Harvesting the sun: New estimations of the maximum population of planet Earth

The maximum population, also called Earth's carrying capacity, is the maximum number of people that can live on the food and other resources available on planet Earth. Previous investigations estimated the maximum carrying capacity as large as about 1 trillion people under the assumption that photosynthesis is the limiting process. Here we use a present state-of-the-art dynamic global vegetation model with managed planetary land surface, Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL), to calculate the yields of the most productive crops on a global 0.5° × 0.5° grid. Using the 2005 crop distribution the model predicts total harvested calories that are sufficient for the nutrition of 11.4 billion people. We define scenarios where humankind uses the whole land area for agriculture, saves the rain forests and the boreal evergreen forests or cultivates only pasture to feed animals. Every scenario is run in an extreme version with no allowance for urban and recreational needs and in two soft versions with a certain area per person for non-agricultural use. We find that there are natural limits of the maximum carrying capacity which are independent of any increase in agricultural productivity, if non-agricultural land use is accounted for. Using all land planet Earth can sustain 282 billion people. The save-forests-scenario yields 150 billion people. The scenario that cultivates only pasture to feed animals yields 96 billion people. Nevertheless, we should always have in mind that all our calculated numbers for the carrying capacity refer to extreme scenarios where humankind may only vegetate on this planet. Our numbers are considerably higher than the general median estimate of upper bounds of human population found in the literature in the order of 10 billion.     

Marginal costs of abating greenhouse gases in the global ruminant livestock sector

Livestock [inclusive of ruminant species, namely cattle (Bos Taurus and Bos indicus), sheep (Ovis aries), goats (Capra hircus), and buffaloes (Bubalus bubalis), and non-ruminant species, namely pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) and chickens (Gallus domesticus)] are both affected by climate change and contribute as much as 14.5 % of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, most of which is from ruminant animals (Gerber et al. 2013). This study aims to estimate the marginal costs of reducing GHG emissions for a selection of practices in the ruminant livestock sector (inclusive of the major ruminant species—cattle, sheep, and goats) globally. It advances on previous assessments by calculating marginal costs rather than commonly reported average costs of abatement and can thus provide insights about abatement responses at different carbon prices. We selected the most promising abatement options based on their effectiveness and feasibility. Improved grazing management and legume sowing are the main practices assessed in grazing systems. The urea (CO(NH₂)₂) treatment of crop straws is the main practice applied in mixed crop–livestock systems, while the feeding of dietary lipids and nitrates are confined to more intensive production systems. These practices were estimated to reduce emissions by up to 379 metric megatons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) equivalent emissions per year (MtCO₂-eq yr^?1). Two thirds of this reduction was estimated to be possible at a carbon price of 20 US dollars per metric ton of CO₂ equivalent emissions ($20 tCO₂-eq^?1). This study also provides strategic guidance as to where abatement efforts could be most cost effectively targeted. For example, improved grazing management was particularly cost effective in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, while legume sowing appeared to work best in Western Europe and Latin America.     

Volatilization and Metabolism of Pesticides Under Simulated Outdoor Conditions

The fate of 14C-labelled formulated parathion-methyl was investigated for 24 h after application to French beans in a laboratory chamber, where the air temperature and air humidity fluctuations as measured outdoors during a day in August 1993 could be simulated. The wind velocity directly above the plant stand and the radiation intensity could also be simulated with slight restrictions. Under these conditions, 65.9 % and 65.3 % of the A.I. applied volatilized and were directly determined in air samples in two experiments carried out under identical conditions. 28.9 % and 27.8% were determined after 24 h on the plants, only a part of this radioactivity still representing unchanged parathion methyl. The recovery of the radioactivity applied was 94.8 % and 93.1 %, respectively in the two experiments.     

Enzymatic production of biosilica glass using enzymes from sponges: basic aspects and application in nanobiotechnology (material sciences and medicine)

Biomineralization, biosilicification in particular (i.e. the formation of biogenic silica, SiO₂), has become an exciting source of inspiration for the development of novel bionic approaches following “nature as model”. Siliceous sponges are unique among silica forming organisms in their ability to catalyze silica formation using a specific enzyme termed silicatein. In this study, we review the present state of knowledge on silicatein-mediated “biosilica” formation in marine sponges, the involvement of further molecules in silica metabolism and their potential application in nanobiotechnology and medicine. Werner E. G. Müller dedicated this study to Prof. Vera Gamulin (Rudjer Boskovic Institute, Zagreb, Croatia) in honour of her unique contributions in molecular evolution.     

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from a subtropical coastal embayment (Moreton Bay,Australia)

Surface water methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) concentrations and fluxes were investigated in two subtropical coastal embayments (Bramble Bay and Deception Bay, which are part of the greater Moreton Bay, Australia). Measurements were done at 23 stations in seven campaigns covering different seasons during 2010–2012. Water–air fluxes were estimated using the Thin Boundary Layer approach with a combination of wind and currents-based models for the estimation of the gas transfer velocities. The two bays were strong sources of both CH₄ and N₂O with no significant differences in the degree of saturation of both gases between them during all measurement campaigns. Both CH₄ and N₂O concentrations had strong temporal but minimal spatial variability in both bays. During the seven seasons, CH₄ varied between 500% and 4000% saturation while N₂O varied between 128 and 255% in the two bays. Average seasonal CH₄ fluxes for the two bays varied between 0.5 ± 0.2 and 6.0 ± 1.5 mg CH₄/(m²·day) while N₂O varied between 0.4 ± 0.1 and 1.6 ± 0.6 mg N₂O/(m²·day). Weighted emissions (t CO₂-e) were 63%–90% N₂O dominated implying that a reduction in N₂O inputs and/or nitrogen availability in the bays may significantly reduce the bays' greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. Emissions data for tropical and subtropical systems is still scarce. This work found subtropical bays to be significant aquatic sources of both CH₄ and N₂O and puts the estimated fluxes into the global context with measurements done from other climatic regions.     

Revealing Preferences for Reductions of Public Risks: An Application of the CV Approach

In this paper the contingent valuation method (CVM) is applied to public risk reduction. Theory suggests that the size of the stated willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction depends on private activities aimed at reducing the risk level for the individual. The empirical results suggest that considering private averting activities increases the explanatory power of the estimated WTP function significantly. Thus, WTP passes the scope test which proposes that larger reductions from a larger baseline risk should be valued higher than lower risk reductions from a lower baseline risk. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the follow-up response format induces anchoring effects.