Probabilistic risk assessment for pedestrian–vehicle collision considering uncertainties of pedestrian mobility

Objectives: The uncertainties of pedestrian mobility are important factors affecting the accuracy and robustness of an active pedestrian protection system. This study is to provide the means for probabilistic risk evaluation of pedestrian–vehicle collision by counting the uncertainties in pedestrian motion.

Method: The pedestrian is modeled by a first-order Markov model to characterize the stochastic properties in mobility according to field experiments of pedestrians crossing an uncontrolled road. Based on the assumption of Gaussian distribution, unscented transformation (UT) is employed to predict the collision risk probability with the symmetric σ-set constructed on the basis of discrete trajectory simulation. Simulation experiments were carried out with 10,000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as the reference.

Results: The probability density distributions of time-to-collision, minimal distance, and collision probability estimated by UT coincide with the reference ones under various vehicle–pedestrian conflict scenarios, and the maximal deviation of collision probability from the reference is 5.33%. The UT method is about 600 times faster than the MC method (10,000 runs), which means that the proposed method has the potential for online application.

Conclusions: This article presents an effective and efficient algorithm to estimate the collision probability by using a UT method to solve the nonlinear transformation of uncertainties in pedestrian motion. Simulation results show that the UT-based method achieves accurate collision probability estimation and higher computation efficiency than MC and provides more valuable information concerning collision avoidance than the deterministic methods in the design of a pedestrian collision avoidance system.     

有色可溶性有机物在线荧光技术在水质监测中的应用

FDOM（荧光有机物）在线荧光探头是采用激发波长370 nm和发射波长460 nm下荧光强度来计算水体CDOM（有色可溶性有机物）丰度的传感器,为探究该传感器在内陆水体水质监测中的应用和适用性,以水源供给水库千岛湖为案例,通过FDOM荧光探头监测该湖泊不同季节CDOM丰度,结合CDOM光谱吸收、ρ（DOC）（DOC表示溶解性有机碳）、ρ（TN）、ρ（TP）、ρ（COD_Mn）、ρ（DTN）（DTN表示溶解性总氮）、ρ（DTP）（DTP表示溶解性总磷）和ρ（Chla）等水质参数数据,揭示FDOM荧光强度与其他水质参数的耦合关系,检验FDOM荧光探头对有机物的监测能力.结果表明:①2014年5月千岛湖TLI平均值（38.4±4.4）显著高于2018年10月TLI平均值34.9±3.0（t-test,P < 0.001）,根据TLI及各水质参数平均值判定该湖处于中贫营养状态.②大部分水质参数呈现出由西北入湖河口向下游大坝出水口方向递减的趋势,表明上游新安江对该湖有机物具有较大的贡献.③FDOM荧光强度与CDOM吸收系数a（254）（R2=0.91,P < 0.01）、a（350）（R2=0.90,P < 0.01）均呈极显著正相关且具有较高的线性拟合优度,这意味着FDOM荧光强度可以很好地表征CDOM丰度.④FDOM荧光强度与ρ（DOC）（R2=0.49,P < 0.01）、ρ（TN）（R2=0.61,P < 0.01）、ρ（TP）（R2=0.75,P < 0.01）、ρ（COD_Mn）（R2=0.35,P < 0.01）、ρ（DTN）（R2=0.59,P < 0.01）、ρ（DTP）（R2=0.56,P < 0.01）、ρ（Chla）（R2=0.68,P < 0.01）均呈极显著正相关且与大多数水质参数具有相似的分布特征,并且能很好地识别潜在污染物高值区.研究显示,荧光探头在可见波长下所得陆源类腐殖酸FDOM荧光强度能很好地成为潜在污染物替代指标,并能有效呈现有机物分布特征,因而该技术在饮用水湖泊水质监测中具有潜在广阔的应用前景.      

碳排放约束下的农业生产效率及其空间格局——基于河南省65个村庄的调查

基于村庄尺度探索碳排放约束下的农业生产效率,对于差别化的低碳农业生产模式的选择具有一定的理论和实践意义。基于河南省65个村庄的调查数据,对不同样点的农业碳排放进行了核算,并采用Super-SBM模型分析了碳排放约束下的农业生产效率的差异。结果表明：河南省农业碳排放强度呈现“南北高,中间低”的空间分布格局,这主要受种植结构、农业生产条件、人类各项投入等因素的影响;碳排放约束下的河南省农业生产效率具有较大的空间差异,根据农业生产效率和碳排放强度的关系,可将样点村庄分为低碳高效村、高碳低效村、高碳高效村和低碳低效村四种类型。其中高碳低效村和低碳低效村的比例较大。建议未来应加强农业规模化经营、减少能源和物资投入、完善农业基础设施、推广节水节能新技术,在提高农业生产效率的同时推动农业低碳发展。     

