Modeling species-habitat relationships with spatially autocorrelated observation data.

Spatial autocorrelation in wildlife observation data arises when extrinsic environmental processes and patterns that influence the spatial distribution of wildlife are themselves spatially structured, or when species are subject to intrinsic population processes, causing contagion or dispersion effects. Territoriality, Allee effects, dispersal limitations, and social clustering are examples of intrinsic processes. Both forms of autocorrelation can violate the assumptions of generalized linear regression models, resulting in biased estimation of model coefficients and diminished predictive performance. Such consequences may be avoided for extrinsic autocorrelation when autocorrelated environmental variables are available for use as model covariates, whereas intrinsic spatial autocorrelation requires an alternative modeling approach. The autologistic model provides an approach suited to the binary observations often obtained in wildlife surveys, but its performance has not been tested across widely varying sampling intensities or strengths of intrinsic spatial structure. Here we use simulated data to test the autologistic model under a range of sampling conditions. The autologistic model obtains better fits and substantially better predictive performance than the standard logistic regression model over the full range of sampling designs and intensities tested. We provide a simple Bayesian implementation of the autologistic model, which until now has not been achieved with standard statistical software alone. A step-by-step procedure is given for characterizing and modeling spatial autocorrelation in binary observation data, along with computer code for fitting autologistic models in WinBUGS, a freeware Bayesian analysis package. This approach avoids normal approximations to the pseudo-likelihood, in contrast to previous Bayesian applications of the autologistic model. We provide a sample application of the autologistic model, fitted to survey data for a gliding marsupial in southeastern Australia.     

Biological invasions: recommendations for U.S. policy and management.

The Ecological Society of America has evaluated current U.S. national policies and practices on biological invasions in light of current scientific knowledge. Invasions by harmful nonnative species are increasing in number and area affected; the damages to ecosystems, economic activity, and human welfare are accumulating. Without improved strategies based on recent scientific advances and increased investments to counter invasions, harm from invasive species is likely to accelerate. Federal leadership, with the cooperation of state and local governments, is required to increase the effectiveness of prevention of invasions, detect and respond quickly to new potentially harmful invasions, control and slow the spread of existing invasions, and provide a national center to ensure that these efforts are coordinated and cost effective. Specifically, the Ecological Society of America recommends that the federal government take the following six actions: (1) Use new information and practices to better manage commercial and other pathways to reduce the transport and release of potentially harmful species; (2) Adopt more quantitative procedures for risk analysis and apply them to every species proposed for importation into the country; (3) Use new cost-effective diagnostic technologies to increase active surveillance and sharing of information about invasive species so that responses to new invasions can be more rapid and effective; (4) Create new legal authority and provide emergency funding to support rapid responses to emerging invasions; (5) Provide funding and incentives for cost-effective programs to slow the spread of existing invasive species in order to protect still uninvaded ecosystems, social and industrial infrastructure, and human welfare; and (6) Establish a National Center for Invasive Species Management (under the existing National Invasive Species Council) to coordinate and lead improvements in federal, state, and international policies on invasive species. Recent scientific and technical advances provide a sound basis for more cost-effective national responses to invasive species. Greater investments in improved technology and management practices would be more than repaid by reduced damages from current and future invasive species. The Ecological Society of America is committed to assist all levels of government and provide scientific advice to improve all aspects of invasive-species management.     

Bottom-up regulation of plant community structure in an aridland ecosystem

We conducted a long-term rodent exclosure experiment in native grass- and shrub-dominated vegetation to evaluate the importance of top-down and bottom-up controls on plant community structure in a low-productivity aridland ecosystem. Using multiple regressions and analysis of covariance, we assessed how bottom-up precipitation pulses cascade through vegetation to affect rodent populations, how rodent populations affect plant community structure, and how rodents alter rates of plant community change over time. Our findings showed that bottom-up pulses cascade through the system, increasing the abundances of plants and rodents, and that rodents exerted no control on plant community structure and rate of change in grass-dominated vegetation, and only limited control in shrub-dominated vegetation. These results were discussed in the context of top-down effects on plant communities across broad gradients of primary productivity. We conclude that bottom-up regulation maintains this ecosystem in a state of low primary productivity that constrains the abundance of consumers such that they exert limited influence on plant community structure and dynamics.     

