有色金属国际价格波动的影响因素研究

有色金属作为国际上流通量较大的大宗产品,近年来其价格的频繁剧烈波动受到学界和业界的高度关注。从有色金属国际贸易的交易量数据看,中国、美国、巴西等20个国家是有色金属国际贸易的主体,贸易量较大的是铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属。本文选取了国际贸易中铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属的主要进口国和出口国,在已有研究的基础上,从供需、实体经济和货币金融三个维度选取变量,运用国家之间构成的面板数据,建立PVAR模型,分析四种有色金属价格的波动及其影响因素;通过铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格的脉冲响应函数,比较分析铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格波动影响因素的不同。研究发现:(1)铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属价格波动均受国内生产总值和货币供应量的影响,供需因素对有色金属价格产生长期的影响,货币供给量对有色金属价格的影响短暂而剧烈;(2)国内生产总值和贸易量与铜价的波动密切相关,货币供应量和消费者价格指数与铝、铅、锌价格的波动密切相关;(3)有色金属主要贸易国的各个变量对铜、铝、铅、锌价格波动的贡献程度不同。铜贸易国的贸易量对铜价波动的贡献度要高于其他有色金属贸易国家;铝、铅、锌贸易国家的金融因素对铝、铅、锌价格的影响要强于铜贸易国家。最后,本文从进口国角度对中国有色金属进口提出了建议:中国是铜、铝、铅、锌四种有色金属的最大进口国,应密切关注有色金属价格走势,建立健全有色金属价格的实时监测和预警机制,加快对有色金属价格波动的反应速度,利用金融手段避险趋利。     

Optimization of thermal performance of the parabolic trough solar collector systems based on GA-BP neural network model

The aim of this paper is to optimize the thermal performance (system output energy, thermal efficiency, and heat loss of cavity absorber) of parabolic trough solar collector (PTC) systems in order to improve its thermal performance, based on the genetic algorithm-back propagation (GA-BP) neural network model. There are a number of undefined problems, fuzzy or incomplete information and a complex thermal performance of the PTC systems. Therefore, the thermal performance prediction of the PTC systems based on GA-BP neural network model was developed. Subsequently, the metrics performances have been adopted to comprehensively understand the algorithm and evaluate the prediction accuracy. Results revealed that the GA-BP neural network model can be successfully used to predict the complex nonlinear relationship between the input variables and thermal performance of the PTC systems. The cosine effect has a great influence on the thermal performance; thereby the geometrical structure of the PTC systems was optimized. It was found that the optimized geometrical structure was beneficial to improve the thermal performance of the PTC system. In conclusion, the GA-BP neural network model has higher prediction accuracy than the other algorithm and it can be feasible and reliable.     

Triple-objective optimal sizing based on dynamic strategy for an islanded hybrid energy microgrid

A triple-objective optimal sizing method based on a dynamic strategy is presented for an islanded hybrid energy microgrid, consisting of wind turbine, solar photovoltaic, battery energy storage system and diesel generator. The dynamic strategy is given based on a dynamic complementary coordination between two different master-slave control modes for maximum renewable energy utilization. Combined with the proposed strategy, NSGA-II-based optimization program is applied to the sizing optimization problem with triple different objectives including the minimization of annualized system cost, the minimization of loss of power supply probability and the maximization of utilization ratio of renewable energy generation. The sizing results and the proposed strategy are both compared and analyzed to validate the proposed method in a real case of an islanded hybrid energy microgrid on Dong’ao Island, China.     

辛硫磷和敌百虫协同抑制斑马鱼乙酰胆碱酯酶(AChE)活性

以辛硫磷和敌百虫为供试毒物,研究其对斑马鱼的单一和联合毒性效应。结果显示,辛硫磷和敌百虫对斑马鱼的96 h半致死浓度(96 h-LC_(50))值分别为6.482 mg·L~(-1)和27.877 mg·L~(-1);按照农药毒性分级标准,辛硫磷对斑马鱼是高毒,敌百虫对斑马鱼是中毒。在辛硫磷和敌百虫联合急性毒性实验中,24、48、72和96 h的相加指数均大于0,表明辛硫磷和敌百虫对斑马鱼的联合毒性为协同效应。采用生化法测定乙酰胆碱酯酶活性发现,乙酰胆碱酯酶活性与辛硫磷、敌百虫以及辛硫磷+敌百虫之间有显著的剂量-效应关系,而且联合作用毒性均大于单一作用毒性。     

Health risk assessment of an abandoned herbicide factory site for transportation use in Dalian,China

An abandoned herbicide factory site was used as an example of how planning should be considered for development of the site for transportation use in Dalian, China. Exposure pathways and parameters for three types of transportation use (land for a traffic hub, land for an urban road, and land for a subway) were developed. Twenty-five sampling sites were selected and 38 soil samples were collected in March 2015. Hexachlorobenzene and benzo(a)pyrene which were extracted by Soxhlet extraction and detected by gas chromatography mass spectrometry were the most significant pollutants detected. The maximum concentration of the two pollutants in the surface layer (0–0.5 m) were 0.57 and 3.10 mg/kg, and in the bottom layer (1.0 m) were 2.57 and 3.72 mg/kg, respectively. In this study, risk assessment results based on the established exposure scenario and parameters showed that there was a significant difference in traffic hub land use under specific exposure pathway and common insensitive land use exposure pathways (direct ingestion of soil, dermal contact with soil, and inhalation of soil-derived dust). Commonly considered hexachlorobenzene and benzo(a)pyrene carcinogenic risk values exceeded the maximum acceptable level (10⁻⁶) and were found to be 23.9-fold and 189-fold higher than the carcinogenic risk values, respectively. Parameter sensitivity analysis data showed that for transportation use, the two parameters “EFOa” and “OSIRa” were the most significant factors associated with variation of the carcinogenic risk value. For traffic hub land use, urban road land use, and subway land use, the main exposure pathways were through “inhalation of soil vapors outdoors (from surface soil),” “direct ingestion of soil,” and “inhalation of soil vapors indoors (from bottom soil),” which contributed 84.75, 73.00, and 100.00% to the total risk value, respectively.

