DESIGN OF AN INDEX OF WATER QUALITY1

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the formulation of an Index of Water Quality to evaluate the level of pollution in fresh water. A Four-Round Delphi equation, using a panel of seven nationally recognized water scientists, was performed to ascertain the pollutants to be included in the index, the relationship between the quantity of these pollutants in the water and the resulting quality of the water, and the importance of each pollution variable to each water use as well as to overall pollution. A multiplicative index was used to bring the pollutants together into one system.     

A special adaptation to planktonic life in larvae of the Cassoidea (=Tonnoidea) (Gastropoda)

Living veligers of the Cassoidea have been observed to use a mantle appendage to form and resorb periostracum. Anatomical and histological examinations of a ranellid (Cymatium sp.) larva collected from the Red Sea in 1987 revealed the structure and location of the pallial appendage. The mantle edges of juvenile or adult species of the Cassoidea do not show a comparable specialization. It is demonstrated that cassoid larval conch characters are sufficient to prove the existence of a pallial appendage without anatomical confirmation. A mantle appendage is not known from teleplanic (long-living planktic) veligers of other gastropod superfamilies. In cases where the larval strategies of the latter are known they are totally different. Therefore it is suggested that the adaptation of cassoid larvae to pelagic life is unique among gastropods representing an autapomorphic character of the superfamily.     

Geocybernetics: Controlling a Complex Dynamical System Under Uncertainty

   Global change, i.e. the mega-process radically transforming the relationship between nature and human civilization since the end of World War II, is investigated from the point of view of systems analysis. It is argued that this unbridled process should rather be domesticated by planetary control strategies transpiring from a new science called “geocybernetics”. The formal aspects of geocybernetic theory are sketched and illustrated in a tutorial theatre world reflecting the overall environment and development problematic. Within this setting a straightforward operationalization of the sweeping “sustainable development” ideal through a set of concise paradigms can be achieved. Evidence is provided that geocybernetics is actually feasible on the basis of earth system modelling and fuzzy-control techniques.     

Simplicity versus efficiency in sampling designs and estimation

Simplicity and efficiency in design and estimation are all important in deciding on sampling strategies. A simple model is given and illustrated for four practical situations to show how a good sampling strategy should be selected.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

A first trimester trisomy 13/trisomy 18 risk algorithm combining fetal nuchal translucency thickness,maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A

This study examines 45 cases of trisomy 13 and 59 cases of trisomy 18 and reports an algorithm to identify pregnancies with a fetus affected by trisomy 13 or 18 by a combination of maternal age fetal nuchal translucency (NT) thickness, and maternal serum free β-hCG and PAPP-A at 11–14 weeks of gestation. In this mixed trisomy group the median MoM NT was increased at 2.819, whilst the median MoMs for free β-hCG and PAPP-A were reduced at 0.375 and 0.201 respectively. We predict that with the use of the combined trisomy 13 and 18 algorithm and a risk cut-off of 1 in 150 will for a 0.3% false positive rate allow 95% of these chromosomal defects to be identified at 11–14 weeks. Such algorithms will enhance existing first trimester screening algorithms for trisomy 21. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A study of the growth and decay of cigarette smoke NOx in ambient air under controlled conditions

The amount of NO₂ and NO produced by the machine smoking of cigarettes was determined for 15 commercial Canadian brands. Average yield of NO was 1.44 μmoles or about 13% of the average reported for American cigarettes. Levels of NO₂ were less than 12% of NO and were probably due to the oxidation of NO. In order to assess the contribution of tobacco smoke to levels of NO in ambient air, 5 brands of cigarettes were smoked in 27 cubic meter controlled environment room. Ventilation conditions were either 2.5 or 5.0 air changes per hour (ACH) and each experiment was replicated 3 times for a total of 30 experiments. Ventilation rates of 0.3 and 1.5 ACH were also selected in a second series of experiments in which only one brand of cigarette was smoked. Least squares estimates for the effective ventilation rates were obtained in the usual manner after linearizing the decay portion of the NO time curve. In each of the experiments, the regression explained at least 95% of the variation in the levels of NO with time. Loss of NO due to factors other than ventilation appeared to be constant within experimental error and averaged 2.22 ACH. Equilibrium values for NO were grossly underestimated when results from currently accepted proecedures for smoke analysis were used in modeling the growth and decay of NO. Goodness-of-fit was improved when equilibrium values were estimated based on observed levels in ambient air. This approach may be more suitable for evaluating the potential contribution of cigarette smoke to levels of indoor air pollutants.