Spectral analysis of forest model time series

The use of spectral analysis to elucidate the cyclic behavior in time series generated by a forest stand growth simulation model is discussed. A stand-level simulator, FORET, for an Appalachian deciduous forest is described. An estimate of the power spectral density of the total biomass time series is calculated. The power spectral density estimate indicates a dominant cyclic behavior with a period of about 200 years. In addition the spectral density is approximately bandlimited. This characteristic makes possible the application of the sampling theorem for analysis of sampling rates.     

ENHANCING EVACUATION WARNING COMPLIANCE: SUGGESTIONS FOREMERGENCY PLANNING*

This review of incentives to evacuate is meaningful largely in the context of planning for and managing the consequences of the impact of riverine floods. Of course, incentives do not constitute an emergency plan. At best, they should be seen as suggestions for structuring some elements of a plan. Furthermore, the enumeration of incentives presented here is meant to be suggestive rather than exhaustive. A primary objective of this paper has been to underscore the importance of advance planning in coping with hazards and to argue that, even though limited, existing research can be productively used in the planning process. The incentives described here are based upon or drawn from empirical research on people's performance under flood disaster conditions. This reflects the view that it is important to build emergency planning around people's known reaction patterns. Too often emergency plans which are administratively devised turn out to be based upon misconceptions of how people react (cf. Drabek and Stephenson, 1971, p. 202; Dynes et al., 1972, p. 31) and, therefore, potentially create more difficulties than they solve. One must be cautioned, however, that although our data indicate that people say they would support the idea of various evacuation incentives examined here, these are attitudinal data and not performance data. Thus, the real test of evacuation incentives lies in their implementation and in evaluation data on pilot programs which, unfortunately, do not presently exist. The outlook for the feasibility of developing and utilizing evacuation incentives appears to be positive, though, judging from responses to our interviews. In the final analysis, it would appear to be wise to develop emergency plans which guide and channel citizen actions into complementary and productive protection behavior patterns. The present discussion of incentives to evacuate is intended to encourage data-based emergency planning.     

Prediction of cervical spine injury risk for the 6-year-old child in frontal crashes

This article presents a series of 49 km/h sled tests using the Hybrid III 6-year-old dummy in a high-back booster, a low-back booster, and a three-point belt. Although a 10-year review at a level I trauma center showed that noncontact cervical spine injuries are rare in correctly restrained booster-age children, dummy neck loads exceeded published injury thresholds in all tests. The dummy underwent extreme neck flexion during the test, causing full-face contact with the dummy's chest. These dummy kinematics were compared to the kinematics of a 12-year-old cadaver tested in a similar impact environment. The cadaver test showed neck flexion, but also significant thoracic spinal flexion which was nonexistent in the dummy. This comparison was expanded using MADYMO simulations in which the thoracic spinal stiffness of the dummy model was decreased to give a more biofidelic kinematic response. We conclude that the stiff thoracic spine of the dummy results in high neck forces and moments that are not representative of the true injury potential.     

Improving older driver knowledge and self-awareness through self-assessment: the driving decisions workbook

PURPOSE: This study aims to assess whether the Driving Decisions Workbook, a self-assessment instrument for older drivers, increased self-awareness and general knowledge. This study also assessed perceptions regarding its usefulness, particularly as a tool for facilitating discussions within families of older drivers. A secondary purpose of the study was to determine if problems identified by drivers in the workbook related to problems they had with actual driving. DESIGN AND METHODS: The Driving Decisions Workbook was administered along with a questionnaire and a road test. A convenience sample of 99 licensed drivers aged 65 and above was used. RESULTS: After completing the workbook, about three fourths of the participants reported being more aware of changes that could affect driving. Fourteen percent reported that they had discovered a change in themselves of which they had not been previously aware. All respondents found the workbook to be at least a little useful and thought the workbook could help facilitate family discussions. Workbook responses were positively correlated with overall road test scores. Significant correlations were also noted between the road test and a majority of workbook subsection responses. IMPLICATIONS: This study indicates that the workbook may be a useful first-tier assessment instrument and educational tool for the older driver. It may encourage an older driver to drive more safely and/or to seek clinical assessment, and help in facilitating discussions about driving within their families.     

Hydrological performance of MSW incineration residues and MSW co-disposed with sludge in full-scale cells

Water flows were analysed for the filling phase and the first 4 years after closure of two types of full-scale landfill cells: 'special cells' containing mostly fly ash from municipal solid waste (MSW) incineration disposed with other special/hazardous waste, and 'biocells' (biological cells) containing co-disposed MSW and food industry sludge. The landfill cells were constructed about -1.5 m above sea level (masl) at Lomma Bay, southern Sweden. The hydrological effects of water intrusion into the special cells from surroundings and sludge moisture within the biocells were studied. HELP modelling of hydrological processes predicted delay in peaks of leachate generation from uncovered special cells following rain, which was not confirmed. Faster leachate production as a response to rainfall from special cells than from biocells was observed. It was inferred that special waste has more intensive channelling, lower water absorption and higher hydraulic conductivity than mixtures of sludge/MSW. To avoid convergence problems in modelling uncovered special cells, the use of a 5 cm deep top layer with saturated hydraulic conductivity 1.7 x 10(-3) cm s(-1), porosity 0.437, and field capacity 0.105, is suggested.