or an ignition source, it could be shown that the temperature and the velocity at which the reaction front propagates both depend on the volume of the dust accumulation. In addition, the propagation velocity increases when the initial temperature of the dust accumulation is increased and decreases when the initial moisture content of the dust accumulation is increased.

Comparisons of the numerical model with experiments show that the smouldering propagation is mirrored qualitatively, while the accuracy of the computations strongly depends on the accuracy of the input parameters, namely on the apparent activation energy.     

Persistent toxic substances in soils and waters along an altitudinal gradient in the Laja River Basin, Central Southern Chile

In this study the levels and distribution of some persistent toxic substances (PTS) were investigated in soils, superficial water, and snow along an altitudinal gradient in the Laja River Basin (South Central Chile). The principal objective was to establish the basin's contamination status. The working hypothesis was that PTS levels and distribution in the basin are dependent on the degree of anthropogenic intervention. Fifteen PAHs, seven PCBs congeners, and three organochlorine pesticides were studied in superficial soil and water samples obtained along the altitudinal gradient and from a coastal reference station (Lleu-Lleu River). Soil samples were extracted using accelerated solvent extraction with acetone/cyclohexane (1:1) for PAHs and organochlorine compounds. Contaminants were extracted from water and snow samples by liquid-liquid extraction (LLE). PAH and organochlorine compound quantification was carried out by HPLC with fluorescence detection and GC-MS, respectively. PCBs in soils presented four different profiles in the altitudinal gradient, mainly determined by their chlorination degree; these profiles were not observed for the chlorinated pesticides. In general, the detected levels for the analyzed compounds were low for soils when compared with soil data from other remote areas of the world. Higher summation operator PAHs levels in soils were found in the station located at 227 masl (4243 ng g-1 TOC), in a forestry area and near a timber industry, where detected levels were up to eight times higher than the other sampling sites. In general, PAH levels and distribution seems to be dependent on local conditions. No pesticides were detected in surface waters. However, congeners of PCBs were detected in almost all sampling stations with the highest levels being found in Laja Lake waters, where 1.1 ng/l were observed. This concentration is two times higher than values reported for polluted lakes in the Northern Hemisphere. The presence of organochlorine compound in snow sampled at the highest elevation point of the basin is indicative of the transport and atmospheric deposition phenomena of alpha-HCH, gamma-HCH and PCB 52, with values being similar to the levels reported in Canadian snow samples. We conclude that environmental PTS substance levels are in general relatively low, although PAHs may be of concern in some areas of the basin.     

Pharmaceuticals in the river Elbe and its tributaries

Medicinal drugs were found to be ubiquitous in the river Elbe, its tributary the river Saale and in other tributaries at their points of entry into the Elbe. The distribution of concentration peaks along the investigated river stretches provides an indication that they are mainly due to the emission of treated waste water from municipal sewage treatment works. This leads to the conclusion that medicinal substances can be regarded as faecal indicators for water pollution caused by human activity. The main substances found in the Elbe in 1998 were diclofenac, ibuprofen and carbamazepine as well as various antibiotics and lipid regulators in the concentration range of <20-140 ng/l. The more thorough investigations carried out in 1999 and 2000 show that in addition to the drugs (phenazone, isopropyl-phenazone and paracetamol) metabolite concentrations contributed significantly to the total concentration of pharmaceuticals in the Elbe. The metamizole metabolites N-acetyl-4-aminoantipyrine (AAA) and N-formyl-4-aminoantipyrine (FAA) were found in concentrations from <20 to 939 ng/l. A multivariate statistical analysis revealed a high correlation in respect of the distribution of persistent substances. The metoprolol distribution throughout the Saale demonstrated that the tributaries cause either an increase (Weisse Elster, Unstrut, Ilm) or a reduction (Wipper, Bode) in the concentration, depending on the respective load of waste water. Wide scale sampling in Saxony during 2002 showed the ubiquitous occurrence of carbamazepine in surface waters. The ecotoxicological effects of this contamination cannot be assessed at present. This is due to the fact that no legal framework in respect of these medicinal drugs for human consumption has been established and therefore little research and no risk assessment has been carried out. Therefore it is urgently necessary to include at least the quantitatively most significant substances in the new assessment concept of the EC White Paper.     

Aerosol number size distributions within the exhaust plume of a diesel and a gasoline passenger car under on-road conditions and determination of emission factors

A new setup has been developed and built to measure number size distributions of exhaust particles and thermodynamic parameters under real traffic conditions. Measurements have been performed using a diesel and a gasoline passenger car driving with different speeds and engine conditions. Significant number of nucleation mode particles was found only during high load conditions, i.e. high car and engine speeds behind the diesel car. The number concentration of soot mode particles varied within a factor of two for different engine conditions while the concentration of nucleation mode particles varied up to two orders of magnitude. The results show that roadside measurements are still quite different from those behind the tailpipe. Beside dilution transformation processes within the first meter behind the tailpipe also play an important role, such as nucleation and growth. Emission factors were calculated and compared with those obtained by other studies. Emission factors for particles larger than 25 nm (primary emissions) varied within 1.1 × 10¹⁴ km^?1 and 2.7 × 10¹⁴ km^?1 for the diesel car and between 0.6 × 10¹² km^?1 and 3.5 × 10¹² km^?1 for the gasoline car. The advantage of these measurements is the exhaust dilution under atmospheric conditions and the size-resolved measurement technique to divide into primary emitted and secondary formed particles.     

