复杂系统安全事故致因分析的“认知-约束”模型

随着系统复杂程度的提高,传统的针对机械系统或者机电系统事故致因的“因果事故链”模型对于复杂系统的事故分析显得难以胜任.在对现有事故致因理论及模型进行概述分析的基础上,提出了适用于复杂系统事故分析的“认知-约束”模型,通过分析文献中的事故连锁模型和博帕尔泄露事件,验证了“认知-约束”模型的实用性.最后提出基于机器学习方法和重要节点牵连控制方法的复杂系统崩溃控制策略.研究结果表明预防复杂系统安全事故需要强化安全认知能力,并发展有效的安全控制策略.     

Generation and distribution of PAHs in the process of medical waste incineration

After the deadly earthquake on May 12, 2008 in Wenchuan county of China, several different incineration approaches were used for medical waste disposal. This paper investigates the generation properties of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) during the incineration. Samples were collected from the bottom ash in an open burning slash site, surface soil at the open burning site, bottom ash from a simple incinerator, bottom ash generated from the municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerator used for medical waste disposal, and bottom ash and fly ash from an incinerator exclusively used for medical waste. The species of PAHs were analyzed, and the toxicity equivalency quantities (TEQs) of samples calculated. Analysis results indicate that the content of total PAHs in fly ash was 1.8 × 10³ times higher than that in bottom ash, and that the strongly carcinogenic PAHs with four or more rings accumulated sensitively in fly ash. The test results of samples gathered from open burning site demonstrate that Acenaphthylene (ACY), Acenaphthene (ACE), Fluorene (FLU), Phenanthrene (PHE), Anthracene (ANT) and other PAHs were inclined to migrate into surrounding environment along air and surface watershed corridors, while 4- to 6-ring PAHs accumulated more likely in soil. Being consistent with other studies, it has also been confirmed that increases in both free oxygen molecules and combustion temperatures could promote the decomposition of polycyclic PAHs. In addition, without the influence of combustion conditions, there is a positive correlation between total PCDD/Fs and total PAHs, although no such relationship has been found for TEQ.     

乌鲁木齐市水泥行业污染现状分析

根据乌鲁木齐市水泥行业的验收监测结果，对其污染现状进行了分析。     

多维旋度大循环经济圈发展模式研究——产业集群视角下以黑龙江省为例

为了定量分析省域空间特征区域间的经济增长关系,通过引入场论理论框架,结合集聚经济学和传统空间区域划分理论观点,提出多维旋度大循环经济圈发展模型。定义资金通量经济场,以资金通量流速和资金通量密度为主要测度指标来衡量特征区域的经济学指标。以黑龙江省大循环经济圈发展模式的建设构思检验模型的合理性,并由此得出黑龙江省实现经济再增长的关键问题是要处理好农林产业、能源产业、其他新兴服务产业同外贸产业之间相互触发、互为依存的激励关系。     

航空装备研制风险的综合赋权-双基点法评估

为实现对航空预研项目技术风险的定量评估,建立技术风险评价指标体系,建立基于综合赋权和双基点方法的综合评估模型,采用层次分析法(AHP)求得主观权重,熵值赋权法求得客观权重,运用线性规划方法求得对2类权重加权的权值,构造综合权重;使用正负理想点间的投影距离代替传统的相对欧式距离对TOPSIS方法进行改进;实例分析中,通过对某航空预研项目5种不同的方案进行风险评估,得出各方案的优劣度,选出了较为优化的技术方案,该方法可用于指导其他装备研制风险的评估。     

Simulating PM concentration during a winter episode in a subtropical valley: Sensitivity simulations and evaluation methods

We investigated a two-week episode with high PM concentrations in California Central Valley during the Christmas–New Year of 2000–2001 using a modeling system that consists of a computationally efficient, 3-D photochemical–microphysical transport model, a mesoscale meteorological model, emission models, and an evaluation package. One hundred simulations were conducted with fine resolutions and observational constraints, to reproduce spatial and temporal features of observed PM concentrations and to understand the formation mechanism of the episode. Simulated PM concentrations consist of secondary inorganic components, mainly ammonium nitrate, and total carbon in areas with elevated concentrations in the accumulation mode, and consist of mainly dust and sea salt in the coarse mode. Simulated oxidants and nitrate were significantly elevated over the valley, and the latter showed much less amplitude than the former. Simulated PM concentrations were evaluated with observations systematically with spatially and temporally paired method, a more restrictive multivariate method (NMFROC), and a more flexible “gradient evaluation” method. The paired evaluation shows that high correlation coefficient (R = ～0.8) and low fractional error (FE = ～0.1) could be achieved at stations with elevated 24-h concentration of PM in the accumulation mode in some simulations. The NMFROC method was used to extract useful information from seemingly failed simulations. A “gradient evaluation” method is introduced here to extract additional information from simulations. We found that emission reductions of NO_x and AVOC showed similar effects on percentage basis in different areas, and both are more effective than reducing NH₃ for abating elevated concentrations of accumulation mode PM in California Central Valley during the winter episode.     

