Will Observation Error and Biases Ruin the Use of Simple Extinction Models?

Abstract: Estimating the risk of extinction for populations of endangered species is an important component of conservation biology. These estimates must be made from data that contain both environmental noise in the year-to-year transitions in population size (so-called "process error"), random errors in sampling, and possible biases in sampling ( both forms of observation errors). To determine how much faith to place in estimated extinction rates, it is important to know how sensitive they are to observation error. We used three simple, commonly employed models of population dynamics to generate simulated population time series. We then combined random observation error or systematic biases with those data, fit models to the time series data, and observed how close the extinction dynamics of the fitted models compared with the dynamics of the underlying models. We found that systematic biases in sampling rarely affected estimates of extinction risk. We also found that even moderate levels of random observation error do not significantly affect extinction estimates except over a small range of process errors, corresponding to the region where extinction risk is most uncertain. With more substantial sampling error, estimates of extinction risk degraded rapidly. Field census techniques for a variety of taxa often involve observation errors within ±32% of actual population sizes. For typical time series used in conservation, therefore, we often may not need to be overly concerned about observation errors as an extra source of imperfection in our estimated extinction rates.     

An experiment on the ability of free-ranging turkey vultures (Cathartes aura) to locate carrion by chemical cues

((without abstract.))     

The sands of Forvie (Scotland): A case study in geomorphology and conservational management

The Sands of Forvie, National Nature Reserve, Scotland is a complex coastal sand dune system which is associated with the dynamic estuary of the River Ythan. The dune system has developed over more than 5000 years. The south part is a peninsula of dunes, sand hills, sand arcs, erosion and deflation surfaces. The north part is superimposed on a rock plateau with a cliff coastline. This plateau is covered in glacial deposits and is essentially an upland heath landscape. Some of the best examples of large active parabolic dunes in Britain are found in North Forvie. The sequence of geomorphic development is described. As a nature reserve with a rich ecology it has been managed for conservational purposes since 1960s. As such it is an excellent case study of how conservational management has changed to become more flexible and more aware of the importance of dynamic processes.     

The rationales behind the unit-segment theory and its analysis methodology for modeling vehicular movement networks

The theory of space accessibility analysis, space syntax, has been considered for capturing trip-makers’ route-choice decisions with an understanding that, while selecting routes, trip-makers tend to follow forward-facing fields traditionally represented by axial lines. But the idea of treating axial lines as a set of roadway segments representing an urban texture has remained under scrutiny when distinct procedures have been tested without much success. Nor has the axial-line theory seemed to gain much popularity within the orthodox transportation planning community. Studies show that a long axial line is found gaining configurational centrality, in general, for being well connected to its incident lines. Fragmenting a long axial line results in weakening it (in centrality terms), but also in generating a locally oriented model. Recent investigations, dealing with this problem, have resulted in the emergence of the unit-segment theory, which has turned out to be more sensitive to the local structures located within a large urban texture than the axial counterpart for the purpose of modeling vehicular movement networks without using origin–destination trip-counts. Essentially, the question now is: Is the unit-segment analysis also capable of generating syntax configurations that are equally sensitive to large and complex urban textures? What should be the methodology of such an analysis? This paper throws deeper insights into these questions by producing theoretical and empirical research findings and seeks to develop a common ground for both transportation planning and space syntax communities to work together for gaining a better understanding of how urban configurations relate to urban vehicular movement networks.     

Responding to a policy mandate to collaborate: structuring collaboration in the collaborative forest landscape restoration program

The Collaborative Forest Landscape Restoration Program (CFLRP) aims to expand the pace and scale of forest restoration on national forests in the United States. The program requires candidate projects to develop landscape-scale forest restoration proposals through a collaborative process and continue to collaborate throughout planning, implementation, and monitoring. Our comparative case analysis of the initial selected projects examines how existing collaborative groups draw on past experience of collaboration and the requirements of a new mandate to shape collaborative structures as they undertake CFLRP work. While mandating collaboration appears contrary to what is often defined as an informal and emergent process, mandates can encourage stakeholder engagement and renew commitment to overcome past conflict. Our findings also suggest that a collaborative mandate can lead to increased attention and scrutiny, prompting adjustments to collaborative process and structure. As such, mandating collaboration creates dynamic tensions between past experience and new requirements for collaborative practice.     

Identifying and modeling key trade-offs between hydrogen fuel cell and electric vehicles

Through a sensitivity analysis, the trade-off between vehicle range and CO₂ emissions is investigated as a function of electric emissions coefficient. Various powertrains were analysed for use in a small crossover sport utility vehicle. Gasoline, gasoline electric hybrid, diesel, fuel cell and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were considered. Using various upstream fuel pathways and a model for vehicle performance, emissions and energy use were estimated. The hydrogen fuel cell vehicle was found preferable to BEVs under conditions of high CO₂ emissions per kW-hr and a high vehicle range requirement. The BEV was preferable for all other conditions.     

Static and Dynamic Behavior of Fibrous Polymeric Composite Materials at Different Environmental Conditions

The study of static and dynamic behavior of environmentally conditioned fibre reinforced polymeric (FRP) composites is necessary and crucial to examine the durability, reliability and sustainability of these noble materials. FRP composites are being used all around the globe and substituting the conventional materials, starting from mini toys to large aerospace components. Present review has introduced to accumulate and understand the disseminate literature in concentrating the significance of understanding the static and dynamic behavior of FRPs with changing environmental conditionings (hygrothermal, low and high temperature, salt solution, freeze thaw, UV light) and with the interaction of different nano-fillers. Their stability and integrity in diverse service environments may be reformed by their reactions against different nature of loadings i.e. static or dynamic and the components such as fibre, matrix and fibre/matrix interfaces in those environments. The static and dynamic states of loading may come with a possible weaker region to encounter the durability and integrity of the composites. To understand the exact failure modes that correlates the position of environmentally conditioned interfaces and dynamic state of loadings, thus confusing the estimation of its overall performance and mechanical behavior. Interface reliability and durability is vital since in-service environments the degradation in the interfacial region leads to complete composite failure. Therefore, the study of combined effects of various in-service environmental conditions and the role of static and dynamic behavior on the interface will be a crucial part related to the multiaxial dynamic states of failures occurring in FRP’s.     

Optimal Reorganization of NASA Earth Science Data for Enhanced Accessibility and Usability for the Hydrology Community

A long‐standing “Digital Divide” in data representation exists between the preferred way of data access by the hydrology community and the common way of data archival by earth science data centers. Typically, in hydrology, earth surface features are expressed as discrete spatial objects (e.g., watersheds), and time‐varying data are contained in associated time series. Data in earth science archives, although stored as discrete values (of satellite swath pixels or geographical grids), represent continuous spatial fields, one file per time step. This Divide has been an obstacle, specifically, between the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, Inc. and NASA earth science data systems. In essence, the way data are archived is conceptually orthogonal to the desired method of access. Our recent work has shown an optimal method of bridging the Divide, by enabling operational access to long‐time series (e.g., 36 years of hourly data) of selected NASA datasets. These time series, which we have termed “data rods,” are pre‐generated or generated on‐the‐fly. This optimal solution was arrived at after extensive investigations of various approaches, including one based on “data curtains.” The on‐the‐fly generation of data rods uses “data cubes,” NASA Giovanni, and parallel processing. The optimal reorganization of NASA earth science data has significantly enhanced the access to and use of the data for the hydrology user community.