Denitrification in nitrate-rich streams: application of N2:Ar and 15N-tracer methods in intact cores.

Rates of benthic denitrification were measured using two techniques, membrane inlet mass spectrometry (MIMS) and isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS), applied to sediment cores from two NO3(-)-rich streams draining agricultural land in the upper Mississippi River Basin. Denitrification was estimated simultaneously from measurements of N2:Ar (MIMS) and 15N[N2] (IRMS) after the addition of low-level 15NO3- tracer (15N:N = 0.03-0.08) in stream water overlying intact sediment cores. Denitrification rates ranged from about 0 to 4400 micromol N x m(-2) x h(-1) in Sugar Creek and from 0 to 1300 micromol N x m(-2) x h(-1) in Iroquois River, the latter of which possesses greater streamflow discharge and a more homogeneous streambed and water column. Within the uncertainties of the two techniques, there is good agreement between the MIMS and IRMS results, which indicates that the production of N2 by the coupled process of nitrification/denitrification was relatively unimportant and surface-water NO3- was the dominant source of NO3- for benthic denitrification in these streams. Variation in stream NO3- concentration (from about 20 micromol/L during low discharge to 1000 micromol/L during high discharge) was a significant control of benthic denitrification rates, judging from the more abundant MIMS data. The interpretation that NO3- concentration directly affects denitrification rate was corroborated by increased rates of denitrification in cores amended with NO3-. Denitrification in Sugar Creek removed < or = 11% per day of the instream NO3- in late spring and removed roughly 15-20% in late summer. The fraction of NO3- removed in Iroquois River was less than that of Sugar Creek. Although benthic denitrification rates were relatively high during periods of high stream flow, when NO3 concentrations were also high, the increase in benthic denitrification could not compensate for the much larger increase in stream NO3- fluxes during high flow. Consequently, fractional NO3- losses were relatively low during high flow.     

Simulation of germination of pioneer species along an experimental drought gradient

The germination of ten plant species from the Iberian Peninsula was assessed along a water deficit gradient between -0. 1652 (moist) and -0.4988 MPa (dry) of osmotic potential, created by addition of increasing concentrations of polyethylene glycol (PEG 6000) to distilled water in which plants were grown hydroponically. The level and rate of germination of Daucus carota and Thapsia villosa significantly decreased with decreasing psi. Seeds of Dactylis glomerata and Dittrichia viscosa had positive germination responses to low osmotic potentials; germination of Epilobium hirsutum was not affected by osmotic potential. Germination of Medicago arabica, Cynosurus cristatus, Cistus ladanifer and Cistus albidus, was no favored by the addition of polyethylene glycol (PEG). Germination of Foeniculum vulgare and Thapsia villosa was inhibited by PEG.     

Inhibition of Amazon Deforestation and Fire by Parks and Indigenous Lands

Abstract:  Conservation scientists generally agree that many types of protected areas will be needed to protect tropical forests. But little is known of the comparative performance of inhabited and uninhabited reserves in slowing the most extreme form of forest disturbance: conversion to agriculture. We used satellite-based maps of land cover and fire occurrence in the Brazilian Amazon to compare the performance of large (>10,000 ha) uninhabited (parks) and inhabited (indigenous lands, extractive reserves, and national forests) reserves. Reserves significantly reduced both deforestation and fire. Deforestation was 1.7 (extractive reserves) to 20 (parks) times higher along the outside versus the inside of the reserve perimeters and fire occurrence was 4 (indigenous lands) to 9 (national forests) times higher. No strong difference in the inhibition of deforestation ( p = 0.11) or fire ( p = 0.34) was found between parks and indigenous lands. However, uninhabited reserves tended to be located away from areas of high deforestation and burning rates. In contrast, indigenous lands were often created in response to frontier expansion, and many prevented deforestation completely despite high rates of deforestation along their boundaries. The inhibitory effect of indigenous lands on deforestation was strong after centuries of contact with the national society and was not correlated with indigenous population density. Indigenous lands occupy one-fifth of the Brazilian Amazon—five times the area under protection in parks—and are currently the most important barrier to Amazon deforestation. As the protected-area network expands from 36% to 41% of the Brazilian Amazon over the coming years, the greatest challenge will be successful reserve implementation in high-risk areas of frontier expansion as indigenous lands are strengthened. This success will depend on a broad base of political support.     