长江中游岸线资源与开发利用适宜性评价分析

长江中游岸线资源丰富,开发利用价值较大。通过充分分析长江中游岸线资源特征与地质环境条件,从地质学角度构建港口码头、过江隧道与过江大桥等重大工程建设适宜性评价模型,运用层次分析法（AHP）划定出三种工程类型一级岸线（适宜）、二级岸线（较适宜）、三级岸线（一般适宜）与四级岸线（非优先开发）区域范围。由结果可知：长江中游岸线港口码头以非优先开发区域为主,长度合计931.47 km,占岸线总长的46.71%;过江隧道与过江大桥以较适宜开发、一般适宜开发区域为主,较适宜开发、一般适宜开发区长度合计分别为1550.75 km、1224.18 km,占岸线总长的77.77%、61.39%。最后,针对三种工程类型适宜性等级特征提出相应地学对策建议,为重大工程部署规划提供地学理论依据,促进长江中游岸线资源科学合理开发利用与有效保护,以期推动长江经济带发展与国土空间规划,保护大长江持续健康发展。     

人为热对广州高温天气影响的数值模拟个例分析

基于广州市2009,2000和1990年工业、交通、生活能源统计数据,通过能源清单法估算出广州市对应年份的人为热排放量,再通过在WRF模式中引入2009,2000和1990年的下垫面数据和人为热排放方案,对2005,2012和2017年广州市的3次持续高温过程进行模拟,从而评估不同年代人为热排放水平对广州市极端高温天气的影响.结果表明,模拟的2m气温较为准确,能合理模拟出城市地区的热岛效应,但对极端高温的模拟略有偏低,而引入人为热有助于改善模拟结果.在case2012中,2009,2000和1990年3种人为热排放水平使广州城市下垫面的平均气温分别上升0.53,0.44和0.13℃,热岛强度增强0.43,0.38和0.13℃.3个模拟个例的结果均表明,日间的人为热排放比夜间大,但夜间气温及热岛强度的变化比日间要明显.     

工程渣土的资源化处理处置分析

我国工程渣土产生量大、综合利用率低,成为城市发展过程中亟待解决的重要环境问题,对其资源化利用是未来的发展趋势。文章提出了工程渣土资源化处理处置模式,为其资源化处理提供系统的可行方向。结合城市建设进程和不同的盾构施工技术,选取长沙市地铁施工产生的渣土为研究对象,通过取样及污染分析,确定了工程渣土污染成分并对盾构渣土的资源化提出基本方向。另外,提出了建筑垃圾再生砂石骨料的生产流程;分析了盾构泥饼中各元素含量,探究了渣土烧制陶粒的可行性及需要的条件;提出了泥饼制砖的两种方法、泥饼再利用为种植土的方法。同时,以长沙市地铁建设产生的工程渣土为背景,预测砂石的产生量及经济价值分析,盾构泥饼资源化利用后产生的经济价值。     

Emissions of intermediate volatility organic compound from waste cooking oil biodiesel and marine gas oil on a ship auxiliary engine

Ship auxiliary engines contribute large amounts of air pollutants when at berth.Biodiesel,including that from waste cooking oil(WCO),can favor a reduction in the emission of primary pollutant when used with internal combustion engines.This study investigated the emissions of gaseous intermediate-volatile organic compounds(IVOCs) between WCO biodiesel and marine gas oil(MGO) to further understand the differences in secondary organic aerosol(SOA) production of exhausts.Results revealed that WCO exhaust exhibited similar IVOC composition and volatility distribution to MGO exhaust,despite the differences between fuel contents.While WCO biodiesel could reduce IVOC emissions by 50% as compared to MGO,and thus reduced the SOA production from IVOCs.The compositions and volatility distributions of exhaust IVOCs varied to those of their fuels,implying that fuel-component-based SOA predicting model should be used with more cautions when assessing SOA production of WCO and MGO exhausts.WCO biodiesel is a cleaner fuel comparing to conventional MGO on ship auxiliary engines with regard to the reductions in gaseous IVOC emissions and corresponding SOA productions.Although the tests were conducted on test bench,the results could be considered as representative due to the widely applications of the test engine and MGO fuel on real-world ships.     

