基于SCS水文模型的泥石流预报模型在四川宝兴冷木沟的应用

2013年4月20日四川芦山7.0级地震后,四川省宝兴县冷木沟沟道内新增大量崩塌、滑坡物源,在强降雨的诱发下,极易发生泥石流灾害,且沟口直面县城,直接威胁着整个县城的生命、财产安全。利用SCS水文模型,根据冷木沟流域的地貌特征将其划分成17个子流域,在子流域不同的土地利用数据及水文土壤条件下进行产流、汇流计算,最后通过叠加得到冷木沟流域出口断面的汇流过程;对2012年8月18日发生的泥石流汇流过程进行探讨预测,结果显示,本次泥石流的洪峰流量为278m³/s,泥石流总量为20.2×104m³,计算得到的泥石流总量与实际调查结果的相对误差为7.8%;用同一方法预测2013年5月23日冷木沟支沟黑沟的泥石流汇流过程,计算的洪峰流量为38.2 m³/s,与实际监测值的相对误差为4.2%。说明此模型对于冷木沟流域具有适用性,且效果较好,可用于宝兴县冷木沟泥石流的流量预测及泥石流灾害规模预测,将对宝兴县的泥石流防灾减灾工作提供科学指导。     

用于磷吸附的载铁(β-FeOOH)沸石制备及特性简

以天然沸石为载体,采用FeCl₃水解法制备用于磷吸附的载铁沸石（β-FeOOH-Z）,优化β-FeOOH-Z的制备条件,包括FeCl₃溶液浓度、负载pH值、负载时间、负载温度和烘干温度,并利用X射线衍射（XRD）和傅里叶变换红外光谱（FTIR）对β-FeOOH-Z及其磷吸附特性进行分析。结果表明,β-FeOOH-Z的优化制备条件为：FeCl₃溶液浓度1 mol/L、负载pH值6、负载时间24 h、负载温度25℃和烘干温度60℃。优化制备条件下,100~120目沸石的载铁量为100.2 mg/g,铁的负载率为18%,其磷吸附量为7.68 mg/g,比天然沸石提高79.6%。XRD分析结果表明,β-FeOOH-Z中的杂质元素较天然沸石减少,并有效负载β-FeOOH;制备条件对β-FeOOH-Z的成分有较大影响,FeCl₃溶液浓度较低、负载温度和烘干温度过高均使β-FeOOH-Z中含有α-Fe₂O₃,并导致其磷吸附效率降低。FTIR分析结果表明,β-FeOOH-Z的表面羟基在其吸附磷过程中起重要作用,羟基与磷酸根离子的配位交换是β-FeOOH-Z吸附磷的主要作用机制。     

Prediction models of CO, SPM and SO2 concentrations in the Campo de Gibraltar Region, Spain: a multiple comparison strategy

The 'Campo de Gibraltar' region is a very industrialized area where very few air pollution studies have been carried out. Up to date, no model has been developed in order to predict air pollutant levels in the different towns spread in the region. Carbon monoxide (CO), Sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) and suspended particulate matter (SPM) series have been investigated (years 1999-2000-2001). Multilayer perceptron models (MLPs) with backpropagation learning rule have been used. A resampling strategy with two-fold crossvalidation allowed the statistical comparison of the different models considered in this study. Artificial neural networks (ANN) models were compared with Persistence and ARIMA models and also with models based on standard Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) over test sets with data that had not been used in the training stage. The models based on ANNs showed better capability of generalization than those based on MLR. The designed procedure of random resampling permits an adequate and robust multiple comparison of the tested models. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimensionality of data and to transform exogenous variables into significant and independent components. Short-term predictions were better than medium-term predictions in the case of CO and SO(2) series. Conversely, medium-term predictions were better in the case of SPM concentrations. The predictions are significantly promising (e.g., d (SPM 24-ahead) = 0.906, d (CO 1-ahead) = 0.891, d (SO2 1-ahead) = 0.851).     

