GPM卫星降水数据在天山山区的适用性分析

卫星降水产品在山区的适用性具有较高的不确定性。论文基于天山山区2014-2015年167个气象站点数据,应用较为广泛的两套卫星降水产品--TRMM与CMORPH,选用均方根误差（RMSE）、相关系数（R）、相对误差（PB）,以及分类统计分析指标（错报率FAR、探测率POD、公正先兆评分ETS、频率偏差BIAS）等,评估了新一代卫星降水产品--Global Precipitation Measurement（GPM）在天山山区的适用性。结果表明：相对于以上两种产品,GPM在山区的精度最高。具体表现在：1）3套产品在降水较多的夏秋季均表现较好,相对于TRMM与CMORPH,GPM与观测数据的相关系数最高（R≥0.6）,相对误差最小（PB≈10%）;2）在整个天山山区,GPM相对于其他两套产品表现出较低的误差范围（-55%~55%）;3）GPM在不同的高程带内,均表现出同观测站点较低的误差与较高的相关系数;4）3套降水产品均表现出对探测弱降水事件较高的准确性（POD≈0.58）和较低的错误率（FAR≈0.63）,但综合分析4种指数,GPM表现最佳,能够以较准确的精度和较低的误差估测降水系统。     

西藏草地生长季产草量动态变化及可持续发展策略

论文利用西藏地区草地产草量实际调查数据和NDVI数据集,建立西藏草地产草量估算模型,定量分析了1987—2010年间西藏草地生长季的产草量时空变化特征。研究表明：1987—2010年间,那曲地区草地产草量增速最大,增幅为54%,而拉萨地区草地产草量呈现负增长,减幅为4%。在空间分布上,总体呈现由西北向东南递增趋势;产草量增加的地区主要位于西藏中北部,南部多为产草量减少的区域。西藏草地产草量增加的区域面积占草地总面积的76.04%;产草量减少的区域面积仅占全区草地面积的23.96%。在年代际变化上,1996—2006年10 a间西藏产草量增加的区域面积显著大于减少的区域面积。为了改善西藏草地生态系统状况,进一步提高草地产草量,论文从草地开发利用、空间格局、病虫害防治和退耕还草生态补偿等方面提出西藏草地资源可持续发展策略。     

2006~2015年中国华北地区气溶胶的垂直分布特征

为研究高污染地区气溶胶形成机理提供理论依据,利用CALIPSO卫星提供的Level 2Profile和Level 2VFM产品,分析了华北地区2006～2015年532nm总后向散射系数,退偏振比,色比及不同类型气溶胶的时空变化特征,并结合地基观测资料,探讨了不同能见度下华北地区气溶胶垂直分布特征.结果表明：华北地区气溶胶粒子532nm总后向散射系数,退偏振比和色比范围依次为0.5×10^-3～8.0×10^-3km^-1sr^-1,0.14～0.3和0.6～2.0,且具有显著的季节和高度变化特征;能见度<5km时粒子散射能力最强,非球形最弱,粒径最小,对应的最大532nm总后向散射系数,最小退偏振比和最小色比依次为0.012km^-1sr^-1,0.092和0.856,能见度>10km时相反;污染沙尘,沙漠沙尘,污染大陆气溶胶和洁净海洋气溶胶集中在0～2km,出现的频率依次为13.81%,8.48%,5.45%和1.22%.     

