Demographic Forecasting in Koala Conservation

Abstract: The koala currently needs conservation intervention. There is clear evidence of decline in many populations, but the existence of other stable or expanding populations offers the possibility of a variety of creative solutions to their conservation problems. The 1998 National Koala Conservation Strategy emphasizes the need to obtain demographic information and to use this information to assess management options for koalas. We need accurate diagnoses of the status of koala populations and forecasts of their demographic future with and without particular management actions. In a qualitative fashion, this process has been undertaken many times on a local and national scale. Quantitative demographic forecasting tools are increasingly available, and koala management could benefit from their application both at the scale of individual populations and more broadly. There is already a considerable body of suitable data on the dispersal, effects of normal and catastrophic environmental variation on reproduction and survival, and on the effects of habitat change. Demographic forecasting, however, is hampered because the full suite of information is rarely available from a single population. In two Queensland populations, retrospective population viability analyses provided forecasts that were in agreement with observed population trends. Work is needed to determine whether data from one population can be applied to other populations. Models can then be developed to make projections at a multipopulation level on the basis of local population dynamics and dispersal. Certain koala populations, because of their long history of study, offer the opportunity to test demographic models retrospectively. These tests will not only aid in fine-tuning the models for koala biology and data but will also assist with the more general process of validating the models.     

Poisoned plusiines: toxicity of milkweed latex and cardenolides to some generalist caterpillars

Summary. Larvae of Trichoplusia ni Hübner (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) that ingested latex from Asclepias curassavica L. (Asclepiadaceae) often regurgitated and convulsed with spasms before becoming immobile and unresponsive. Some larvae required over a day to recover sufficiently to feed. Latices from four other plant species in three families were all deterrent, but none caused detectable poisoning. The toxicity of A. curassavica latex was evidently due to cardenolides because pure cardenolides had similar effects when ingested by T. ni. Other species of noctuid caterpillars (Rachiplusia ou Guenée, Anagrapha falcifera Kirby, and Autographa precationis Guenée) sometimes also suffered spasms and temporary immobility when fed A. curassavica latex. A more distantly related noctuid, Spodoptera ornithogalli, was deterred by the latex, but showed no overt physiological responses at the dosage tested. T. ni larvae failed to develop on intact leaves of A. curassavica, on leaves with latex canals deactivated by midrib severance, and on excised leaves. Similarly, larvae reared on excised A. syriaca L. leaves to the final instar died when transferred to A. curassavica leaves with either intact or severed midribs. The final instar larvae sometimes suffered from spasms and immobility even when confined on leaves with depressurized canal systems. Evidently, cardenolides stored outside the latex system suffice to poison larvae. We conclude that cardenolides in A. curassavica have potent physiological effects on some generalist caterpillars and that the presence of these compounds both inside and outside laticifers effectively protects the plant. Received 30 June 1999; accepted 18 October 1999     

隐伏断裂的地气测量及其意义

传统概念的地气测量是指地下上升到地表并扩散到大气空间的天然状态气体 ,如CO2 、CH4 、Rn、Hg、H2 等。近十多年的研究证实地气还包含着新的内涵 ,即地壳岩石以及地表土壤中还存着痕量的金属与非金属气体 ,通过捕集这些气体 ,可以获得更多的深部地质构造、矿床信息。据报导 ,国内外的研究主要是在已知矿床上做的正演研究。本文是在已知隐伏断层构造上方地表 ,试验金属与非金属地气存在的可能性。     

木质纤维素原料预处理技术研究近况

木质纤维素的结构导致其不易降解。通过酸处理、碱处理、液态高温水技术、爆破处理、湿式氧化、超临界CO2处理、生物降解等预处理手段,可使后续过程的效率大大提高。较为全面地对国内外木质纤维素原料预处理技术的研究近况做了总结,主要对国外学者的试验方法和现象分析进行了简要描述,并对萼合于我国的方法提出了自己的观点。     

絮凝法处理含水溶性膦配体TPPTS废水

以Al-Fe混凝荆、聚丙烯酰胺（PAM）、十六烷基三甲基溴化铵（CTAB）为助凝剂,考察了水溶性膦配体间磺酸钠基三苯基膦（TPPTS）废水中化学耗氧量（COD）的去除率,以此来间接考察TPPTS的去除效果。结果表明,助凝剂的添加能提高COD的去除率。获得了化学耗氧量COD 1000～1500mg／L废水除膦的优化条件：pH=5．5,Al-Fe、CTAB、PAM的投加量分别为300mg／L、67mg／L和21mg／L时,COD去除率达92．9％。     

