基于有序Logit与Probit模型的交通事故严重性影响因素分析

为准确分析影响交通事故严重性的各项因素,引入有序选择模型中的Ordinal Logit模型和Ordinal Probit模型,研究驾驶员、车辆、环境、管理因素与事故严重程度之间的耦合关系,利用计量经济学理论和统计学方法对模型进行显著性检验。并选择美国北卡罗来纳州2010年至2014年385个翻车事故样本进行严重性影响因素分析,所得回归模型参数估计均符合Wald检验(p≤0.0001)和似然比检验(p≤0.0001),模型的拟合度也都符合Pearson检验(p=0.7976)、偏差检验(p=0.6006)和信息准则检验,模型预测精度指标值均大于0.7。所得两个模型中变量"安全带"(p≤0.001)、"路面状况"(p=0.0071)、"道路线形"(p=0.0077)、"路面类型"(p=0.0251)都对翻车事故的严重性具有显著影响,表明有序Logit模型和有序Probit模型均适用于分析和揭示影响交通事故严重性的各个因素。     

稀有鮈鲫作为水生模式生物的研究及探讨

我国本土水生生物稀有鮈鲫(Gobiocypris rarus Ye et Fu,1983年)是一种优良的试验用鱼,具备成为模式生物必要条件。本文总结了稀有鮈鲫生物生态学研究情况,分析了稀有鮈鲫在多个应用领域与模式生物斑马鱼、青鳉存在的不足和差距,同时借鉴发达国家推动模式生物的实践经验,提出了针对性建议。     

环境污染物导致氧化应激的关键信号通路及其检测方法

环境污染物能够以多种途径进入生物体内,在体内产生含氧自由基等活性氧物质,并通过多种信号通路及酶反应引起氧化应激,造成生物体内的脂质过氧化、蛋白质损伤、DNA表达改变、酶失活等,从而引发心血管疾病、风湿类疾病、感染及癌症等的发生。本文对环境污染物致氧化应激产生的原因、涉及的信号通路及酶反应、造成的危害,以及常见的基于细胞模型的氧化应激检测方法进行了综述,期望为评价环境污染物和检测氧化损伤提供参考。     

农药环境风险评估中常用的计算毒理学模型软件

农药的大量使用为我国带来了严重的环境和健康问题,仅依靠传统生物测试和环境监测的方法已经不能满足农药风险评估的需要。利用计算毒理学模型,可以实现农药的高通量风险评估。本文主要介绍了农药环境风险评估中常用免费的EPI Suite、QSAR Toolbox和PBT Profiler等定量结构-活性关系(Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship,QSAR)模型软件和SCIGROW、PRZM-GW、China-PEARL和EQC等环境多介质模型软件,以期能为农药的风险评估和科学管理提供参考。     

Chemical additives affect sulfate reducing bacteria biofilm properties adsorbed on stainless steel 316L surface in circulating cooling water system

This paper studied the biofilm properties and corrosion behavior of sulfate reducing bacteria (SRB) on stainless steel 316L (SS316L) surface in circulating cooling water system with and without additives including hydroxy ethyl fork phosphonic acid (HEDP), dodecyl dimethyl benzyl ammonium chlotide (1227) and NaClO. Biochemical technique, electrochemical technology, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) and scanning electron microscope (SEM) were used. The results show that the extracellular polymeric substance (EPS) in biofilm attached on the SS316L surface mainly contain proteins and polysaccharides, the contents are 98 ug·cm^-2 and 635ug·cm^-2, respectively. The polysaccharides were cut by 1227 about 80%, while 55% by NaClO. The proteins were reduced by NaClO about 53%, while only 30% by 1227. The potentiodynamic polarization shows that the corrosion potential of SS316L was enhanced from -0.495 V to -0.390 V by the chemical additives, delaying the occurrence of the corrosion. And the corrosion rate was also reduced from 5.19 × 10^-3 mm·a^-1 to 2.42 × 10^-3 mm·a^-1. But NaClO still caused pitting corrosion after sterilizing the bacteria, while 1227 can form a protective film on the surface of SS316L. Though HEDP contribute to the bacteria activity, it can enhance the breakdown potential. XPS results confirmed that 1227 can change the value of C:O in the biofilm attached on metal surface, and NaClO can eliminate the existence of amidogen. This study would provide some recommendations for the selection of chemical additives in the thermal power plant.