     

Antibiotic resistance genes in an urban river as impacted by bacterial community and physicochemical parameters

Antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in urban rivers are a serious public health concern in regions with poorly planned, rapid development. To gain insights into the predominant factors affecting the fate of ARGs in a highly polluted urban river in eastern China, a total of 285 ARGs, microbial communities, and 20 physicochemical parameters were analyzed for 17 sites. A total of 258 unique ARGs were detected using high-throughput qPCR, and the absolute abundance of total ARGs was positively correlated with total organic carbon and total dissolved nitrogen concentrations (P < 0.01). ARG abundance and diversity were greatly altered by microbial community structure. Variation partitioning analysis showed that the combined effects of multiple factors contributed to the profile and dissemination of ARGs, and variation of microbial communities was the major factor affecting the distribution of ARGs. The disparate distribution of some bacteria, including Bacteroides from mammalian gastrointestinal flora, Burkholderia from zoonotic infectious diseases, and Zoogloea from wastewater treatment, indicates that the urban river was strongly influenced by point-source pollution. Results imply that microbial community shifts caused by changes in water quality may lead to the spread of ARGs, and point-source pollution in urban rivers requires greater attention to control the transfer of ARGs between environmental bacteria and pathogens.

     

Life Cycle Assessment of Ultra-clean Micronized Coal Oil Water Slurry

Life cycle assessment is applied to assess the ultraclean micronized coal oil water slurry （UCMCOWS） with SimaPro and the environmental impact of UCMCOWS on its whole life cycle is also analyzed. The result shows that the consumption of energy and products are increasing along with the deepening of UCMCOWS processing, UCMCOWS making and combustion are the two periods which have a bigger impact on eco-system and human health. As a new substitute of fuel, UCMCOWS merits to be utilized more efficiently and reasonably.     

超声波处理剩余污泥有机物、氮和磷的释放特性研究

以生活污水处理厂污泥为研究对象.采用超声波技术研究了污泥破解过程中有机物、氮和磷的释放规律.结果表明,在声能密度为0.167、0.330、0.500 W/mL的条件下,污泥中的有机物、氮和磷的释放均随超声时间而增加;破解后污泥释放出的有机物以分子量(MW)≤2 000的物质为主,且上清液BOD5/COD>0.33;所释放的氮以有机氮为主,其次是氨氮,污泥破解液COD/凯氏氮平均值为11,适合于生物法脱氮;污泥破解所释放的正磷酸盐约占污泥总磷质量的6.0%～18.2%.利用沉淀结晶法将其回收,可减轻原污水处理工艺的磷负荷.     

咪唑类[PF6]^-型离子液体萃取胺类化合物

以眯唑类[PF6]^-型离子液体1-丁基-3-甲基咪唑六氟磷酸盐（[Bmim][PF6]）、1-己基-3-甲基咪唑六氟磷酸盐（[Hmim][PF6]）和1-辛基-3-甲基咪唑六氟磷酸盐（[Omim][PF6]）对苯胺、对氯苯胺等7种胺类化合物的萃取,考察了溶液初始浓度、相比、盐类、pH及离子液体眯唑基团上取代烷基对萃取平衡的影响,并研究了萃取过程的热效应。实验结果表明：溶液初始浓度对分配系数影响较小;相比10：1是离子液体对胺类化合物的溶解饱和临界点,当相比大于10：1时,分配系数降低;NaCl、K2SO4可以增大萃取分配系数,ZnSO4对分配系数几乎没有影响;pH增加,分配系数增大;离子液体对不同取代基的胺类萃取能力有较大的差异,咪唑基团上取代烷基的长度对不同胺类物质的分配系数影响较显著;萃取过程属于焓增大的吸热过程。     

垃圾渗滤液处理工艺中有机污染物的三维荧光光谱

利用荧光发射和三维荧光光谱研究了三峡库区某垃圾堆场的渗滤液及其处理工艺出水溶解性有机质(DOM)的荧光光谱特性。堆场渗滤液的DOM含有类酪氨酸、色氨酸及紫外区类富里酸,特征荧光峰中心位于E_x/E_m=275 nm/305 nm,为高激发波长类酪氨酸,与前人的研究结果并不一致,这可能与垃圾的堆放期有关。渗滤液和各处理工艺出水的荧光指数f_450/500均大于1.9,表明腐殖质主要为微生物源。渗滤液在处理前后荧光峰特征和强度均发生明显改变,类蛋白荧光强度与DOC值变化趋势基本一致。生化处理工艺中,类蛋白荧光强度降低了66.4%～95.5%,紫外区类富里酸荧光强度只降低了28.8%,显示类蛋白质具有良好的可生化性,而类富里酸相对较难生化降解。三维荧光光谱能反映渗滤液处理过程中污染物的种类、性质和数量等变化信息,能快速地进行定性分析、定量评价。