Identifying water resources management strategies in adaptation to climate change under uncertainty

In this study, an integrated simulation-based allocation modeling system (ISAMS) is developed for identifying water resources management strategies in response to climate change. The ISAMS incorporates global climate models (GCMs), a semi-distributed land use-based runoff process (SLURP) model, and a multistage interval-stochastic programming (MISP) approach within a general framework. The ISAMS can not only handle uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and interval values but also reveal climate change impacts on water resources allocation under different projections of GCMs. The ISAMS is then applied to the Kaidu-kongque watershed with cold arid characteristics in the Tarim River Basin (the largest inland watershed basin in China) for demonstrating its efficiency. Results reveal that different climate change models corresponding to various projections (e.g., precipitation and temperature) would lead to changed water resources allocation patterns. Variations in water availability and demand due to uncertainties could result in different water allocation targets and shortages. A variety of decision alternatives about water allocations adaptive to climate change are generated under combinations of different global climate models and ecological water release plans. These findings indicate that understanding the uncertainties in water resources system, building adaptive methods for generating sustainable water allocation patterns, and taking actions for mitigating water shortage problems are key adaptation strategies responding to climate change.     

Impact assessment of climate policy on Poland's power sector

This article addresses the impact of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on Poland’s conventional energy sector in 2008–2020 and further till 2050. Poland is a country with over 80% dependence on coal in the power sector being under political pressure of the European Union’s (EU) ambitious climate policy. The impact of the increase of the European Emission Allowance (EUA) price on fossil fuel power sector has been modelled for different scenarios. The innovation of this article consists in proposing a methodology of estimation actual costs and benefits of power stations in a country with a heavily coal-dependent power sector in the process of transition to a low-carbon economy. Strong political and economic interdependence of coal and power sector has been demonstrated as well as the impact caused by the EU ETS participation in different technology groups of power plants. It has been shown that gas-fuelled combined heat and power units are less vulnerable to the EU ETS-related costs, whereas the hard coal-fired plants may lose their profitability soon after 2020. Lignite power plants, despite their high emissivity, may longer remain in operation owing to low operational costs. Additionally, the results of long-term, up to 2050, modelling of Poland’s energy sector supported an unavoidable need of deep decarbonisation of the power sector to meet the post-Paris climate objectives. It has been concluded that investing in coal-based power capacity may lead to a carbon lock-in of the power sector. Finally, the overall costs of such a transformation have been discussed and confronted with the financial support offered by the EU. The whole consideration has been made in a wide context of changes ongoing globally in energy markets and compared with some other countries seeking transformation paths from coal. Poland’s case can serve as a lesson for all countries trying to reduce coal dependence in power generation. Reforms in the energy sector shall from the very beginning be an essential part of a sustainable transition of the whole nation’s economy. They must scale the power capacity to the future demand avoiding stranded costs. The reforms must be wide-ranging, based on a wide political consensus and not biased against the coal sector. Future energy mix and corresponding technologies shall be carefully designed, matched and should remain stable in the long-term perspective. Coal-based power capacity being near the end of its lifetime provides an economically viable option to commence a fuel switch and the following technology replacement. Real benefits and costs of the energy transition shall be fairly allocated to all stakeholders and communicated to the society. The social costs and implications in coal-dependent regions may be high, especially in the short-term perspective, but then the transformation will bring profits to the whole society.     

Congenital syphilis: A contemporary update on an ancient disease

Congenital syphilis (CS) rates reached a 20-year high in the United States in 2018. Unlike previous years, most babies diagnosed with CS were born to mothers who received prenatal care, indicative of the need for better provider education and guideline adherence. Current rates suggest that screening for syphilis should be performed at the first prenatal care visit and twice during the third trimester. There are two diagnostic algorithms available for use in the United States (traditional and reverse) and providers must understand how to perform each algorithm. Treatment should be administered according to stage of syphilis per Centers for Disease Control recommendations with best neonatal outcomes seen when treatment is initiated >30 days before delivery. Benzathine Penicillin G remains the only recommended treatment of syphilis during pregnancy. In viable pregnancies, a pretreatment ultrasound is recommended to identify sonographic evidence of fetal infection and treatment should be initiated with continuous fetal monitoring to evaluate for the Jarisch-Herxheimer reaction which can cause preterm labor and fetal distress. After adequate syphilotherapy, a fourfold decline in maternal nontreponemal titers may not be observed by delivery and does not correlate with rates of CS.     