NDVI indicated characteristics of vegetation cover change in China��s metropolises over the last three decades

How urban vegetation was influenced by three decades of intensive urbanization in China is of great interest but rarely studied. In this paper, we used satellite derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and socioeconomic data to evaluate effects of urbanization on vegetation cover in China??s 117 metropolises over the last three decades. Our results suggest that current urbanization has caused deterioration of urban vegetation across most cities in China, particularly in East China. At the national scale, average urban area NDVI (NDVI_u) significantly decreased during the last three decades (P?<?0.01), and two distinct periods with different trends can be identified, 1982?C1990 and 1990?C2006. NDVI_u did not show statistically significant trend before 1990 but decrease remarkably after 1990 (P?<?0.01). Different regions also showed difference in the timing of NDVI_u turning point. The year when NDVI_u started to decline significantly for Central China and East China was 1987 and 1990, respectively, while NDVI_u in West China remained relatively constant until 1998. NDVI_u changes in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, two regions which has been undergoing the most rapid urbanization in China, also show different characteristics. The Pearl River Delta experienced a rapid decline in NDVI_u from the early 1980s to the mid-1990s; while in the Yangtze River Delta, NDVI_u did not decline significantly until the early 1990s. Such different patterns of NDVI_u changes are closely linked with policy-oriented difference in urbanization dynamics of these regions, which highlights the importance of implementing a sustainable urban development policy.     

Differences in the Spatial Distribution and Chemical Composition of PM10 Between the UK and Poland

The Fine Resolution Atmospheric Multi-pollutant Exchange Model was used to calculate the spatial distribution and chemical composition of PM₁₀ concentrations for two geographically remote countries in Europe—the UK and Poland—for the year 2007. These countries are diverse in terms of pollutant emissions as well as climate conditions. Information on the contribution of natural and anthropogenic as well as national and imported particles in total PM₁₀ concentrations in both countries is presented. The paper shows that the modelled national annual average PM₁₀ concentrations, calculated for the entire country area, are similar for the UK and Poland and close to 12 μg m^?3. Secondary inorganic aerosols dominate the total PM₁₀ concentrations in Poland. Primary particulate matter has the greatest contribution to total PM₁₀ in the UK, with large contribution of base cations. Anthropogenic sources predominate (81 %) in total PM₁₀ concentrations in Poland, whereas natural prevail in the UK—hence, the future reduction of PM₁₀ air concentrations by emissions reduction could be more difficult in the UK than in Poland.     

Using hyper-spectral indices to detect soil phosphorus concentration for various land use patterns

This study provides earthworm population data obtained from localities with a substantial anthropogenic impact spoils. The spoil heaps were reclaimed at the end of an opencast brown coal mining period. We studied spoils reclaimed by the two most commonly used reclamation processes: forestry and agricultural. The results show the significance of the locality age and the utilized reclamation process and treatment and their effect on earthworm communities. Our data indicate that apart from soil physical and chemical properties, the reclamation process itself may also induce viability and distribution of earthworm communities. Under standardized soil properties, the changes in earthworm populations during the succession were larger within the agricultural reclamation process as opposed to the forestry reclamation process for earthworm ecological groups and individual species.     

Ecological risk assessment of open coal mine area

The coal mine areas in China have the serious conflicts between resources exploitation and ecology safety, therefore the coal mine ecological risk assessment is an important problem which relates to the sustainability of coal mines to regions and the whole country. In this study, open coal mine area serves as researching object, heavy metals, soil erosion and coast are screened out as risk resources, soil wireworm as the receiver of heavy metals risk, biotope ecosystem as the receiver of soil erosion and coast risk; ecological indexes are calculated with species background index, biological diversity index and natural degree index, ecological friability indexes are calculated with soil fertility index, plant coverage, plant species diversity index, soil wireworm index and maturity index, and the typical coal mine area assessment indexes system is established. In addition, the regional ecological risk assessment is conducted on the friable ecological system of Fuxin Haizhou open coal mine area. Examples are researched of Haizhou open coal mine, the coal mine risk distribution is established, and foundations are provided for the administrative decision-making.     

秦皇岛市空气质量现状及预测

依据秦皇岛市５年的空气监测资料，对该市环境空气质量的现状进行了分析，并采用不同方法对该市空气环境污染物进行了预测     

乌鲁木齐市水上乐园沉积物中重金属污染调查

分析测定了水上乐园库底沉积物表层（煤灰层）、中层（粉土层）、底层（风化层）中Ｐｂ、Ｃｕ、Ｃｄ、Ｚｎ、Ｈｇ、Ａｓ６种元素含量，并对水上乐园沉积物中重金属污染状况进行评价。