Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Heavy metal concentration in fish tissues inhabiting waters of “Buško Blato” reservoar (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Heavy metals concentration (mercury, lead, cadmium, arsenic, copper, zinc and chromium) in tissues (muscles, liver, kidney and gonads) of Dalmatian barbelgudgeon, the nase, the souffie and brown trout, inhabiting waters of Busko Blato reservoir in Bosnia and Herzegovina, has been determined by atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The meat of the tested fish sorts does not contain elevated concentration of most analyzed heavy metals with exception of lead (higher than MAC in Italy, Germany and Denmark) and mercury (in muscles of brown trout higher than MAC in most countries). The lowest level of all heavy metals is always detected in gonads, with higher values in fry compared to milt for copper, zinc, chromium and arsenic. The highest copper concentration is observed in the liver from the souffie which is suggested as a suitable biomonitor for copper intoxication. In muscles of all fish sorts, lead was always present in much higher concentration than cadmium, while in kidneys of most fish sorts, lead and cadmium concentrations were similar. We showed that bioaccumulation of some heavy metals in the fish sorts analyzed is tissue and sex dependent. Also, we concluded that the small water exchange in reversible shallow reservoir does not induce elevated concentration of heavy metals in fish tissues inhabiting Busko Blato.     

Water quality evaluation of two interconnected dam lakes with field-captured and laboratory-acclimated fish, <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Cyprinus carpio</Emphasis>

Karakaya and Sultansuyu Dam Lakes, located in the eastern part of Turkey, are important water sources, both for irrigation and fishery. The main goal of the study was to investigate water qualities of dam lakes using a set of biomarkers in the fish Cyprinus carpio. For this aim, field sample and laboratory-acclimated fish were compared to identify changes in selected biomarkers. The activities of ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase, glutathione S-transferase, glutathione reductase, and carboxylesterase were determined in liver samples. Also, plasma and liver lactate dehydrogenase, aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase activities were assayed. Brain acetylcholinesterase and carboxylesterase activities were also determined. The hepatosomatic index and condition factors were calculated. Plasma vitellogenin assays were evaluated for the presence of xenoestrogen. Physicochemical values of water samples showed the existence of eutrophication risk, and also, some chemicals in both lakes were determined to be over tolerable limits. The comparisons of samples from both dam lake and laboratory-acclimated fish showed that the lakes may be at risk of pollution by some xenobiotics, namely xenoestrogens and acetylcholinesterase-inhibiting agents.     

Exposure assessment and associated lung deposition calculations for vehicular exhaust in four metropolitan cities of Pakistan

Ambient aerosol concentrations along the roadside of metropolitan cities of Pakistan were measured using a Grimm 1.109 dust monitor. Considering the high ambient aerosol concentrations, regional lung deposition of aerosol particles in the human respiratory tract was calculated to assess extent of exposure. Lung deposition was computed in terms of mass concentration and the associated surface area for 12 male traffic wardens using the latest version of the stochastic lung deposition code Inhalation, Deposition, and Exhalation of Aerosols in the Lung. The results have revealed 4 to 10 times higher concentrations than recommended by WHO guidelines. The deposition results derived from the model disclose that extrathoracic deposition is in the range of 22 to 28 % with total lung deposition ranging from 40 to 44 % for the scanned particle window of 0.25–10 μm. Considering an average 8-h shift per day and an average breathing rate of 1.3 m³?h^?1, it is approximated that in a worker, up to 1.6 mg of inhalable particle mass can deposit per day.     

Changes in water quality in agricultural catchments after deployment of wastewater treatment plant

Insufficient wastewater remediation in small communities and nonpoint source pollution are the key factors in determining the water quality of small streams in an agricultural landscape. Despite the current extensive construction of municipal wastewater treatment facilities in small communities, the level of organic substances and nutrients in the recipient catchments has not decreased in many areas. This paper analyzes the changes in the water quality of the small streams after the deployment of wastewater treatment plants that were designed to address sources of pollution from small municipalities. The analysis is based on the results from a water quality monitoring network in the small watersheds in the Czech Republic. Five rural catchments with one dominant municipal pollution source, where a wastewater treatment plant was deployed during the monitoring period, were selected according to a predefined set of criteria, from a series of 317 profiles. Basic water quality indicators were selected for the assessment: O₂, BOD-5, COD, TOC, conductivity, NH₄-N, NO₂-N, NO₃-N, PT, and PO₄-P. Results of the analysis showed that the simple deployment of the water treatment facilities at these streams often did not lead to a reduction of contamination in the streams. The expected post-deployment changes, namely, a significant and permanent reduction of stream contamination, occurred only in one catchment, whereas in the remainder of the catchments, only marginal changes or even increased concentrations of the contaminants were detected. As the critical factors that determined the efficiency of wastewater treatment were studied, the need for the consideration of the local conditions during the design of the facility, particularly regarding the size of the catchments, initial level of contamination, proper system of operation, and process optimization of the treatment facility, emerged as the important factor.     

Contaminated area instability along Ångermanälven River,northern Sweden

Industrially utilized river basins are frequently exposed to contaminants originating from polluting activities. However, the physical instability and probability of mass movement mobilization of contaminated soil into rivers have only received little attention. In this study, we present a GIS-based method to produce a regional overview of where and how contaminated areas are potentially exposed to slope instability. A landslide susceptibility-index was used to study the degree and distribution of overlap between contaminated sites and unstable ground. A contaminated area instability hazard classification was produced integrating slope instability and contamination risk classification. Our results indicate that mass movement can be tied mainly to a slope gradient ≥16°, a proximity to the river that is <500 m, a distance of <500 m from roads, concave surface curvature, and sand- and silt soils. Forty-six (22%) of all considered contaminated sites are located within areas with a non-negligible slope instability, of which a majority, 30 sites (14%) are situated on ground with a low or moderate instability. Three sites with a class 2 contamination risk (the 2nd highest class) are located on ground with a very high slope instability.     

