低纬高原大气电场特征及其在预警中的应用

通过对2006年7月- 2007年6月云南地闪定位网探测资料和玉溪大气电场仪资料分析,研究了高原晴天大气电场和雷暴天气过程的电场演变特征.结果表明:高原晴天大气电场具有明显的日变化和月变化特征.低纬高原地区雷暴云具有偶极性和三极性两种结构,但大多数雷暴具有偶极性电荷结构,不同电荷结构的雷暴云的放电特征不同,偶极性时主要为负地闪,地闪活动较活跃;三极性时主要是正地闪,地闪活动较少.根据雷暴云近地面电场变化特征,探讨了大气电场仪预警地闪的方法,首次提出极性变化预警法,其命中率和提前预警时间都明显优于阈值预警法.     

2008年江苏持续性降雪中的水汽和动力抬升机制分析

2008年1月下旬江苏省出现了历史罕见的持续性暴雪过程,研究发现,降雪量的大小与低空急流的日变化相对应,暴雪过程中700 hPa西南急流对水汽的输送起着重要的作用,作为大尺度天气系统,700 hPa急流的加速发生在降雪量增大之前,其值阈大小与6 h降雪量之间没有对应关系,急流减弱在暴雪结束以后;降雪的发生和发展与南北风的增大和冷暖平流有关,低层偏北风作为冷垫对暖湿气流的抬升和水汽的凝结起到了一定的作用;江苏降雪过程中水汽主要来源于700～500 hPa,低层东风气流对黄海南部的水汽输送非常有限;强降雪的发生与700 hPa水汽通量散度相对应,水汽通量散度辐合增大,降雪量增大;在降雪过程中垂直运动对降雪量的大小有很好的指示意义。     

多变量洪水频率的计算

将Gunbel-logistic模型和Gumbel-mixed模型进行了对比,并解析了不同组合情形下的洪水频率结果。研究表明:当输入的二元变量的相关性不大于2/3时,两模型计算出的重现期值差异不大,当输入的二元变量的相关性大于2/3时,两模型计算出的重现期值存在较大的差异,这是由于此时Gumbel-mixed模型已经失效的缘故,因此Gunbel-logistic模型的应用范围较Gunbel-mixed模型更宽。就Gunbel-logistic模型而言,对不同洪水特征量的组合情形得到的重现期差异较大,所得重现期差异幅度达800年。可见,二元变量的洪水频率计算,模型的选择和洪水特征量组合情形的选取是决定洪水频率结果的主要影响因素。     

台风灾害气象指数保险相关技术方法初探

气象指数灾害保险是目前全球范围内广泛研究的一种风险转移工具,它可以克服传统的自然灾害保险的局限性,在农业保险领域应用前景广阔。以福建省连江县为例,依据连江县台风灾害及台风活动特征,将能够对连江县造成一定损失的台风分成分别以大风、大雨和大风雨为主导的3类。结合连江站相关气象数据及概率分布建立了广义的台风灾害气象指数,最后构建了保险赔付路线图,以供有关部门参考。     

风电自动发电控制策略可行性分析

为应对大规模风电并网运行带来的诸多不利因素,在传统水、火电机组有功控制技术的基础上,综合风电运行特点,研究分析了计划曲线跟踪、限时段控制等多种风电有功控制策略,并且成功实现了宁夏首次风电联网有功闭环控制。研究结果表明:风电有功控制策略有较强的可行性,能够为电网接纳大规模风电运行提供关键技术支撑。     

智能电网——大规模风、光电并网瓶颈问题的解决方案

针对大规模风、光发电集中接入电网后产生的负荷波动性及电能质量较差,给电网带来的安全性和稳定性问题,通过分析对比发现,智能电网具有很好的智能性、灵活性和兼容性,不但成功地解决了上述问题还可以适应多种形式的电源接入并能将其成功消纳。研究表明:发展智能电网是解决大规模风、光发电并网瓶颈问题的最佳方案。     

大运行体系下变电站运行画面远程调阅方法的实现

为实现电网“调控一体化”建设所需的“变电站运行画面远程调阅”应用业务,对电子式切换器、远方终端、图形网关、第三方应用软件4种常见实现方式进行了分析,总结对比了其优缺点。分析结果表明:第三方应用软件、图形网关2种方式更适合“变电站运行画面远程调阅”应用业务的需求。     

The Wind-Frequency Allocation Method on Discharge Loading of Function Zones

Abstract

This paper introduces a new allocation method on discharge loading of each function zone in a total emission control region. The wind frequency, the position of each district, and the pollutant’s influence area were taken into account in this new method. The concept of “average downwind distance” was brought forward in this paper. The method here is more reasonable than the original method of area distribution, which was proposed by the “A-value” method in regulation of total emissions in China, by means of the simulation of annual average concentration in the total emission control region.     

Properties of Pyrolytic Chars and Activated Carbons Derived from Pilot-Scale Pyrolysis of Used Tires

Abstract

Used tires were pyrolyzed in a pilot-scale quasi-inert rotary kiln. Influences of variables, such as time, temperature, and agent flow, on the activation of obtained char were subsequently investigated in a laboratory-scale fixed bed. Meso-porous pores are found to be dominant in the pore structures of raw char. Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surfaces of activated chars increased linearly with carbon burnoff. The carbon burnoff of tire char achieved by carbon dioxide (CO₂) under otherwise identical conditions was on average 75% of that achieved by steam, but their BET surfaces are almost the same. The proper activation greatly improved the aqueous adsorption of raw char, especially for small molecular adsorbates, for example, phenol from 6 to 51 mg/g. With increasing burnoff, phenol adsorption exhibited a first-stage linear increase followed by a rapid drop after 30% burnoff. Similarly, iodine adsorption first increased linearly, but it held as the burnoff exceeded 40%, which implied that the reduction of iodine adsorption due to decreasing micro-pores was partially made up by increasing mesopores. Both raw chars and activated chars showed appreciable adsorption capacity of methylene-blue comparable with that of commercial carbons. Thus, tire-derived activated carbons can be used as an excellent mesoporous adsorbent for larger molecular species.     

Projecting Climate Change Effects on Forest Net Primary Productivity in Subtropical Louisiana,USA

This study projected responses of forest net primary productivity (NPP) to three climate change scenarios at a resolution of 5 km × 5 km across the state of Louisiana, USA. In addition, we assessed uncertainties associated with the NPP projection at the grid and state levels. Climate data of the scenarios were derived from Community Climate System Model outputs. Changes in annual NPP between 2000 and 2050 were projected with the forest ecosystem model PnET-II. Results showed that forest productivity would increase under climate change scenarios A1B and A2, but with scenario B1, it would peak during 2011–2020 and then decline. The projected average NPP under B1 over the years from 2000 to 2050 was significantly different from those under A1B and A2. Forest NPP appeared to be primarily a function of temperature, not precipitation. Uncertainties of the NPP projection were due to large spatial resolution of the climate variables. Overall, this study suggested that in order to project effects of climate change on forest ecosystem at regional level, modeling uncertainties could be reduced by increasing the spatial resolution of the climate projections.