核化危害源项反演技术现状及研究展望

源项反演对缓解和遏制核化危害源、精准预测核化危害时空传输和扩散情况、辅助作战行动和保障决策等具有十分重要的意义.本文从源项反演应用平台和源项反演关键算法(包括欧拉方法、拉格朗日方法、深度学习等)两个方面,对国内外核化危害源项反演技术的现状和二者间的差距进行了总结与分析.研究指出,利用深度学习提高反演精度和速率、从单污染...     

间歇-阶段性酸雨入侵对填埋稳定化飞灰中重金属浸出行为影响

以间歇-分阶段进水方式进行了模拟酸雨柱式动态淋溶实验.结果表明,间歇-阶段性酸雨入侵会影响填埋飞灰中Pb、Zn、Cu、Cr和Ni的浸出行为;尤其间歇停滞期后的初期酸雨入侵会增加多数重金属的再浸出水平,且该部分重金属的释放主要源于前阶段酸雨侵蚀过程中所形成的非稳定性(弱酸态)重金属.各酸雨侵蚀阶段,部分重金属(如Pb-Zn)的浸出行为具有相关性,这与各重金属在飞灰基质内的赋存形态、矿物相稳定性及酸性侵蚀程度等有关.各阶段酸雨入侵会相继溶出飞灰中的可溶性(NaCl、KCl等)、难溶性氯盐(CaClOH)以及微溶性钙盐(CaSO₄),并增加CaCO₃和Ca-Al-Si-O等矿物的峰强.各阶段酸雨入侵会使初始飞灰表面的团簇状结构逐渐被酸性(H⁺)侵蚀作用破坏,并暴露出大量棒状或条形状CaCO₃晶体,且随着酸雨入侵次数的增加,CaCO₃也将逐渐被侵蚀破坏.本研究为非连续酸性降雨条件下填埋稳定化飞灰的重金属浸出行为评价及风险管控提供了科学依据.     

碳中和目标下中国省域碳平衡能力与城镇化的关系

厘清碳平衡能力与城镇化的关系对实现碳中和目标和推动新型城镇化发展具有重要的理论价值及实践意义。采用温室气体清单法、碳吸收清查法、碳平衡指标法和多元城镇化测量法分别测算1999—2018年中国省域碳平衡能力与各类城镇化指标,利用空间自然断点分级法和Granger因果检验法分别分析中国省域碳平衡能力与城镇化的时空演变特征及互动关系。主要结论如下：（1）中国碳排放不断增多,碳吸收不断减少,碳平衡能力呈上升、下降、先减后增和先增后减四种趋势,碳排放呈“东多西少”分布,碳吸收与碳平衡能力分别呈“西多东少”和“西强东弱”分布。（2）中国人口、经济、空间、生态城镇化和城镇化综合指标不断提升,其中空间城镇化大致呈“西高东低”分布,其余则呈“东高西低”分布。（3）除空间城镇化外,中国整体碳平衡能力与各类城镇化的关系均为反馈型,而各省域增长保护型数量最多,中立型数量最少。     

基于多态模糊BN的石化动设备故障概率定量风险评估

石化行业的压缩机、泵等动设备故障模式多样,故障概率的不确定性较大,常用的风险评估方法无法实现对石化行业动设备失效概率的定量评估,限制了设备安全管理的准确性和有效性.基于贝叶斯网络(BN)可定量计算复杂系统失效概率的特点,利用故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)方法获取动设备风险事件的因果关系,将其映射为BN,并利用BN中节点...     

风能资源开发利用的社会需要和发展前景

开发风能资源、利能风力发电在我国虽然只有数十年，但发展却很快。作为可再生的清洁能源越来越受到重视。不仅有巨大的环保意义，也有突出的经济效益。本文从风能利用的意义和社会需要展开论证，结合我国风能资源利用的概况，特别是结合风电装机最多的新疆的实际情况进行估算，从多侧面论述了风能资源的开发利用问题。     

贫困地区非物质文化遗产产业化博弈分析

非物质文化遗产是贫困地区重要的文化资源,将文化资源转化为文化生产力,实现文化扶贫是贫困地区在现代社会背景下的重要抉择.作为参与非物质文化遗产产业化的三个主要利益相关者(当地政府、企业和非物质文化遗产保有者),他们之间的利益博弈结果表明,非物质文化遗产产业化对三个参与方都是有利的战略选择.只有合理分配三者的角色,贫困地区非物质文化遗产的产业化才能促进当地经济发展的需要,实现文化脱贫,而且还有利于非物质文化遗产的保护与传承.     

迫龙沟特大桥主梁牵索挂篮安全性验算与分析

通过对迫龙沟大桥主梁牵索挂篮进行仿真建模,对结构各阶段进行了应力和整体位移分析,保证了结构整体安全性。针对目前对弧形首、C型梁等局部重要部位研究较少的情况,采用Midas FEA软件对其进行了更为精确的非线性分析计算,结果表明,这些部位满足受力和变形要求,为工程安全作出了保证。     

Model simulations of dissolved oxygen characteristics of Minnesota lakes: Past and future

A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area (A _s), maximum depth (H _max), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth (Z _s). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms of a stratification parameterA _s/H _max ^0.25 and Secchi depthZ _s. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted (monthly) by the 2 × CO₂ GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO₂. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above 7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2–8 mg/liter. Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management options.     

AN INTEGRATED ONE‐DIMENSIONAL AND TWO‐DIMENSIONAL URBAN STORMWATER FLOOD SIMULATION MODEL1

ABSTRACT: Flash flooding is the rapid flooding of low lying areas caused by the stormwater of intense rainfall associated with thunderstorms. Flash flooding occurs in many urban areas with relatively flat terrain and can result in severe property damage as well as the loss of lives. In this paper, an integrated one‐dimensional (1‐D) and two‐dimensional (2‐D) hydraulic simulation model has been established to simulate stormwater flooding processes in urban areas. With rainfall input, the model simulates 2‐D overland flow and 1‐D flow in underground stormwater pipes and drainage channels. Drainage channels are treated as special flow paths and arranged along one or more sides of a 2‐D computational grid. By using irregular computation grids, the model simulates unsteady flooding and drying processes over urban areas with complex drainage systems. The model results can provide spatial flood risk information (e.g., water depth, inundation time and flow velocity during flooding). The model was applied to the City of Beaumont, Texas, and validated with the recorded rainfall and runoff data from Tropical Storm Allison with good agreement.     

“一一·二四”海难渤海风场的数值模拟

用中尺度数值模式 ＭＭ５对 １９９９年 １１月 ２４日烟台附近发生重大海难事故的渤海风场进行了数值模 拟，探讨了该次冷锋大风的风场特征和影响机制．结果表明：用９０ｋｍ的粗网格可以成功地模拟地面冷高压 与锋面的发展和移动，以及高空环流形势的演变．而通过３０ｋｍ细网格的模拟发现，在冷锋后的行星边界层 中．存在着一条宽度为 ２００ ｋｉｎ的中尺度强风带，最大风速位于 ９２５ｈＰａ，它与高空的极锋急流并不相连；细 网格还模拟出了渤海中尺度低压的发展过程，它使近地面层大风的强度显著加强．模拟还表明，海陆差异对 近地面的风场分布有重要的影响，强风带移入渤海后，在渤海海域形成一个 ２００—３００ ｋｍ的中尺度强风 区．因此，采用具有较高分辨率的中尺度数值模式，对提高渤海大风的预报水平，避兔海难事故的发生更具 有重要意义．