Objectives: The uncertainties of pedestrian mobility are important factors affecting the accuracy and robustness of an active pedestrian protection system. This study is to provide the means for probabilistic risk evaluation of pedestrian–vehicle collision by counting the uncertainties in pedestrian motion.
Method: The pedestrian is modeled by a first-order Markov model to characterize the stochastic properties in mobility according to field experiments of pedestrians crossing an uncontrolled road. Based on the assumption of Gaussian distribution, unscented transformation (UT) is employed to predict the collision risk probability with the symmetric σ-set constructed on the basis of discrete trajectory simulation. Simulation experiments were carried out with 10,000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as the reference.
Results: The probability density distributions of time-to-collision, minimal distance, and collision probability estimated by UT coincide with the reference ones under various vehicle–pedestrian conflict scenarios, and the maximal deviation of collision probability from the reference is 5.33%. The UT method is about 600 times faster than the MC method (10,000 runs), which means that the proposed method has the potential for online application.
Conclusions: This article presents an effective and efficient algorithm to estimate the collision probability by using a UT method to solve the nonlinear transformation of uncertainties in pedestrian motion. Simulation results show that the UT-based method achieves accurate collision probability estimation and higher computation efficiency than MC and provides more valuable information concerning collision avoidance than the deterministic methods in the design of a pedestrian collision avoidance system. 相似文献
The source apportionment of PM2.5 is essential for pollution prevention. In view of the weaknesses of individual models, we proposed an integrated chemical mass balance-source emission inventory (CMB-SEI) model to acquire more accurate results. First, the SEI of secondary component precursors (SO2, NOx, NH3, and VOCs) was compiled to acquire the emission ratios of these sources for the precursors. Then, a regular CMB simulation was executed to obtain the contributions of primary particle sources and secondary components (SO42?, NO3-, NH4+, and SOC). Afterwards, the contributions of secondary components were apportioned into primary sources according to the source emission ratios. The final source apportionment results combined the contributions of primary sources by CMB and SEI. This integrated approach was carried out via a case study of three coastal cities (Zhoushan, Taizhou, and Wenzhou; abbreviated WZ, TZ, and ZS) in Zhejiang Province, China. The regular CMB simulation results showed that PM2.5 pollution was mainly affected by secondary components and mobile sources. The SEI results indicated that electricity, industrial production and mobile sources were the largest contributors to the emission of PM2.5 gaseous precursors. The simulation results of the CMB-SEI model showed that PM2.5 pollution in the coastal areas of Zhejiang Province presented complex pollution characteristics dominated by mobile sources, electricity production sources and industrial production sources. Compared to the results of the CMB and SEI models alone, the CMB-SEI model completely apportioned PM2.5 to primary sources and simultaneously made the results more accurate and reliable in accordance with local industrial characteristics. 相似文献
Reaction rate constants and products of 1-octen-3-one, 3-octen-2-one and 4-hexen-3-one with ozone were studied in a 100-L fluorinated ethylene propylene (FEP) Teflon film bag using absolute rate method at 298 ± 1 K and atmospheric pressure. The rate constants were (1.09 ± 0.12) × 10?17, (3.48 ± 0.36) × 10?17 and (5.70 ± 0.60) × 10?17 cm3/(molecule?sec), respectively. According to the obtained rate constants, the effects of carbonyl were discussed. The carbonyl group in β position has a net withdrawing effect with respect to an olefinic bond, then causing the decline of rate constants. The quantum chemical calculation was used to explain the results of rate constants. The products of ozonolysis were mainly aldehydes, which have significant influence on the formation of SOA, and hence play an important role in the atmosphere. In this work, we detected the main products of reaction and proposed the reaction mechanism by combining the results of quantum chemical calculations. Atmospheric lifetime for three unsaturated ketones reacted with ozone was 36.4, 11.4 and 6.9 hr for 1-octen-3-one, 3-octen-2-one and 4-hexen-3-one, respectively. 相似文献
Globally, gastric cancer (GC) ranks fifth in prevalence and third in fatalities, and shows a distinct geographical distribution in morbidity and mortality. Such a spatial pattern indicates that environmental factors could be an important contributor to GC. We reviewed a total of 135 relevant peer-reviewed articles and other literature published 1936–2019 to investigate the scientific evidence concerning the effects of environmental factors on GC worldwide. Environmental factors affect GC from the aspects of water, soil, air, radiation, and geology. Risk factors identified include water type, water pollution, water hardness, soil type, soil pollution, soil element content, climate change, air pollution, radiation, altitude, latitude, topography, and lithology; and most of them have an adverse impact on GC. Furthermore, we found that their effects followed five common rules: (1) the leading environmental factors that affect GC incidence and mortality vary by region, (2) the same environmental factors may have different effects on GC in different regions, (3) some different environmental factors have similar effects on GC in essence, (4) different environmental factors often interact to have combined or synergistic effects on GC, and (5) environmental factors can affect human factors to have an impact on GC. Environmental factors have a great impact on GC. Human beings may prevent GC by controlling carcinogenic factors, screening high-risk populations and providing symptomatic and rehabilitative treatments. Furthermore, adaptation measures are recommended to reduce GC risk on private and public levels. Future studies should transcend existing empirical studies to develop causal relationship models and focus on vulnerable population analysis. 相似文献