Are there higher pedestrian fatalities in larger cities?: A scaling analysis of 115 to 161 largest cities in the United States

Objective: In 2012, 4,743 pedestrians were killed in the United States, representing 14% of total traffic fatalities. The number of pedestrians injured was higher at 76,000. Therefore, 36 out of 52 of the largest cities in the United States have adopted a citywide target of reducing pedestrian fatalities. The number of cities adopting the reduction goal during 2011 and 2012 increased rapidly with 8 more cities. We examined the scaling relationship of pedestrian fatality counts as a function of the population size of 115 to 161 large U.S. cities during the period of 1994 to 2011. We also examined the scaling relationship of nonpedestrian and total traffic fatality counts as a function of the population size.

Methods: For the data source of fatality measures we used Traffic Safety Facts Fatality Analysis Reporting System/General Estimates System annual reports published each year from 1994 to 2011 by the NHTSA. Using the data source we conducted both annual cross-sectional and panel data bivariate and multivariate regression models. In the construction of the estimated functional relationship between traffic fatality measures and various factors, we used the simple power function for urban scaling used by Bettencourt et al. (2007 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Helbing D, Kühnert C, West GB. Growth, innovation, scaling and the pace of life in cities. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2007;104:7301–7306.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 2010 Bettencourt LMA, Lobo J, Strumsky D, West GB. Urban scaling and its deviations: revealing the structure of wealth, innovation and crime across cities. PLoS ONE. 2010;5:e13541.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and the refined STIRPAT (stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology) model used in Dietz and Rosa (1994 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Rethinking the environmental impacts of population, affluence and technology. Human Ecology Review. 1994;1:277–300. [Google Scholar], 1997 Dietz T, Rosa EA. Effects of population and affluence on CO₂ emissions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 1997;94:175–179.[Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and York et al. (2003 York R, Rosa EA, Dietz T. STIRPAT, IPAT and IMPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts. Ecol Econ. 2003;46:351–365.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]).

Results: We found that the scaling relationship display diseconomies of scale or sublinear for pedestrian fatalities. However, the relationship displays a superlinear relationship in case of nonpedestrian fatalities. The scaling relationship for total traffic fatality counts display a nearly linear pattern. When the relationship was examined by the 4 subgroups of cities with different population sizes, the most pronounced sublinear scaling relationships for all 3 types of fatality counts was discovered for the subgroup of megacities with a population of more than 1 million.

Conclusions: The scaling patterns of traffic fatalities of subgroups of cities depend on population sizes of the cities in subgroups. In particular, 9 megacities with populations of more than 1 million are significantly different from the remaining cities and should be viewed as a totally separate group. Thus, analysis of the patterns of traffic fatalities needs to be conducted within the group of megacities separately from the other cities with smaller population sizes for devising prevention policies to reduce traffic fatalities in both megacities and smaller cities.     

威布尔分布环境折合因子计算及其应用研究

目的对不同环境条件试验下的数据进行融合。方法针对应用最为普遍的威布尔分布类型的环境折合因子进行研究,给出威布尔分布环境折合因子的定义,根据极大似然估计法对威布尔分布环境折合因子进行计算。结果得出了相关环境折合因子的计算结果,在此基础上给出了应用环境折合因子进行数据融合的方法和步骤。结论应用威布尔分布环境折合因子可以合理的对不同环境下试验数据进行融合,达到扩大试验样本的目的。     

碳钢管路在某型艇舱底水中的腐蚀原因分析

目的调查20号碳钢在海水和舱内污水中的腐蚀原因。方法采用全浸腐蚀试验、电偶腐蚀测试、电化学测试和腐蚀形貌分析等方法对某型艇碳钢海水管路的腐蚀原因进行研究。结果获得了20号碳钢在海水和舱内污水中的腐蚀速率、腐蚀电位、极化曲线、阻抗图谱、腐蚀形貌等数据。结论舱底碳钢管的腐蚀主要是由于管内海水的腐蚀、焊接对管材的热影响和舱内污水的腐蚀作用引起的,其中管内海水的腐蚀作用是主要因素。     

环境空气质量评价体系研究

近年来,中国快速的城镇化进程和巨大的工业化发展衍生了严重的环境问题,大气污染问题越来越受到政府和社会各界的广泛关注,以某地环境空气自动监测数据为依据,分别采用中国大陆的环境空气质量标准与美国、香港的环境空气质量标准从污染物控制项目及限值、标准分区分级污染物浓度达标的统计要求等方面进行了综合对比的计算和分析,提出了完善评价体系的补充方案,实现补充和完善中国的环境空气质量评价体系的目的,评价结果更切合公众的自身感受,为大气污染防治提供更有力的技术支撑。     