基于LUCC的艾比湖区域生态风险评价及预测研究

以新疆内陆艾比湖流域典型区域为研究区,基于RS和GIS技术分析1998、2013年土地利用变化,尝试用CA-Markov模型预测2028年土地利用/覆盖变化.借助Fragstats3.4软件,基于土地利用/覆盖变化构建景观生态风险评价模型,分析1998~2028年景观生态风险的时空分异特征.结果表明：（1）1998~2013年,研究区土地类型面积变化明显.耕地面积增加量最大,增加的面积为152139hm²,而未利用地面积减少量最大,减少的面积为67605hm².2013~2028年,耕地和裸露的河床及盐渍地的面积增加明显,增加的面积分别为30730hm²,12427hm²,而未利用地和水体的面积分别从954376hm²和44889hm²,减至921079hm²和37157hm².（2）1998~2028年,研究区生态风险等级空间分布差异明显.高生态风险区面积变化较为显著,其面积分别约占总面积的36.6%,7.3%,23.7%.1998~2028年,全局Moran's Ⅰ值分别为0.436962,0.442202,0.506622,表现为一定程度的正相关.（3）1998~2028年,耕地分布在低,较低生态风险的比重上升,所占百分比分别为58.46%,78.58%,79.9%.林、草地类型的各生态风险等级的所占的比重的波动较大.     

流域污染负荷水质响应的时空数值源解析方法研究

以目前广泛应用的环境流体动力学模型EFDC为平台,构建时空数值源解析方法,理论上可以得到任意时刻任意空间点位污染物的来源构成.其原理是考虑水质模型的微分方程,直接对每个污染负荷再微分,从而将原来1个微分方程变为关于每个污染源的微分方程组,然后联立以EFDC的水动力模型求解,得到每个源对每个时空点的贡献.概化的抚仙湖模型作为数值案例用以验证方法.时空数值源解析的结果与传统扰动方法的结果几乎重合,验证了时空数值源解析方法的正确性.另一方面,数值案例中存在34个独立的污染源,扰动法则需要35次模拟,而时空数值源解析方法的结果通过单次模拟就可得到,说明时空数值源解析方法具有明显的计算效率优势.而通过对结果的进一步分析可以发现,时空数值源解析方法可以提供更精确的源贡献的动态描述.     

Using regression models to evaluate the formation of trihalomethanes and haloacetonitriles via chlorination of source water with low SUVA values in the Yangtze River Delta region,China

The purpose of this study was to develop the multiple regression models to evaluate the formation of trihalomethanes (THMs) and haloacetonitriles (HANs) during chlorination of source water with low specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA) in Yangtze River Delta, China. The results showed that the regression models of THMs exhibited good accuracy and precision, and 86–97 % of the calculated values fell within ±25 % of the measured values. While the HANs models showed relatively weak evaluation ability, as only 75–83 % of the calculated values were within ±25 % of the measured values. The organic matter [dissolved organic carbon (DOC) or UV absorbance at 254 nm] and bromide exerted the most important influence on the formation of HANs. While for THMs, besides the organic matter and bromide, reaction time was also a key factor. Comparing the models for total THMs (T-THMs) in this study with others revealed that the regression models from the low SUVA waters may have low DOC coefficients, but high bromide coefficients as compared with those from the high SUVA waters.     

Distribution of thifluzamide,fenoxanil and tebuconazole in rice paddy and dietary risk assessment

Distribution behaviors of thifluzamide, fenoxanil, and tebuconazole applied to rice were investigated in South China. Analysis was by a modified QuEChERS method with gas chromatography (thifluzamide and fenoxanil) and liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (tebuconazole). Thifluzamide and tebuconazole partitioned mainly into the soil, with half-lives in the paddy soil of 12–14 and 5.3–7.8 days, respectively. Fenoxanil partitioned mainly into the rice plants, with half-lives of 3.3–4.4 days. The half-lives of thifluzamide, fenoxanil, and tebuconazole in paddy water were 0.17–0.89, 1.8–3.0, and 1.6–4.0 days, respectively. The residues in rice grains at the pre-harvest interval of 14 days were all below the established maximum limit values. The dietary risks assessed as hazard quotients at the pre-harvest interval were less than 1.     

