The effect of nitrogen enrichment on the carbon sink in coniferous forests: Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of three ecosystem models

Estimates of the global carbon sink induced by nitrogen enrichment range vary widely, from nearly zero to 2.3 Gt C year^?1. It is necessary to reduce this uncertainty if we are to make accurate predictions of the future magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Here, we present a Monte Carlo approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of three ecosystem models, Century, BGC and Hybrid. These models were applied to a coniferous forest ecosystem in Sweden. The best estimate of the change in total carbon content of the ecosystem with the cumulative change in nitrogen deposition over 100 years, ΔC_total/ΔN_deposition was 20.1 kg C (kg N)^?1 using the pooled mean, with a pooled standard deviation of 13.8 kg C (kg N)^?1. Variability in parameters accounted for 92% of the total uncertainty in ΔC_total/ΔN_deposition, and only 8% was attributable to differences between models. The most sensitive parameters were those which controlled the allocation of assimilate between leaves, roots and stem. In particular, an increase in allocation to fine roots led to a large reduction in ΔC_total/ΔN_deposition in all models, because the fine roots have a very high turnover rate, and extra carbon allocated there is soon lost through mortality and decomposition.     

Transport of Escherichia coli bacteria through laboratory columns of glacial-outwash sediments: estimating model parameter values based on sediment characteristics

Bacterial transport through cores of intact, glacial-outwash aquifer sediment was investigated with the overall goal of better understanding bacterial transport and developing a predictive capability based on the sediment characteristics. Variability was great among the cores. Normalized maximum bacterial-effluent concentrations ranged from 5.4x10(-7) to 0.36 and effluent recovery ranged from 2.9x10(-4) to 59%. Bacterial breakthrough was generally rapid with a sharp peak occurring nearly twice as early as the bromide peak. Bacterial breakthrough exhibited a long tail of relatively constant concentration averaging three orders of magnitude less than the peak concentration for up to 32 pore volumes. The tails were consistent with non-equilibrium detachment, corroborated by the results of flow interruption experiments. Bacterial breakthrough was accurately simulated with a transport model incorporating advection, dispersion and first-order non-equilibrium attachment/detachment. Relationships among bacterial transport and sediment characteristics were explored with multiple regression analyses. These analyses indicated that for these cores and experimental conditions, easily-measurable sediment characteristics--median grain size, degree of sorting, organic-matter content and hydraulic conductivity--accounted for 66%, 61% and 89% of the core-to-core variability in the bacterial effective porosity, dispersivity and attachment-rate coefficient, respectively. In addition, the bacterial effective porosity, median grain size and organic-matter content accounted for 76% of the inter-core variability in the detachment-rate coefficient. The resulting regression equations allow prediction of bacterial transport based on sediment characteristics and are a possible alternative to using colloid-filtration theory. Colloid-filtration theory, used without the benefit of running bacterial transport experiments, did not as accurately replicate the observed variability in the attachment-rate coefficient.     

Scientific understanding of stakeholders’ behavior in mining community

We attempt to understand, scientifically, how different members of the mining concession, impacted communities, and government authorities behave when a conflicting situation arises. The main purpose of our effort is to start developing a framework for the scientific modeling of stakeholders’ behavior, and we create a reality-driven generic scenario of conflict. We assume that the managers and superintendants of a mining operation currently envision a problem; one that tests the limits of the commitment of the company’s mission statement, and of the spectrum of actions taken which are embedded in the “culture” of the company’s corporate social responsibility. It is an “event” that highlights the nature of an overall problem that the company would like to predict and act proactively: the integration of scientific tools, sustainability, and cultural realities within a mining framework. We adapt an agent-based modeling approach and start with a theoretical understanding of certain social behavior, build a model, and simulate “what if” scenarios to understand its dynamics to gain a better insight of the complexity of a seemingly simple social system of interest.     

