污染防治设施社会化运营模式及其对区域环境与经济协调发展的影响

针对城市化进程加快引发的一系列环境污染问题,指出了加快污染防治设施社会化运营的必要性,并从污染治理设施的种类、污染治理设施的社会化运营分析和运作模式三方面论述了如何进行污染治理设施的社会化运营,从经济发展、污染防治设施运行、引入竞争机制等方面概述了污染防治设施社会化运营对区域环境与经济协调发展的影响。     

Estimating the variance in before-after studies

Problem

To simplify the computation of the variance in before-after studies, it is generally assumed that the observed crash data for each entity (or observation) are Poisson distributed. Given the characteristics of this distribution, the observed value (x_i) for each entity is implicitly made equal to its variance. However, the variance should be estimated using the conditional properties of this observed value (defined as a random variable), that is, f(x_i|μ_i), since the mean of the observed value is in fact unknown.

Method

Parametric and non-parametric bootstrap methods were investigated to evaluate the conditional assumption using simulated and observed data.

Results

The results of this study show that observed data should not be used as a substitute for the variance, even if the entities are assumed to be Poisson distributed. Consequently, the estimated variance for the parameters under study in traditional before-after studies is likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

The proposed methods offer more accurate approaches for estimating the variance in before-after studies.     

人本理念与公共安全

事故发生后,有效的补救可以减轻伤害,然而一个基本的事实是,任何事后的弥补措施,都将无法挽回那些在灾难中失去的可贵生命。我们不得不重新思考预防为主的原则,因为唯有如此,才能够通过各种有效的措旋,尽可能在事前避免事故发生或减轻事故危害程度。然而,如何才能达到有效的预防？对预防而言,什么才是深层次的决定因素？     

城市火灾的马尔可夫链预测方法

对1951-2004年间城市火灾起火数据进行分析,可以看出城市火灾发生率具有马尔可夫性.用马尔可夫链预测方法对2005年城市火灾发生率进行了预测,得到预测值与实际值完全吻合.用1991-2004年间城市火灾发生的实际数据对该方法进行了检验,说明该方法的可行性.预测结果表明,马尔可夫链预测方法用于城市火灾发生率及其分级的预测是一种切实可行的方法.     

Future of global governance and climate change action in a changing political landscape

<正>1.Editor's note On 30 November 2016,the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy(BTC),Caixin Video,and Columbia Global Centers(Beijing)jointly hosted a Seminar on the Future of Global Governance and Climate Change Action in a Changing Political Landscape.Leading experts on China's environmental policy and climate     

3种典型微生物农药对家蚕的毒性研究

苏云金芽孢杆菌、球孢白僵菌以及棉铃虫核型多角体病毒是细菌类、真菌类和病毒类微生物农药的典型代表。为了明确微生物农药对家蚕的毒性影响,选取以上3种典型微生物农药,分别探究其对家蚕的毒性。结果显示:苏云金杆菌原药对家蚕LC50值为1.33×105CFU·m L-1;球孢白僵菌原药对家蚕LC50值为1.14×106CFU·m L-1;棉铃虫核型多角体病毒母药对家蚕LC50值大于1.00×108PIB·m L-1。与此同时,通过进一步试验,明确了以上3种微生物农药对家蚕结茧率、死笼率、全茧量、茧层量等关键指标的影响。结果显示:除了棉铃虫核型多角体病毒母药,高浓度苏云金杆菌原药、球孢白僵菌原药对家蚕的结茧率和死笼率均具有显著影响;3种微生物农药对家蚕产茧能力指标全茧量、茧层量以及蛹重均无显著性影响。     

Effect of copper(II) on biodegradation of benzo[a]pyrene by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia

Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) biodegradation by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia was studied under the influence of co-existed Cu(II) ions. About 45% degradation was achieved within 3 d when dealing with 1 mg L^?1 BaP under initial natural pH at 30 °C; degradation reached 48% in 2 d at 35 °C. Efficacy of BaP biodegradation reached the highest point at pH 4. In the presence of 10 mg L^?1 Cu(II) ions, the BaP removal ratio was 45% on 7th day, and maintained stable from 7 to 14 d at 30 °C under natural pH. The favorable temperature and pH for BaP removal was 25 °C and 6.0 respectively, when Cu(II) ions coexisted in the solutions. Experiments on cometabolism indicated that S. maltophilia performed best when sucrose was used as an additional carbon source. GC–MS analysis revealed that the five rings of BaP opened, producing compounds with one or two rings which were more bioavailable.     

Acute and chronic toxicity of organophosphate monocrotophos to Daphnia magna

The acute and chronic toxicity of monocrotophos (MCP), the binary joint toxicity of MCP and bifenthrin (BF), and sodium dodecyl benzene sulfonate (SDBS) to Daphnia magna (D. magna) was evaluated. The 24 h-median effective concentration (24 h-EC₅₀) and 48 h-median lethal concentration (48 h-LC₅₀) of MCP towards D. magna were 161 and 388 μ g/L, respectively. In addition, the lowest-observed effective concentration (LOEC) and non-observed effective concentration (NOEC) of MCP to D. magna were 10 and 5 μ g/L, respectively. Furthermore, the chronic value (ChV) of MCP against D. magna was 7 μ g/L and the acute chronic ratio (ACR) was 55. The number of offspring per female and the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) were identified as the parameters that were most sensitive to MCP. In addition, toxic unit (TU) analysis was employed to evaluate the joint toxicities. The calculated TU_mix values of binary equitoxic mixtures of MCP + BF and MCP + SDBS were 1.47 and 1.63, respectively, which suggests that both equitoxic mixtures exert a limited antagonistic effect. The results of this study revealed that the toxic threshold of MCP towards D. magna is higher than its reported highest residue (4 μ g/L) in the ordinary aquatic environment, and that concurrent exposure to BF or SDBS may exert a slight antagonistic effect.     

高速公路路面沉积物的污染特性

对湖南省长潭西高速公路不同采样点的路面沉积物进行取样分析,并检测了样品的颗粒级配、COD、重金属(Cu、Zn、Pb和Cd)和有机质。结果表明,路面沉积物主要以粒径<0.15 mm的颗粒为主;较小颗粒物中的COD含量高于较大颗粒中的COD含量;粒径在0.15 mm以下的颗粒物所含重金属Cu、Zn、Pb和Cd的浓度普遍高于所选的土壤标准值,降雨一旦形成径流将会产生严重的污染危害;沉积物中的有机质含量对重金属的吸附有一定的影响,有机质含量越高,沉积物中重金属含量相对也高。     

响应面法优化聚丙烯酸/腐殖酸/累托石吸附剂的制备条件

以累托石、丙烯酸及腐殖酸为原料制备出能同时吸附重金属和多环芳烃的吸附剂聚丙烯酸/腐殖酸/累托石,采用响应面试验设计法优化吸附剂的制备条件。利用Design Expert软件,建立了预测吸附剂对Cd2+、菲吸附量的二次回归模型,对回归模型进行了方差分析,并确定了吸附剂的最佳制备条件。结果表明,二次回归模型能较好地模拟Cd2+、菲的吸附量与影响因子丙烯酸中和度、引发剂量和交联剂量之间的关系。各因子对Cd2+吸附量的影响次序为:交联剂量>引发剂量>丙烯酸中和度;对菲吸附量的影响次序为引发剂量>交联剂量>丙烯酸中和度。吸附剂的最佳制备条件为:累托石、丙烯酸和腐殖酸三者的质量比为65∶30∶5,丙烯酸中和度、引发剂量和交联剂量分别为75.16%、2.57%和0.44%。在此优化条件下制备的吸附剂对Cd2+和菲的吸附量分别为170.19 mg/g和7.36 mg/g。