Anatomical localization and stereoisomeric composition of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tribolium castaneum</Emphasis> aggregation pheromones

We report that the abdominal epidermis and associated tissues are the predominant sources of male-produced pheromones in the red flour beetle, Tribolium castaneum and, for the first time, describe the stereoisomeric composition of the natural blend of isomers of the aggregation pheromone 4,8-dimethyldecanal (DMD) in this important pest species. Quantitative analyses via gas chromatography–mass spectrometry showed that the average amount of DMD released daily by single feeding males of T. castaneum was 878 ± 72 ng (SE). Analysis of different body parts identified the abdominal epidermis as the major source of aggregation pheromone; the thorax was a minor source, while no DMD was detectable in the head. No internal organs or obvious male-specific glands were associated with pheromone deposition. Complete separation of all four stereoisomers of DMD was achieved following oxidation to the corresponding acid, derivatization with (1R, 2R)- and (1S, 2S)-2-(anthracene-2,3-dicarboximido)cyclohexanol to diastereomeric esters, and their separation on reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatography at −54°C. Analysis of the hexane eluate from Porapak-Q-collected volatiles from feeding males revealed the presence of all four isomers (4R,8R)/(4R,8S)/(4S,8R)/(4S,8S) at a ratio of approximately 4:4:1:1. A walking orientation bioassay in a wind tunnel with various blends of the four synthetic isomers further indicated that the attractive potency of the reconstituted natural blend of 4:4:1:1 was equivalent to that of the natural pheromone and greater than that of the 1:1 blend of (4R,8R)/(4R,8S) used in commercial lures.     

Prenatal DNA Sequencing: Clinical,Counseling, and Diagnostic Laboratory Considerations

Clinical diagnostic laboratories are producing next-generation sequencing-based test results that are becoming increasingly incorporated into patient care. Whole genome and exome sequencing on fetal material derived from amniocytes, chorionic villi, or products of conception is starting to be offered clinically in specialized centers, but it has not yet become routine practice. The technical, interpretation, and ethical challenges are greatest in the area of prenatal medicine because the fetus has a limited health history, and the physical examination is only indirectly available via prenatal sonography. Here, we provide an overview of these challenges and highlight the clinical utility, reporting, and counseling issues associated with prenatal DNA sequencing. Future considerations are also discussed. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Low abundance of long-tongued pollinators leads to pollen limitation in four specialized hawkmoth-pollinated plants in the Atlantic Rain forest,Brazil

Long-tubed hawkmoth-pollinated species present some of the most remarkable examples of floral specialization depending exclusively on long-tongued hawkmoths for sexual reproduction. Nonetheless, long-tongued hawkmoths do not rely exclusively on specialized plants as nectar sources, which may limit sexual reproduction through pollen limitation. However, very few studies have quantified the level of pollen limitation in plants with highly specialized floral traits in tropical regions. In this context, we studied four sympatric hawkmoth-pollinated species in a highland Atlantic Rain forest and assessed pollen limitation and their dependence on pollinators by analyzing the floral biology, breeding system, pollination mechanisms, and abundance of long-tongued pollinators. We showed that the four species are self-compatible, but are completely dependent on long-tongued hawkmoths to set fruits, and that flower visitation was infrequent in all plant species. Pollen limitation indices ranged from 0.53 to 0.96 showing that fruit set is highly limited by pollen receipt. Long-tongued moths are much less abundant and comprise only one sixth of the hawkmoth fauna. Pollen analyses of 578 sampled moths revealed that hawkmoths visited ca. 80 plant species in the community, but only two of the four species studied. Visited plants included a long-tubed hawkmoth-pollinated species endemic to the lowland forest ca. 15–20 km away from the study site. Specialization index (H ₂ ′?=?0.20) showed that community-level interactions between hawkmoths and plants are generalized. We suggest that sexual reproduction of these highly specialized hawkmoth-pollinated species is impaired by competition among plants for pollinators, in conjunction with the low abundance and diversity of long-tongued pollinators.     