Status report on standard-setting work in the area of environmental radioactivity measurement

Environmental assessment studies are regularly commissioned to study the impact of radioactive substances on the environment and the public, in response to concern about the presence of such substances. The credibility of such studies relies on the quality and reliability of radionuclide analysis as well as the sample representativity of the radiological situation. The recent expansion from national stakeholders to those involving other states requires that activity measured in effluents or environmental samples in a country are reliable and reproducible so as to be accepted by all states potentially concerned by regional contamination. The standard-setting approach, based on consensus, seemed to lend itself to a settlement of technical aspects of potential dispute. This document describes standardization organizations, French and international, the standards published, as well as standardization work under way on the measurement of radionuclides found in environmental matrices.     

Radon risk assessment: The effect of voluntary sampling distributions and bias

This paper examines the problem of estimating indoor radon concentrations for radon-induced lung cancer risk assessment. Previous authors have identified various problems and possible corrections for the use of generally available radon screening measurements. Bias evident in data collected from volunteers is described; regional databases developed from voluntary data generally exhibit higher mean values than those obtained from random samples. Tools are developed to better characterize the differences in voluntary and random concentration distributions. Application is demonstrated using voluntary and random radon survey data for the state of North Dakota.     

An analysis of continuous black carbon concentrations in proximity to an airport and major roadways

Black carbon (BC), a constituent of particulate matter, is emitted from multiple combustion sources, complicating determination of contributions from individual sources or source categories from monitoring data. In close proximity to an airport, this may include aircraft emissions, other emissions on the airport grounds, and nearby major roadways, and it would be valuable to determine the factors most strongly related to measured BC concentrations. In this study, continuous BC concentrations were measured at five monitoring sites in proximity to a small regional airport in Warwick, Rhode Island from July 2005 to August 2006. Regression was used to model the relative contributions of aircraft and related sources, using real-time flight activity (departures and arrivals) and meteorological data, including mixing height, wind speed and direction. The latter two were included as a nonparametric smooth spatial term using thin-plate splines applied to wind velocity vectors and fit in a linear mixed model framework. Standard errors were computed using a moving-block bootstrap to account for temporal autocorrelation. Results suggest significant positive associations between hourly departures and arrivals at the airport and BC concentrations within the community, with departures having a more substantial impact. Generalized Additive Models for wind speed and direction were consistent with significant contributions from the airport, major highway, and multiple local roads. Additionally, inverse mixing height, temperature, precipitation, and at one location relative humidity, were associated with BC concentrations. Median contribution estimates indicate that aircraft departures and arrivals (and other sources coincident in space and time) contribute to approximately 24–28% of the BC concentrations at the monitoring sites in the community. Our analysis demonstrated that a regression-based approach with detailed meteorological and source characterization can provide insights about source contributions, which could be used to devise control strategies or to provide monitor-based comparisons with source-specific atmospheric dispersion models.     

Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems for Flood Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Response in Urban Watersheds1

Abstract: Flood management problems are inherently complex, time‐bound and multi‐faceted, involving many decision makers (with conflicting priorities and dynamic preferences), high decision stakes, limited technical information (both in terms of quality and quantity), and difficult tradeoffs. Multi‐Criteria Decision Support Systems (MCDSS) can help to manage this complexity and decision load by combining value judgments and technical information in a structured decision framework. A brief overview of MCDSS is presented, an original MCDSS architecture is put forth, and future research directions are discussed, including extensions to Multi‐Criteria Spatial Decision Support Systems and group MCDSS (as flood management involves shared resources and broad constituencies). With application to the September 11‐12, 2000 Tokai floods in Japan, the proposed multi‐criteria decision support instruments enhance communication among stakeholders and improve emergency management resource allocation. In summary, by making the links among flood knowledge, assumptions and choices more explicit, MCDSS increases stakeholder satisfaction, saves lives, and reduces flood management costs, thereby increasing decision‐making effectiveness, efficiency and transparency.