The performance of state-of-the-art modelling techniques depends on geographical distribution of species

We explored the effects of prevalence, latitudinal range and clumping (spatial autocorrelation) of species distribution patterns on the predictive accuracy of eight state-of-the-art modelling techniques: Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), Generalized Boosting Method (GBM), Generalized Additive Models (GAMs), Classification Tree Analysis (CTA), Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), Mixture Discriminant Analysis (MDA) and Random Forest (RF). One hundred species of Lepidoptera, selected from the Distribution Atlas of European Butterflies, and three climate variables were used to determine the bioclimatic envelope for each butterfly species. The data set consisting of 2620 grid squares 30′ × 60′ in size all over Europe was randomly split into the calibration and the evaluation data sets. The performance of different models was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. Observed differences in modelling accuracy among species were then related to the geographical attributes of the species using GAM. The modelling performance was negatively related to the latitudinal range and prevalence, whereas the effect of spatial autocorrelation on prediction accuracy depended on the modelling technique. These three geographical attributes accounted for 19–61% of the variation in the modelling accuracy. Predictive accuracy of GAM, GLM and MDA was highly influenced by the three geographical attributes, whereas RF, ANN and GBM were moderately, and MARS and CTA only slightly affected. The contrasting effects of geographical distribution of species on predictive performance of different modelling techniques represent one source of uncertainty in species spatial distribution models. This should be taken into account in biogeographical modelling studies and assessments of climate change impacts.     

Jamaica in the World Aluminum Industry, 1938–1973: Carlton E. Davis Jamaica Bauxite Institute, Kingston, 1989, $20.00

The Climax molybdenum mine, once dominant in a burgeoning molybdenum market, is now beset with a cyclical market showing little secular growth, lower prices from growing byproduct production, the development of other lower cost primary mines and idle capacity. It has abandoned its resources and closed most of its operations.     

Accounting for Climate Change: Introduction

The assessment of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted to and removed from the atmosphere is high on both political and scientific agendas internationally. As increasing international concern and cooperation aim at policy-oriented solutions to the climate change problem, several issues have begun to arise regarding verification and compliance under both proposed and legislated schemes meant to reduce the human-induced global climate impact. The approaches to addressing uncertainty introduced in this article attempt to improve national inventories or to provide a basis for the standardization of inventory estimates to enable comparison of emissions and emission changes across countries. Authors of the accompanying articles use detailed uncertainty analyses to enforce the current structure of the emission trading system and attempt to internalize high levels of uncertainty by tailoring the emissions trading market rules. Assessment of uncertainty can help improve inventories and manage risk. Through recognizing the importance of, identifying and quantifying uncertainties, great strides can be made in the process of Accounting for Climate Change.     

Spatial predictions of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making

Considering genetic relatedness among species has long been argued as an important step toward measuring biological diversity more accurately, rather than relying solely on species richness. Some researchers have correlated measures of phylogenetic diversity and species richness across a series of sites and suggest that values of phylogenetic diversity do not differ enough from those of species richness to justify their inclusion in conservation planning. We compared predictions of species richness and 10 measures of phylogenetic diversity by creating distribution models for 168 individual species of a species-rich plant family, the Cape Proteaceae. When we used average amounts of land set aside for conservation to compare areas selected on the basis of species richness with areas selected on the basis of phylogenetic diversity, correlations between species richness and different measures of phylogenetic diversity varied considerably. Correlations between species richness and measures that were based on the length of phylogenetic tree branches and tree shape were weaker than those that were based on tree shape alone. Elevation explained up to 31% of the segregation of species rich versus phylogenetically rich areas. Given these results, the increased availability of molecular data, and the known ecological effect of phylogenetically rich communities, consideration of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making may be feasible and informative.     

Spatial Distribution of Soil Attributes in the Concórdia River Watershed in Southern Brazil

Using geographic information system, soil sampling, and statistical analysis to map anthropogenic effects on soil     

Bedded Sediment Conditions and Macroinvertebrate Responses in New Mexico Streams: A First Step in Establishing Sediment Criteria

Excess fine sediments in streambeds are among the most pervasive causes of degradation in streams of the United States. Simple criteria for acceptable streambed fines are elusive because streambed fines and biotic tolerances vary widely in the absence of human disturbances. In response to the need for sediment benchmarks that are protective of minimum aquatic life uses under the Clean Water Act, we undertook a case study using surveys of sediment, physical habitat, and macroinvertebrates from New Mexico streams. Our approach uses weight of evidence to develop suggested benchmarks for protective levels of surficial bedded sediments <0.06 mm (silt and finer) and <2.0 mm (sand and finer). We grouped streams into three ecoregions that were expected to produce similar naturally occurring streambed textures and patterns of response to human disturbances. Within ecoregions, we employed stressor response models to estimate fine sediment percentages and bed stability that are tolerated by resident macroinvertebrates. We then compared individual stream sediment data with distributions among least‐disturbed reference sites to determine deviation from natural conditions, accounting for natural variability across ecoregion, gradient, and drainage area. This approach for developing benchmark values could be applied more widely to provide a solid basis for developing bedded sediment criteria and other protective management strategies in other regions.     

Miniaturized test system for soil respiration induced by volatile pollutants

A miniaturized method based on 96-well microtitre plates was developed and used to study respiration in pristine and contaminated soils following addition of volatile substrates. Small soil samples were exposed to fuel components, which were volatilized from spatially separate reservoirs of 2,2,4,4,6,8,8-heptamethylnonane (HMN) as an organic carrier. Respiration was determined as CO(2) production by means of a pH-indicator and bicarbonate-containing agar, or as (14)CO(2) evolution from (14)C-labelled substrates. Substrate concentrations inducing maximum microbial activity or inhibition were determined and CO(2) production profiles examined by multivariate analysis. When high concentrations of fuel components were applied, distinction of hydrocarbon exposed soils from unexposed soil was achieved within 6 h of incubation. With low concentrations, adequate distinction was achieved after 24 h, probably as a result of community adaptation. Nutrient limitation was identified with the (14)C method for toluene, and the optimal N and P amendment determined. Further potential applications of this rapid and inexpensive method are outlined.     

Correction to: The time of concentration application in studies around the world: a review

Environmental Science and Pollution Research -