Conservation Benefits of Temperate Marine Protected Areas: Variation among Fish Species

Abstract:  Marine protected areas, and other fishery management systems that impart partial or total protection from fishing, are increasingly advocated as an essential management tool to ensure the sustainable use of marine resources. Beneficial effects for fish species are well documented for tropical and reef systems, but the effects of marine protected areas remain largely untested in temperate waters. We compared trends in sport-fishing catches of nine fish species in an area influenced by a large (500-km²) towed-fishing-gear restriction zone and in adjacent areas under conventional fishery management controls. Over the period 1973–2002 the mean reported weight of above-average-sized (trophy) fish of species with early age at maturity and limited home range was greatest within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. The reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature early also declined less and more slowly over time within the area influenced by the fishing-gear restriction zone. Importantly, the mean reported weight of trophy fish of species that mature late and those that undertake extensive spatial movements declined at the same rate in all areas. Hence these species are likely to require protected areas >500 km² for effective protection. Our results also indicated that fish species with a localized distribution or high site fidelity may require additional protection from sport fishing to prevent declines in the number or size of fish within the local population.     

Invasion in a diversity hotspot: exotic cover and native richness in the Californian serpentine flora

Exotic species have been observed to be more prevalent in sites where the richness of native species is highest, possibly reflecting variation among sites in resources, propagule supply, heterogeneity, or disturbance. However, such a pattern leaves unclear whether natives at species-rich sites are subject to especially severe impacts from exotics as a result. We considered this question using path models in which relationships between exotic cover and native richness were evaluated in the presence of correlated environmental factors. At 109 sites on serpentine soils across California, USA, exotic cover was positively correlated with total native herbaceous richness and was negatively correlated with the richness of both serpentine-endemic and rare native herbs. However, in path models that accounted for the influences of soil chemistry, disturbance, overstory cover, and regional rainfall and elevation, we found no indication that exotic cover reduced any component of native herb richness. Rather, our results indicated similarities and differences in the conditions favoring exotic, native, endemic, and rare species. Our results suggest that, in spite of some localized impacts, exotic species are not exerting a detectable overall effect on the community richness of the unique native flora of Californian serpentine.     

Potential nitrogen constraints on soil carbon sequestration under low and elevated atmospheric CO2

The interaction between nitrogen cycling and carbon sequestration is critical in predicting the consequences of anthropogenic increases in atmospheric CO2 (hereafter, Ca). The progressive N limitation (PNL) theory predicts that carbon sequestration in plants and soils with rising Ca may be constrained by the availability of nitrogen in many ecosystems. Here we report on the interaction between C and N dynamics during a four-year field experiment in which an intact C3/C4 grassland was exposed to a gradient in Ca from 200 to 560 micromol/mol. There were strong species effects on decomposition dynamics, with C loss positively correlated and N mineralization negatively correlated with Ca for litter of the C3 forb Solanum dimidiatum, whereas decomposition of litter from the C4 grass Bothriochloa ischaemum was unresponsive to Ca. Both soil microbial biomass and soil respiration rates exhibited a nonlinear response to Ca, reaching a maximum at approximately 440 micromol/mol Ca. We found a general movement of N out of soil organic matter and into aboveground plant biomass with increased Ca. Within soils we found evidence of C loss from recalcitrant soil C fractions with narrow C:N ratios to more labile soil fractions with broader C:N ratios, potentially due to decreases in N availability. The observed reallocation of N from soil to plants over the last three years of the experiment supports the PNL theory that reductions in N availability with rising Ca could initially be overcome by a transfer of N from low C:N ratio fractions to those with higher C:N ratios. Although the transfer of N allowed plant production to increase with increasing Ca, there was no net soil C sequestration at elevated Ca, presumably because relatively stable C is being decomposed to meet microbial and plant N requirements. Ultimately, if the C gained by increased plant production is rapidly lost through decomposition, the shift in N from older soil organic matter to rapidly decomposing plant tissue may limit net C sequestration with increased plant production.