RISK OF EXTREME EVENTS IN A MULTIOBJECTIVE FRAMEWORK1

ABSTRACT: This paper summarizes advances made in risk-based decisionmaking in water resources through use of the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM). (Risk is a measure of the probability and severity of adverse effects.) In the PMRM, the risk of extreme events is differentiated from risk involving less extreme damage severity and is evaluated within a multiobjective framework. Study of the extreme-event risk function f₄(*) has addressed the following issues: methods for calculating f₄(*); the sensitivity of f₄(*) to various parameters, particularly to the partitioning point of the extreme-event range and the selection of probability density functions; insight provided by the statistics of extremes; and the impact of f₄(*) on risk management, for example, in the application of the PMRM to water resources problems. In particular, this paper shares with the reader recent research results on the PMRM, the relationship between the statistics of extremes and the conditional expected value, derived formulas for f₄(*), distribution-free estimates of f₄(*), documented case studies in dam safety, and future research directions.     

Roadside dusts and soils contamination in Cincinnati,Ohio, USA

Roadside dusts and soils were collected from various nonindustrial districts in Cincinnati, Ohio, USA, and analyzed for lead and copper contents. Results showed that the recent lead phase-down action has reduced the level of lead, but the concentrations of both metals are still higher than the background levels for normal soil. Elevated concentrations of copper in heavily traveled highways were noted, suggesting that much of the copper pollutants is probably of automotive origin. The concentration of lead was found to vary with housing age, and higher levels of contamination in the older neighborhoods were observed. This result is probably ascribable to the accumulation of residues from leaded gasoline and lead-based paint in the past and the use of coal fire for space heating in older houses.     

Sequential Determination of Trace Metals in Sea Water by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry After Electrothermal Vaporization of their Dithiocarmabamate Complexes in Methyl Isobutyl Ketone

A sensitive method for sequential determination of V, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Mo and Sb in sea water using an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) after electrothermal vaporization of their dithiocarbamate complexes in methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) has been investigated. All analyte elements were simultaneously concentrated 20 fold in a single extract and introduced into the plasma using a graphite rod electrothermal vaporizer (ETV). A sensitivity enhancement due to a chemical modification using a mixed modifier of palladium nitrate and magnesium nitrate was observed for all analyte elements. The limits of detection of the method ranged from 2 ng l-1 for Co to 329 ng l-1 for V. For the replicate determinations of the analyte elements in a sea water sample, the repeatability was within 10% (as a coefficient variation), except for V (12.8%). The recovery test performed on a sea water sample resulted in values ranging from 87% for Sb to 119% for V. With the exception of Mo, the application of this method for the determination of the analyte elements in sea water samples collected from the surface to the depth of 5000 m at the sampling station of 34°12.08N, 141°57.50E (Oct. 12, 1994) in the northwest Pacific Ocean resulted in vertical distributions and concentration ranges which were in a good agreement with those reported in literatures.     

Past changes in the abundance of diatoms as inferred from a sediment core from Hebe Haven, Saikung, Hong Kong

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