Simplified determination of lipophilic metabolites of nonylphenol ethoxylates: method development and application in aqueous samples from Buenos Aires, Argentina

In the present work we have developed an analytical methodology for the determination of nonylphenol (NP) and nonylphenol mono- and di-ethoxylates (NP1EO and NP2EO) in water samples. The applicability of this methodology was proved by means of the analysis of environmentally relevant aqueous samples from Buenos Aires. This constitutes a starting point for a rigorous assessment of the incidence of NPnEO surfactants in Argentina, as only very few, qualitative or semi-quantitative data on the occurrence of these compounds in local systems were available up to this time. Enrichment of the analytes was carried out by solid-phase extraction on a C-18 sorbent, followed by elution with ethyl acetate. Normal-phase high performance liquid chromatography on an amino-silica column and fluorescence detection at excitation-emission wavelengths of 230-300 nm were employed for separation and quantification of the analytes. Confirmation of peak assignment in selected real samples was performed by off-line coupling HPLC with GC-MS analysis. A non-polar GC capillary column was used, and a characteristic peak pattern was obtained for the alkyl chain isomers of each ethoxylated homologue and NP. GC-MS analyses yielded in all cases purity levels higher than 80% for the HPLC collected fractions. The elevated concentrations found for the estrogenic metabolites of NPnEO are in accordance with an unrestricted use of this class of non-ionic surfactants in the country.     

The comparison of heavy metal accumulation ratios of some fish species in Enne Dame Lake (Kütahya/Turkey)

The metal accumulation levels for muscle, skin, gill, liver and intestine tissues of some Cyprinidae species (Carassius carassius, Condrostoma nasus, Leuciscus cephalus and Alburnus alburnus) in Enne Dame Lake (Kütahya/Turkey), which is mostly fed by hot spring waters, were investigated. Analyses were performed for copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), magnesium (Mg), nickel (Ni), chrome (Cr) and boron (B) using inductively coupled plasma-optic emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES), and cadmium (Cd) using atomic absorption spectrophotometer (AAS) utilizing microwave digestion techniques. The concentrations of the heavy metals found in the fish varied in the follow ing ranges: Cu: < DL-7.04, Zn: 6.96-357.25, Mn: < DL-20.70, Ni: < DL-6.21, Fe: 9.62-2500.33, Cr: < DL-1.74, Co: < DL-0.54, Cd: 0.01-0.27 and Mg: 197.44-904.90 mg/kg wet weight. While B had the second highest concentration in the water of the lake, it was not encountered in any tissue of the investigated species. In all tissues and the species, While the bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) of Mn, Zn, Fe and Cu were remarkably high, the BAFs of Mg, Cr, Co, and B were also fairly low or none. Although the heavy metal accumulation levels for the muscle were generally lower than other tissues, there were some exceptions. Cd level in the muscle of C. carassius was higher than the permissible limit stated by Turkish legislation, FAO and WHO. The mean metal amounts for all the investigated tissues and species are statistically compared and discussed in this study.     

Microbial contamination of dental unit waterlines and effect on quality of indoor air

The microbiological quality in dental unit waterlines (DUWLs) is considered to be important because patients and dental staff with suppressed immune systems are regularly exposed to water and aerosols generated from dental units (DUs). Opportunistic pathogens like Pseudomonas, Legionella, Candida, and Aspergillus can be present in DUWLs, while during consultations, bioaerosols can be dispersed in the air, thus resulting in effects on microbiological quality of indoor air. This present study represents microbiological air and water quality in dental offices (DOs) and also concerns the relationship between the quality of DO air and dental unit water. This study aimed to assess both the microbial quality of dental unit water and the indoor air in 20 DOs and to survey the effect on the quality of the indoor air with the existing microorganisms in dental unit water. Fourteen out of 20 (70 %) DUWLs were found to be contaminated with a high number of aerobic mesophilic heterotrophic bacteria. In terms of bacterial air contamination levels, in 90 % of DOs, a medium level (<500 colony-forming units (CFU)/m³) of contamination was determined, while in terms of microfungal air contamination, in all DOs, a low level (<100 CFU/m³) of contamination was determined. Potential infection or allergen agents, such as Pseudomonas, Micrococcus, Staphylococcus, Alternaria, Cladosporium, Penicillium, Aspergillus, and Paecilomyces were isolated from water and air samples. This study’s determination of contamination sources and evaluation of microbial load in DOs could contribute to the development of quality control methods in the future.     

Using process-based models to filter out natural variability in observed concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in river water

Advances in process-based modelling of loads of nitrogen and phosphorus carried by rivers have created new possibilities to interpret time series of water quality data. We examined how model runs with constant anthropogenic forcing can be used to estimate and filter out weather-driven variation in observational data and, thereby, draw attention to other features of such data. An assessment of measured and modelled nutrient concentrations at the outlets of 45 Swedish rivers provided promising results for total nitrogen. In particular, joint analyses of observational data and outputs from the catchment model S-HYPE strengthened the evidence that downward trends in nitrogen were due to mitigation measures in agriculture. Evaluation of modelled and observed total phosphorus concentrations revealed considerable bias in the collection or chemical analysis of water samples and also identified weaknesses in the model outputs. Together, our results highlight the need for more efficient two-way communication between environmental modelling and monitoring.