Using fuzzy set theory to address the uncertainty of susceptibility to drought

This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4) defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility, in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’.     

Molecular phylogeny and population structure of tideland snails in the genus Cerithidea around Japan

Phylogenetic relationships and genetic population structures were analyzed for tideland gastropods in the genus Cerithidea around Japan on the basis of partial sequence of the mitochondrial COI gene. Large genetic divergence was shown between individuals of Cerithidea cingulata in the southern Ryukyus and those in the central Ryukyus and the Japanese Islands. Haplotypes of C. cingulata from the Japanese Islands were paraphyletic with the exclusion of a monophyletic group from the central Ryukyus. Genetic differentiation of C. cingulata was also detected between Amami-Oshima Island and Okinawajima Island. No genetic divergence was found between Cerithidea rhizophorarum in the Japanese Islands and its subspecies C. rhizophorarum morchii in the Ryukyu Islands. The lack of genetic divergence of Cerithidea largillierti between continental China and Japan suggests relatively recent migration between the Japanese Islands and the Asian continent. For all three Cerithidea species distributed in both the Japanese Islands and the Ryukyu Islands, the Tokara Gap and the Kerama Gap were shown to have acted as barriers to the dispersal.     

Competitive interactions among sessile organisms in Tomioka Bay,south Japan: importance of light conditions on the panel surface

Interspecific competitive interactions among sessile epibenthos were studied by suspending PVC panels at Tomioka Bay, south Japan, for a maximum period of 16 mo. Interactions were monitored from photographs of a fixed area of the panels. Four panels were suspended during two different months in autumn 1991, and the development of the community was followed until December 1992. Altogether, 6511 interspecific overgrowth interactions were recorded, of which 37 resulted in standoffs and the rest in overgrowths. The competitive relationship observed in this sessile assemblage followed the pattern of a hierarchy with numerous backloops. Among the 36 species, belonging to the seven taxonomic groups encountered during the study, the colonial ascidian Didemnum moseleyi was recorded as the dominant species (with respect to competitive ability) while the barnacle Balanus trigonus was the weakest species. The month of panel exposure and whether or not the panel surface was shaded had a significant influence on the competitive ability of the sessile organisms. The order of hierarchy of the most dominant species changed with the month of panel submersion and its light conditions. Among the several abundant species tested, longer residence times were recorded for serpulid worms than for the colonial species. A significant, positive relationship was obtained between the areal cover of competitively dominant sessile organisms and the number of their interspecific interactions. From the short residence time of sessile organisms and the significant relationship between their areal cover and number of interspecific interactions, it is concluded that the interspecific interactions played important role in the species succession.     

Stability of a Coal Waste Artificial Reef

The feasibility of using U.K. coal-fired power station waste materials for artificial reef production is being examined. in June, 1989, an experimental artificial reef was constructed in Poole Bay, off the central south coast of the U.K., using three different mixtures of pulverised fuel ash (PFA), flue gas desulphurisation (FGD) gypsum and slurry, stabilized with cement and formed into blocks. Fifty tonnes of 40 × 20 × 20 cm blocks were formed into eight conical reef units replicating three different PFA/gypsum mixtures and one concrete control. the reef structure is 10m below chart datum on a flat sandy sea-bed.

Combustion of coal concentrates the heavy metal content in the resultant ash. the purpose of stabilization of the ash as blocks is twofold: to immobilize heavy metals (or other components) and to provide hard substratum for the attachment of organisms. to examine the effectiveness of this stabilization and hence the environmental compatibility of the block materials, heavy metal (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Mn, Ni, Zn) content of the blocks has been monitored routinely over two years, to determine leaching rates. Sectional profiles indicate partial replacement of calcium content by magnesium. Associated with this there has also been some redistribution of heavy metals. Only in the case of cadmium has there been a detectable loss from the surface of blocks. Chromium and manganese concentrations appear to have increased. the metal content of the reef epibiota (including ascidians, Ascidia mentula; hydroids, Halecium spp.; bryozoans, Bugula spp. and red algae) growing on the ash blocks has been compared to that of epibiota attached to the concrete controls and surrounding sea-bed. to date no evidence of excess bioaccumulation of metals has been detected.

The physical integrity of the ash reef blocks has been maintained. There is evidence that the blocks are increasing in compressive strength.

An indication of the fishery enhancement potential of the experimental structure is given by the presence of eight commercially fished species (crustaceans and molluscs) including lobsters (Homarus gammarus).