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and risk for premature ovarian failure and reproductive hormones imbalance

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a typical class of persistent organic pollutants that is ubiquitous worldwide. Previous animal studies suggested that PAHs had adverse effects on female reproduction. However, the human data regarding relationship of PAHs exposure with women reproductive health, such as ovarian dysfunction, are scarce. In this case-control study, the associations of serum levels of PAHs with the risk of premature ovarian failure (POF) and reproductive hormones in Chinese women were investigated, with recruiting 157 POF patients and 217 healthy women. The serum levels of 12 types of PAHs, as well as reproductive hormones, including follicle-stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone and anti-mullerian hormone, were determined. In the logistic regression models, most individual PAH congeners showed significantly positive correlations with the risk of POF (p < 0.05), except for fluorine and pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), as the most carcinogenic PAH congener, was observed to be significantly positively associated with the risk of POF. After adjustment for age, body mass index, educational levels and household income, per one-unit increase in the log-transformed BaP concentration was significantly correlated with 2.191-fold increased risk of POF (OR = 2.191, 95%CI: 1.634–2.938, p < 0.05). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to report an association between internal exposure levels of PAHs and the increased risk of POF in women.     

查干湖汇水区面源污染风险识别及管控

面源污染是我国流域面临的主要水环境问题,为了识别面源污染高风险区和潜在风险路径,实现流域水环境保护,以查干湖水质目标为约束条件,构建4类关键“源”景观.选取高程、坡度、土地利用类型、污染强度、距居民点距离、距公路距离、距铁路距离、距水体距离等8个评价因子构建阻力面,对查干湖汇水区面源污染风险区和风险路径进行识别,提出管控分区和治理措施.结果表明:①查干湖汇水区关键“源”景观有4类,分别为面源污染单位面积高负荷区、坡度>3°区域、污染传输通道和临湖区域,面积共126.33 km2.②查干湖汇水区面源污染高风险区即面源污染重点管控区,占汇水区总面积的27.10%,主要位于乾安灌区有字泡区域、查干湖及周边泡沼沿岸.区内现有耕地不再增加,同时对坡度较大的区域退耕还湿、退耕还草,并设置污染降解设施.③查干湖汇水区面源污染较高风险区即面源污染一般管控区,占汇水区总面积的20.23%.该区鼓励开展有机农业,发展生态旅游.④查干湖北岸和东南岸、库里泡周边设置一定宽度的植被缓冲带,汇水区设置生态降解渠道333.41 km,生态湿地节点9个.研究显示,污染排放强度是查干湖汇水区面源污染风险的主要威胁因素,需要重点加强查干湖汇水区乾安灌区有字泡、湖区北岸及东南岸的面源污染管控.      

外加纤维素酶和α-淀粉酶对猪粪厌氧发酵的促进机制

为有效缩短有机物厌氧发酵限制阶段的反应时间,提高发酵底物的生物产甲烷效率,以猪粪为发酵底物,添加外源纤维素酶和α-淀粉酶,应用一级动力学模型和Gompertz模型拟合厌氧发酵过程.结果表明:适量添加纤维素酶和α-淀粉酶对厌氧发酵系统的水解反应具有积极的促进作用,当两种酶的总添加量为40 mg/g、纤维素酶和α-淀粉酶配比为1:3时促进作用最为显著,其多糖浓度、TVFAs（乙酸、丙酸、丁酸和戊酸的统称）浓度峰值、累积沼气产气量、甲烷产率（基于猪粪中挥发性固体含量计算）分别为4 494 mg/L、8 666 mg/L、187 688 mL、392.1 mL/g,与CK（对照）组比分别提高了171.0%、23.3%、23.5%、24.3%.相关性分析表明,外源酶的添加对厌氧发酵系统中微生物可利用的C/N具有显著影响,可有效促进TVFAs转化产甲烷,当纤维素酶和α-淀粉酶配比为1:3时,厌氧发酵过程具有最大反应速率〔32.95 mL/（g·d）〕,与CK组相比水力停留时间（HRT）缩短了2.5 d,生物产甲烷效率提高了24.3%,厌氧发酵过程符合Gompertz模型（R2=0.999 2）.研究显示,纤维素酶和α-淀粉酶对促进猪粪厌氧发酵有协同作用,当α-淀粉酶添加量不超过30 mg/g时,α-淀粉酶添加量与甲烷产率呈正相关;当纤维素酶添加量超过10 mg/g时,纤维系酶添加量与甲烷产率呈负相关.