基于维纳过程的MEMS陀螺仪贮存寿命评估

目的 针对MEMS陀螺仪在步进应力加速试验条件下获取的性能退化数据,提出基于维纳过程的贮存寿命评估方法及其模型准确度检验方法。方法 首先,确定温度为影响MEMS陀螺仪性能退化的主要环境因素,采用步进温度应力加速试验的方式获取其性能退化数据。其次,分析各项性能参数的演变规律,确定标度因数为表征产品性能退化的特征性能参数。最后,采用漂移维纳过程对标度因数退化轨迹进行建模,并外推得到常温条件下的贮存寿命。结果 采用留一法对模型精度进行验证,模型准确度最低为86.44%。可靠度水平为0.95时,常温贮存(25 ℃)条件下的寿命评估结果为50.02 a。结论 基于维纳过程建立的性能退化模型的准确度在85%以上,该模型可应用于指定贮存条件下MEMS陀螺仪的性能退化预测及贮存寿命评估。     

不同温湿度条件下微米硼的氧化过程研究

目的 探究不同温湿度条件下微米硼的氧化层结构特征。方法 利用高温水浴浸泡处理去除原料微米硼的表面氧化层,然后在恒温恒湿条件下对微米硼进行加速氧化,利用扫描电子显微镜、透射电子显微镜和X射线光电子能谱对加速氧化后硼颗粒的氧化层厚度及组成进行分析,总结表面氧化层结构及成分组成变化规律,揭示温湿度条件下微米硼的氧化机制。结果 微米硼经高温水浴浸泡处理后,表面氧化层去除率达到50%。随着加速氧化时间的延长,硼颗粒氧化层的厚度逐渐增大,由内向外硼颗粒表面可以用B-BxOy-B2O3三层结构来表示,BxOy总是伴随着B2O3同时出现的,且随着氧化反应的进行,颗粒表面BxOy的含量将超过B的含量。结论 不同温湿度条件下微米硼的氧化机制为O2向B颗粒内部单向扩散的反应机制,B先与O2反应,形成低氧化物BxOy,BxOy进而与O2反应生成B2O3。随着氧化层厚度的增加,O2向B颗粒内部扩散的阻力增大,氧化反应速率随之降低。相比湿度的影响,温度的升高可显著加快硼表面氧化层的形成;温度一定时,湿度的增加可促进硼氧化层的形成。     

工程塑料环境因素与载荷应力耦合作用试验装置研究

目的 设计一种能够模拟工程塑料实际服役工作环境的试验装置,在多型自然环境中,构建兼具环境因素侵蚀与载荷应力耦合作用的试验条件。方法 研制工程塑料环境因素与载荷应力协同作用试验装置,采用包括拉伸加载、弯曲加载、控制系统等组件的模块化设计,实现0.01~16 Hz加载频率的拉伸及弯曲载荷,最大1 550 kg的拉伸载荷,最大375 kg的弯曲载荷。结果 将研制完成的试验装置置于多型自然环境下对试验施加恒定和交变载荷,以真实模拟工程塑料实际服役中的环境因素与载荷应力协同作用。结论 试验装置制造加工难度小,结构稳定可靠,可用于评价和研究工程塑料等系列类型材料的环境损伤性能演变。     

不锈钢板式热沉传热特性的实验与模拟研究

目的 研究流量、胀高及焊点排布方式对不锈钢板式热沉传热特性的影响。方法 搭建实验平台,加工出结构参数不同的板式热沉实验件,同时采用静力隐式算法建立相应的几何模型,通过实验与数值模拟相结合的方法,研究流量、胀高和焊点排布方式的变化对板式热沉热阻的影响规律,并分析热沉流道内部流场状态。结果 首先计算了6个工况下的热阻,发现实际换热量为540 W时,数值模拟与实验结果的最大相对误差不大于25%。然后分析了误差来源,最后得到了热沉全流道速度场与温度场的分布情况。结论 实验与模拟结果有较好的符合程度,证明了数值模拟方法的可靠性。在换热量相同时,板式热沉的热阻随流量与胀高的增大而减小,焊点为菱形排布的热沉传热性能相对更好。板式热沉内部的流场具有周期性,焊点使流体扰动增强,并形成射流和旋涡,起到了强化传热的效果。