The first trimester ‘combined test’ for the detection of Down syndrome pregnancies in 4939 unselected pregnancies

The high detection rate (DR) for Down syndrome (DS) pregnancies which can be achieved by measuring fetal nuchal translucency (NT) early in pregnancy can be improved by combining it with placental hormones [pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) and free β-human chorionic gonadotrophin (fβ-hCG)] and maternal age (‘combined test’). In this study we wanted to assess the DR using the ‘combined test’ in an unselected population of self-referred pregnant women at a false-positive rate (FPR) of about 5%. NT, PAPP-A, fβ-hCG and maternal age were measured in all women with singleton pregnancies who booked for delivery in our hospital from 1 December 1997 to 31 April 2000 and who were between 10 and 13 completed weeks of gestation [crown–rump length (CRL) 35–70 mm]. The specific DS risk was calculated using the computer program Alpha Version 5aa (Logical Medical Systems, London, UK). A total of 4939 women were tested. Out of 14 DS pregnancies that occurred during this period of time, 12 were detected with the test. A total of 246 women had a false-positive test result in a non-DS pregnancy (FPR 5.0%). This makes the ‘combined test’ by far the best test for the detection of DS pregnancies in a low-risk population. The constant increase in maternal age at the time of delivery can also lead to an improved DR if a simple age-dependant protocol for DS detection is used, but only at the price of a much higher number of amniocenteses and subsequent abortions. The DR for DS can be increased much more markedly using the ‘combined test’ with a FPR that still remains at the level as it was in the early 1970s. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating species richness and accumulation by modeling species occurrence and detectability

A statistical model is developed for estimating species richness and accumulation by formulating these community-level attributes as functions of model-based estimators of species occurrence while accounting for imperfect detection of individual species. The model requires a sampling protocol wherein repeated observations are made at a collection of sample locations selected to be representative of the community. This temporal replication provides the data needed to resolve the ambiguity between species absence and nondetection when species are unobserved at sample locations. Estimates of species richness and accumulation are computed for two communities, an avian community and a butterfly community. Our model-based estimates suggest that detection failures in many bird species were attributed to low rates of occurrence, as opposed to simply low rates of detection. We estimate that the avian community contains a substantial number of uncommon species and that species richness greatly exceeds the number of species actually observed in the sample. In fact, predictions of species accumulation suggest that even doubling the number of sample locations would not have revealed all of the species in the community. In contrast, our analysis of the butterfly community suggests that many species are relatively common and that the estimated richness of species in the community is nearly equal to the number of species actually detected in the sample. Our predictions of species accumulation suggest that the number of sample locations actually used in the butterfly survey could have been cut in half and the asymptotic richness of species still would have been attained. Our approach of developing occurrence-based summaries of communities while allowing for imperfect detection of species is broadly applicable and should prove useful in the design and analysis of surveys of biodiversity.     

Snake fangs from the Lower Miocene of Germany: evolutionary stability of perfect weapons

There is a general consensus that most of today’s nonvenomous snakes are descendants of venomous snakes that lost their venomous capabilities secondarily. This implies that the evolutionary history of venomous snakes and their venom apparatus should be older than the current evidence from the fossil record. We compared some of the oldest-known fossil snake fangs from the Lower Miocene of Germany with those of modern viperids and elapids and found their morphology to be indistinguishable from the modern forms. The primary function of recent elapid and viperid snake fangs is to facilitate the extremely rapid, stab-like application of highly toxic venoms. Our findings therefore indicate that the other components of the venom-delivery system of Early Miocene vipers and elapids were also highly developed, and that these snakes used their venom in the same way as their modern relatives. Thus, the fossil record supports the view that snakes used their venoms to rapidly subdue prey long before the mid-Tertiary onset of the global environmental changes that seem to have supported the successful radiation of venomous snakes.     

Effects of climate change and UV radiation on fisheries for arctic freshwater and anadromous species

Fisheries for arctic freshwater and diadromous fish species contribute significantly to northern economies. Climate change, and to a lesser extent increased ultraviolet radiation, effects in freshwaters will have profound effects on fisheries from three perspectives: quantity of fish available, quality of fish available, and success of the fishers. Accordingly, substantive adaptation will very likely be required to conduct fisheries sustainably in the future as these effects take hold. A shift to flexible and rapidly responsive 'adaptive management' of commercial fisheries will be necessary; local land- and resource-use patterns for subsistence fisheries will change; and, the nature, management and place for many recreational fisheries will change. Overall, given the complexity and uncertainty associated with climate change and related effects on arctic freshwaters and their biota, a much more conservative approach to all aspects of fishery management will be required to ensure ecosystems and key fished species retain sufficient resiliency and capacity to meet future changes.