Some Perspectives on the Risks and Benefits of Biological Control of Invasive Alien Plants in the Management of Natural Ecosystems

Globally, invasions by alien plants are rapidly increasing in extent and severity, leading to large-scale ecosystem degradation. Weed biological control offers opportunities to arrest or even reverse these trends and, although it is not always effective or appropriate as a management strategy, this practice has an excellent record of safety and many notable successes over two centuries. In recent years, growing concerns about the potential for unintended, non-target damage by biological control agents, and fears about other unpredictable effects on ecosystems, have created an increasingly demanding risk-averse regulatory environment. This development may be counter-productive because it tends to overemphasize potential problems and ignores or underestimates the benefits of weed biological control; it offers no viable alternatives; and it overlooks the inherent risks of a decision not to use biological control. The restoration of badly degraded ecosystems to a former pristine condition is not a realistic objective, but the protection of un-invaded or partial restoration of invaded ecosystems can be achieved safely, at low cost and sustainably through the informed and responsible application of biological control. This practice should therefore be given due consideration when management of invasive alien plants is being planned. This discussion paper provides a perspective on the risks and benefits of classical weed biological control, and it is aimed at assisting environmental managers in their deliberations on whether or not to use this strategy in preference, or as a supplement to other alien invasive plant control practices.     

Effects of Stock Use and Backpackers on Water Quality in Wilderness in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks, USA

During 2010–2011, a study was conducted in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) to evaluate the influence of pack animals (stock) and backpackers on water quality in wilderness lakes and streams. The study had three main components: (1) a synoptic survey of water quality in wilderness areas of the parks, (2) paired water quality sampling above and below several areas with differing types and amounts of visitor use, and (3) intensive monitoring at six sites to document temporal variations in water quality. Data from the synoptic water quality survey indicated that wilderness lakes and streams are dilute and have low nutrient and Escherichia coli concentrations. The synoptic survey sites were categorized as minimal use, backpacker-use, or mixed use (stock and backpackers), depending on the most prevalent type of use upstream from the sampling locations. Sites with mixed use tended to have higher concentrations of most constituents (including E. coli) than those categorized as minimal-use (P ≤ 0.05); concentrations at backpacker-use sites were intermediate. Data from paired-site sampling indicated that E. coli, total coliform, and particulate phosphorus concentrations were greater in streams downstream from mixed-use areas than upstream from those areas (P ≤ 0.05). Paired-site data also indicated few statistically significant differences in nutrient, E. coli, or total coliform concentrations in streams upstream and downstream from backpacker-use areas. The intensive-monitoring data indicated that nutrient and E. coli concentrations normally were low, except during storms, when notable increases in concentrations of E. coli, nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, and turbidity occurred. In summary, results from this study indicate that water quality in SEKI wilderness generally is good, except during storms; and visitor use appears to have a small, but statistically significant influence on stream water quality.     

The challenge of integrating non-continuous processes – milk powder plant case study

The integration of non-continuous processes such as a milk powder plant presents a challenge for existing process integration techniques. Current techniques are generally based on steady and continuous operation which for some industries is not the case. Milk production varies considerably during the year as dairy cows in New Zealand are grazed on pasture. In this paper the potential for indirect heat transfer between the several plants using a heat recovery loop and stratified tank at a typical New Zealand dairy factory is investigated. The maximum amount of heat recovery is calculated for a range of recirculation loop temperatures. The maximum amount of heat recovery can be increased considerably if the temperature of the hot fluid in the recirculation loop is varied depending on which condition the site is operating under.