运动对2,3,7,8-四氯二苯并二恶英急性暴露大鼠肝脏抗氧化能力的影响

观察8周中等强度游泳运动对2,3,7,8-四氯二苯并二恶英(2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin,2,3,7,8-TCDD)急性暴露大鼠肝脏氧化应激的影响。以8周龄雄性Sprague Dawley大鼠为研究对象,将大鼠随机分为玉米油静养组(NC组)、玉米油运动组(EC组)、TCDD静养组(NT)和TCDD运动组(ET组)。将TCDD溶于玉米油中,NT和ET组大鼠按照10μg·kg-1(以单位体重计)腹腔注射TCDD,NC和EC组大鼠注射等量玉米油。正式实验开始后,EC和ET组大鼠进行运动(尾部负重5%游泳30min),每周运动5 d,共8周,NC和NT组大鼠不进行任何运动干预。8周后,称重并宰杀大鼠,收集血清和肝组织样本,待测血清天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶(AST)、丙氨酸氨基转移酶(ALT)的活性;肝组织丙二醛(MDA)含量,超氧化物歧化酶(SOD)、过氧化氢酶(CAT)以及谷胱甘肽过氧化物酶(GSH-Px)的活性。将数据进行多因素方差分析,结果表明,染毒可升高大鼠血清AST的活性,增加肝脏MDA的含量,降低肝脏SOD、CAT和GSH-Px的活性;运动可降低大鼠肝脏GSH-Px的活性;染毒后运动可减少肝脏MDA的含量,升高肝脏SOD、CAT和GSH-Px的活性。研究表明,TCDD急性暴露可导致大鼠肝细胞功能受损,导致大鼠肝脏发生氧化应激。8周有氧运动改善TCDD急性暴露诱导的肝细胞损伤,改善肝脏氧化应激,这可能是运动改善TCDD肝毒性的机制之一。     

Chemical characteristics of fine particulate matter emitted from commercial cooking

The chemical characteristics of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) emitted from commercial cooking were explored in this study. Three typical commercial restaurants in Shanghai, i.e., a Shanghai-style one (SHS), a Sichuan-style one (SCS) and an Italian-style one (ITS), were selected to conduct PM_2.5 sampling. Particulate organic matter (POM) was found to be the predominant contributor to cooking-related PM_2.5 mass in all the tested restaurants, with a proportion of 69.1% to 77.1%. Specifically, 80 trace organic compounds were identified and quantified by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS), which accounted for 3.8%–6.5% of the total PM_2.5 mass. Among the quantified organic compounds, unsaturated fatty acids had the highest concentration, followed by saturated fatty acids. Comparatively, the impacts of other kinds of organic compounds were much smaller. Oleic acid was the most abundant single species in both SCS and ITS. However, in the case of SHS, linoleic acid was the richest one. ITS produced a much larger mass fraction of most organic species in POM than the two Chinese cooking styles except for monosaccharide anhydrides and sterols. The results of this study could be utilized to explore the contribution of cooking emissions to PM_2.5 pollution and to develop the emission inventory of PM_2.5 from cooking, which could then help the policymakers design efficient treatment measures and control strategies on cooking emissions in the future.     

Characteristics of the stabilized/solidified municipal solid wastes incineration fly ash and the leaching behavior of Cr and Pb

Fly ash is a hazardous byproduct of municipal solid wastes incineration (MSWI). An alkali activated blast furnace slag-based cementitious material was used to stabilize/solidify the fly ash at experimental level. The characteristics of the stabilized/solidified fly ash, including metal leachability, mineralogical characteristics and the distributions of metals in matrices, were tested by toxic characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy-energy dispersive spectrometer (SEM-EDS) respectively. Continuous acid extraction was utilized to extract metal ions and characterize their leaching behavior. The stabilization/solidification procedure for MSWI fly ash demonstrates a strong fixing capacity for the metals by the formation of C-S-H phase, hydrated calcium aluminosilicate and ettringite. The stabilized/solidified fly ash shows a dense and homogeneous microstructure. Cr is mainly solidified in hydrated calcium aluminosilicate, C-S-H and ettringite phase through physical encapsulation, precipitation, adsorption or substitution mechanisms, and Pb is mainly solidified in C-S-H phase and absorbed in the Si-O structure.