喷水灭火过程中足尺钢框架房屋温度场试验研究∗

喷水灭火行为引起的火场局部温度骤降,有可能引起房屋结构破坏。为研究火灾及消防过程中温度场的分布和变化情况,设计建造了足尺钢框架房屋,根据实际火灾及消防场景设计火灾荷载和消防系统,模拟了真实火灾下窗户玻璃破碎和喷水灭火对火灾温度场的影响。试验过程中利用热电偶测量火灾及消防全过程的火场温度,得到了火场中不同位置的温度变化曲线。根据试验结果,并结合火灾动力学分析了火场温度的空间分布和变化规律。研究表明:火灾过程中,火场在垂直方向上存在明显的温度梯度,空气温度随高度增加而升高;框架平面沿水平方向越靠近起火点,升温速率越快,能达到的最高温度越高,垂直方向温度梯度越大;玻璃破碎增大了通风口面积,对通风控制型火灾的温度场有显著影响,靠近通风口处温度略有降低,而远离通风口的火场纵深处温度大幅上升;消防喷水能迅速抑制火场燃烧,降低火场温度,降温速率随喷水灭火时间增长而减小;开始灭火的短时间内,火源附近温度骤降,降温速率最高达到391℃/min。     

基于高光谱遥感的沿海河口无机氮浓度空间分布特征解译

利用39组样本的野外实测光谱结合Hyperion影像资料,建立了高悬沙含量沿海河口可溶性无机氮(dissolved inorganic nitrogen,DIN)的高光谱定量遥感解译模型,实现DIN浓度空间分布规律的遥感反演及动态监测.研究发现,当悬沙浓度0.1kg/m3时,DIN浓度与悬沙含量之间呈显著的倒数相关关系,相关系数R2为0.617.据此首先将重采样处理后的野外实测光谱与同步DIN浓度数据进行统计相关分析,筛选出2个对DIN浓度变化敏感的波段,中心波长分别为630nm和804nm;然后利用波段反射率R804和R630计算出仿泥沙遥感参数因子R804×R630/(R804-R630),建立其与实测DIN浓度的非线性遥感模型,29组建模样本和10组检验样本的相关系数R2分别为0.746和0.67,DIN浓度平均绝对误差分别为109.07μg/L和147.58μg/L.将该非线性遥感模型应用于Hyperion影像,获得了射阳河口DIN浓度的空间分布特征,DIN浓度的变化范围为52～513μg/L.可以看出,在以悬沙为主要悬浮物的沿海河口,遥感解译得到的DIN浓度扩散趋势与潮流的运动以及悬沙的运移规律密切相关.因此,在无需了解水动力状况的条件下,高光谱遥感是对DIN浓度进行动态监测的有效手段.     

南京8个湖泊超微真核浮游生物遗传多样性的研究

用末端限制性片段长度多态性(terminal restriction fragment length poly morphism,T-RFLP)方法对南京市区8个不同营养水平湖泊的沿岸带和敞水带超微真核浮游生物(0.2～5.0μm)遗传多样性进行了研究,目的是了解不同营养水平湖泊超微真核浮游生物遗传多样性的差异以及影响这种差异的主要因子.T-RFLP结果表明,不同湖泊超微真核浮游生物的T-RFLP指纹图谱存在明显差异,沿岸带和敞水带末端限制性片段T-RFs平均值分别为16.4和15.9,其中营养水平中等的南湖沿岸带T-RFs最多(30个),营养水平较低的百家湖敞水带T-RFs最少(10个),除琵琶湖和莫愁湖外,沿岸带的超微真核浮游生物遗传多样性均比敞水带高.聚类分析表明,除百家湖、前湖、南湖外,其他湖泊沿岸带和敞水带的相似度都比较高.超微真核浮游生物遗传多样性与环境因子的典型对应分析(canonical correspondence analysis,CCA)表明,叶绿素a浓度与超微真核浮游生物群落结构和多样性显著相关(p=0.004).本研究表明,超微真核浮游生物遗传多样性受湖泊营养水平的影响,而且在敞水带和沿岸带存在差异.     

不同磷肥对水稻铅积累的影响及其机理

采用盆栽实验,研究外源添加过磷酸钙(SSP)、磷酸二铵(DAP)对于铅胁迫下水稻的生长、铅吸收和铅分布的影响.结果表明:在铅胁迫下,水稻根、茎叶、籽粒的生物量随着两种磷肥浓度的增大而增大,以施加DAP的水稻茎和叶生物量增幅最大,分别增加13.77%和44.17%.水稻体内铅大部分分布在细胞壁中,并随铅浓度的增加,两种磷肥提高了细胞壁对铅的固定能力,有效抑制了水稻对Pb的吸收,Pb在水稻体内的分布表现为根茎叶籽粒,其中SSP的效果大于DAP,施加SSP有效地降低了水稻籽粒Pb的含量.