Assessment of five bioaccessibility assays for predicting the efficacy of petroleum hydrocarbon biodegradation in aged contaminated soils

In this study, the bioaccessibility of petroleum hydrocarbons in aged contaminated soils (1.6-67gkg(-1)) was assessed using four non-exhaustive extraction techniques (100% 1-butanol, 100% 1-propanol, 50% 1-propanol in water and hydroxypropyl-β-cyclodextrin) and the persulfate oxidation method. Using linear regression analysis, residual hydrocarbon concentrations following bioaccessibility assessment were compared to residual hydrocarbon concentrations following biodegradation in laboratory-scale microcosms in order to determine whether bioaccessibility assays can predict the endpoint of hydrocarbon biodegradation. The relationship between residual hydrocarbon concentrations following microcosm biodegradation and bioaccessibility assessment was linear (r(2)=0.71-0.97) indicating that bioaccessibility assays have the potential to predict the extent of hydrocarbon biodegradation. However, the slope of best fit varied depending on the hydrocarbon fractional range assessed. For the C(10)-C(14) hydrocarbon fraction, the slope of best fit ranged from 0.12 to 0.27 indicating that the non-exhaustive or persulfate oxidation methods removed 3.5-8 times more hydrocarbons than biodegradation. Conversely, for the higher molecular weight hydrocarbon fractions (C(29)-C(36) and C(37)-C(40)), biodegradation removed up to 3.3 times more hydrocarbons compared to bioaccessibility assays with the resulting slope of best fit ranging from 1.0-1.9 to 2.0-3.3 respectively. For mid-range hydrocarbons (C(15)-C(28)), a slope of approximately one was obtained indicating that C(15)-C(28) hydrocarbon removal by these bioaccessibility assays may approximate the extent of biodegradation. While this study demonstrates the potential of predicting biodegradation endpoints using bioaccessibility assays, limitations of the study include a small data set and that all soils were collected from a single site, presumably resulting from a single contamination source. Further evaluation and validation is required using soils from a range of hydrocarbon contamination sources in order to develop robust assays for predicting bioremediation endpoints in the field.     

Intersection AEB implementation strategies for left turn across path crashes

Abstract

Objective: Left turn across path with traffic from the opposite direction (LTAP/OD) is the second most frequent car-to-car intersection crash type after straight crossing path (SCP) in Germany and the United States. Intersection automated emergency braking (AEB) for passenger cars can address these crashes.

This study investigates 2 implementation strategies of intersection AEB addressing LTAP/OD crashes: (1) only the turning car is equipped with an intersection AEB and (2) turning and straight-heading cars are equipped with an intersection AEB. For each strategy, the influence of a safety zone around the vehicles that should not be entered is evaluated in terms of accident avoidance, injury mitigation, and change in velocity (delta-V) of remaining accidents. Results are given as a function of market penetration.

Methods: A total of 372 LTAP/OD crashes from the time series precrash matrix (PCM), a subsample of the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS), were resimulated in the PRediction of Accident Evolution by Diversification of Influence factors in COmputer simulation (PRAEDICO) simulation framework. A Kudlich-Slibar rigid-body impact model and an injury risk curve derived from GIDAS were used to predict remaining moderate to fatal (Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale [MAIS] 2?+?F) injuries among car occupants.

Results: With a safety zone of 0.2 m, when the turning vehicle only was equipped with an intersection AEB, 59% of the crashes were avoided at a 100% market penetration. With both vehicles equipped the percentage increased to 77%. MAIS 2?+?F injured occupants were reduced by 60 and 76%, respectively. Considering both the turning and the straight-heading vehicles, the delta-V decreased strongly with market penetration in remaining left-side impacts but only slightly in remaining frontal and right-side impacts. Eliminating the safety zone substantially decreases effectiveness in all conditions.

Conclusions: Implementation strategy and safety zone definition strongly influence the real-life performance of intersection AEB. AEB should be applied not only for the turning vehicle but also for the straight-going vehicle to benefit from the full potential. Situationally appropriate safety zone definitions, in line with human hazard perception, need more attention and are a key to balance true positive and false positive performance. Remaining delta-V does not decrease broadly; hence, there is no evidence that future LTAP/OD crashes will be generally of lower severity. This highlights the need for continuous development of in-crash protection.