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Sustainable forest management in a mountain region in the Central Western Carpathians,northeastern Slovakia: the role of climate change

European forestry is facing many challenges, including the need to adapt to climate change and an unprecedented increase in forest damage. We investigated these challenges in a Norway spruce-dominated mountain region in Central Europe. We used the model Sibyla to explore forest biomass production to the year 2100 under climate change and under two alternative management systems: the currently applied management (CM), which strives to actively improve the forest’s adaptive capacity, and no management (NM) as a reference. Because biodiversity is thought to have mostly positive effects on the adaptive capacity of forests and on the quality of ecosystem services, we explored how climate change and management affect indicators of biodiversity. We found a differential response across the elevation-climatic gradient, including a drought-induced decrease in biomass production over large areas. With CM, the support of non-spruce species and the projected improvement of their growth increased tree species diversity. The promotion of species with higher survival rates led to a decrease in forest damage relative to both the present conditions and NM. NM preserved the high density of over-matured spruce trees, which caused forest damage to increase. An abundance of dead wood and large standing trees, which can increase biodiversity, increased with NM. Our results suggest that commercial spruce forests, which are not actively adapted to climate change, tend to preserve their monospecific composition at a cost of increased forest damage. The persisting high rates of damage along with the adverse effects of climate change make the prospects of such forests uncertain.     

Future of global governance and climate change action in a changing political landscape

<正>1.Editor's note On 30 November 2016,the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy(BTC),Caixin Video,and Columbia Global Centers(Beijing)jointly hosted a Seminar on the Future of Global Governance and Climate Change Action in a Changing Political Landscape.Leading experts on China's environmental policy and climate     

基于白碳黑的水化硅酸钙制备及其磷回收特性简

以白碳黑、硅灰、硅藻土和硅胶筛选硅质原料,并与钙质原料电石渣制备了水化硅酸钙。借助XRF、BET、FTIR等表征手段,通过多次重复除磷实验,研究了硅质原料特性对水化硅酸钙回收磷性能的影响。结果表明,白碳黑具有极高的反应活性,因此可作为制备具有磷回收特性的水化硅酸钙的硅质原料。结合XRD等表征发现,白碳黑的有效利用率是影响水化硅酸钙回收磷性能的关键,该利用率取决于白碳黑与电石渣的摩尔配比以及水热反应温度。当电石渣与白碳黑的摩尔比为1.6：1,反应温度为170℃时,白碳黑具有最佳的利用效率。该条件制备的水化硅酸钙可作为晶种,在其表面结晶形成羟基磷灰石,从而达到磷回收的目的,磷回收后固体物质中的磷含量为19.05%。     

CuO / 过硫酸氢钾体系催化氧化苯酚简

本论文通过直接沉淀法制备了CuO催化剂,结合过硫酸氢钾,在常温常压下催化氧化处理苯酚模拟废水。采用电子显微镜（SEM）、X射线粉末衍射（XRD）对催化剂进行了表征,并研究了反应过程中各影响因素对降解效率的影响。实验结果表明,在催化剂用量为0.2 g/L,氧化剂浓度为0.25 g/L,pH值为7,反应时间为60 min的条件下,浓度为50 mg/L的苯酚降解率可达100%,TOC去除率达84%。进一步实验表明,催化剂具有良好的重复使用能力。最后,通过自由基捕捉实验,考察了体系中的自由基种类,并根据实验结果,讨论了CuO/过硫酸氢钾体系的催化降解机理。     

Forest Die-Back Modified Plankton Recovery from Acidic Stress

We examined long-term data on water chemistry of Lake Rachelsee (Germany) following the changes in acidic depositions in central Europe since 1980s. Despite gradual chemical recovery of Rachelsee, its biological recovery was delayed. In 1999, lake recovery was abruptly reversed by a coincident forest die-back, which resulted in elevated terrestrial export of nitrate and ionic aluminum lasting ~5 years. This re-acidification episode provided unique opportunity to study plankton recovery in the rapidly recovering lake water after the abrupt decline in nitrate leaching from the catchment. There were sudden changes both in lake water chemistry and in plankton biomass structure, such as decreased bacterial filaments, increased phytoplankton biomass, and rotifer abundance. The shift from dominance of heterotrophic to autotrophic organisms suggested their substantial release from severe phosphorus stress. Such a rapid change in plankton structure in a lake recovering from acidity has, to the best of our knowledge, not been previously documented.