经济发达城市全面建成小康社会环境目标指标研究——以深圳市为例

从深圳新形势下率先全面建成更高水平的小康社会的发展和公众需求分析入手,分析当前全面建成小康社会的环境进程和构建全面小康环境目标指标体系的必要性.基于全过程、全覆盖、惠民性和衔接性考虑,提出应尊重深圳当前所处社会经济与环境阶段,遵守全过程防控思路,以人口、区域全覆盖和环境要素全面改善为工作核心,建立全社会行动体系,确立更严标准、更高质量的全面建成小康环境目标,构建包含源头防控、治污减排、质量提升、社会参与的全面建成小康社会环境指标体系.     

川东某水泥厂周围水稻金属元素含量分析研究

对川东北某水泥厂周围农田的大米进行检测,分析其铁、钙、镁、锌、铜、镉、铅的含量是否符合标准,进而判断该地区的大米是否受水泥粉尘影响.收集某水泥厂周围1.5公里内的大米作为实验组,收集本地区非水泥粉尘污染区的大米作对照组,用火焰原子吸收光谱法测定铁、钙、锓、锌、铜5种元素含量和石墨炉原子吸收光谱法测定镉、铅两种元素含量.将所得结果与《粮食卫生标准》进行对比,分析两类地区的大米中该元素的差异.对比《粮食卫生标准》,实验组和对照组都存在铅含量超标的情况,其余元素均符合国家标准.而实验组与对照组之间的差异无统计学意义(P＞0.05).水泥粉尘对大米中金属元素没有明显影响.     

温岭市高架道路交通噪声空间分布规律与防治对策研究

为评价温岭市东环高架道路交通噪声的环境影响,采用实测法对东环高架附近代表性点位及不同时间段进行噪声监测,记录等效连续A声级(Leq),以及同步监测车流量、车型等相关数据.根据《声环境质量标准》(GB 3096-2008),由所得监测数据,推测其交通噪声空间分布规律.结果表明,噪声最大值发生于上下班高峰期,交通噪声则随距离的增加而衰减,而道路两侧高层建筑交通噪声随着高度的增加先由小变大后变小.此外,还为该高架道路交通噪声的防治提供一定的参考依据.     

辽宁省土壤污染概况及污染防治技术需求

基于对辽宁省土壤环境的总体状况归纳及描述,提出适合城市工业污染场地、大型矿区污染土壤、地下水及污灌区农田污染土壤的修复技术重点及方向建议。文章提出,突破有机物热脱附、重金属固化/稳定化、淋洗、微生物降解、植物萃取、风险削减、农艺调控等关键技术,形成具有自主知识产权的集成技术体系,建立土壤环境监管大数据平台,对辽宁及东北地区的污染场地/土壤治理具有重要意义。     

中国大陆地区高校地球科学学科发展水平的国际比较与启示

通过对QS、Us News和ESI地球科学领域排行榜评价指标和结果的分析,发现中国大陆地区高校在地球科学学科领域进步明显,但与地球科学学科领域世界顶尖的高校相比,还存在较大的差距。为了有针对性地提高我国大陆地区高校地球科学学科的核心竞争力,指出必须促进地球科学与环境科学交叉研究,并从规划管理、队伍建设、协同创新与人才培养等角度提出了相关建议。     

去腐蚀产物膏及氧化膏性能研究

目的研究自主研发的BT-2G钢腐蚀产物去除和快速磷化膏、ALT-1铝合金去腐蚀产物膏以及LYG-2铝合金局部化学氧化膏性能。方法观察并检测各种膏体的外观、流淌度、处理时间,并研究BT-2G处理样品的漆膜结合力及氢脆性能,ALT-1的去腐蚀效率和基体腐蚀性,LYG-2处理样品的漆膜结合力和耐蚀性。结果各种膏体均匀浓稠,流淌度均小于1 mm,在3 h内均可以完成处理过程,另外,BT-2G处理的样品可以通过漆膜结合力和氢脆测试,ALT-1的去腐蚀效率大于90%且对基体基本无腐蚀性,LYG-2通过漆膜结合力测试且中性盐雾72 h无腐蚀。结论各种膏体均满足飞机外场维修使用要求,可应用于维护/维修。