广东省春节期间空气质量特征及预报方法研究

2017年春节期间广东省环境空气质量自动监测站的数据分析结果表明:春节假期广东省空气质量等级变化较大.除夕全省空气质量为良;初一,全省以良和轻度污染为主,粤东出现重度污染,粤西和粤北出现中度污染,可能与除夕夜烟花爆竹燃放有关;初二起,全省空气质量逐渐转为优良.首要污染物以PM2.5和O3为主.现有的NAQPMS和CMAQ空气质量预报模型在污染相对严重的初一表现较差,主要是因为数值模型未能考虑到烟花爆竹燃放等排放源的输入.     

基于模糊方法的电除尘器火花率模型的研究

研究静电除尘器火花跟踪控制方式在不同煤种中的最佳火花率问题.火花率、燃煤灰分与除尘效率之间的关系非常复杂,难以建立精确的数学模型.利用模糊理论解决不同煤种对电除尘器最佳火花率的影响问题,根据实际的应用经验建立了由电场火花率、燃煤灰分决定电除尘器除尘效率的模糊关系.仿真结果表明,所采用的方法能根据不同煤种的变化找到电场的...     

综放支承压力峰值位置的理论及回归分析

鉴于综放支承压力峰值位置对工作面安全生产影响的重要性,对支承压力峰值位置的确定进行了研究分析。其中煤体硬度、煤层厚度及工作面推进速度为支承压力峰值位置的主要影响因素。采用相似模拟实验及理论分析方法研究各因素对支承压力峰值位置的影响规律及其函数关系。最后应用回归分析方法得到了支承压力峰值位置确定的经验公式,并将其进行了实际应用。结果表明:上述3个影响因素对支承压力峰值位置的影响均为非线性的;支承压力峰值位置与煤体硬度近似地满足反比关系;支承压力峰值位置与开采煤层厚度、工作面推进速度满足指数函数关系;通过对这3个因素的回归分析,可以确定支承压力的峰值位置。     

北京市郊污灌区镉、铜在小麦中的富集特征

为探讨污灌农田重金属Cd、Cu在小麦中的迁移富集特征及对人类健康的安全性影响,选取北京城郊污灌区17块代表性小麦(Triticum aestivum)样地,运用BCR顺序提取法和高分辨电感耦合等离子体质谱仪(HR-ICP-MS)测定了土壤中Cd、Cu不同化学形态质量比和土壤及小麦根、茎、颖壳、籽粒中消解态全量.结果表明,污灌土壤中Cd、Cu质量比均值分别为0.25mg·kg-1和26.67 mg·kg-1,高于北京土壤元素背景值,已出现积累现象.小麦植株各组织中中Cd质量比从大到小为:根(210.09 μg·kg-1)、茎(100.19 μg·kg-1)、颖壳(60.71μg·kg-1)、籽粒(38.33 μg·kg-1).植株地上部分Cd质量比的加权平均值为52.62 μg·kg-1.Cu质量比从大到小为:根(9.47mg·kg-1)、籽粒(6.03mg·kg-1)、茎(3.53 mg·kg-1)、颖壳(2.94mg·kg-1).植株地上部分Cu质量比的加权平均值为5.30mg·kg-1.Cd、Cu富集系数(BCF)分别为0.38和0.27,转移系数(TI)分别为0.25和0.69.土壤中Cd酸提取态(生物有效态)比例和风险评价(RAC)值显著高于Cu.小麦Cd和Cu的有效性系数(BEC)均值分别为0.18和0.28,表明Cu向地上部分转移能力强于Cd,Cu容易被小麦籽粒吸收;小麦籽粒中Cd、Cu最大质量比分别为0.125mg·kg-1和15.48 mg·kg-1,高于食品中污染物限量标准值25%和50%,应对食品安全给予更多关注.从保证粮食安全性角度出发,建议选择种植有效性系数较低的作物品种(如玉米、豆类),以减少重金属向食物链的迁移.     

三峡库区湖北段工业源污染负荷与预测

针对三峡库区工业源污染排放量大,对库区水生态环境安全危害大的特点,以库区湖北段工业源为研究对象,采用实际监测和企业申报监测数据方式,辅以排污系数计算方法,统计分析了1995-2007年工业废水量和主要污染物COD的排放量,并采用灰色-马尔柯夫链模型预测2008-2020年的污染负荷.结果表明,自2005年以后,工业废水的排放量呈现逐渐下降的趋势,在2007年达到1 857.13万t,2008年以后逐渐增加.COD的排放量总体呈逐渐下降的趋势,只是在2001年出现上升,到2007年底COD的排放量为611.21 t.随着工业源污染物全防全控的加强,预计工业污染负荷会逐步减少.     

巢湖流域SRTM高程误差的空间分异研究

数字高程模型是进行地学研究的重要基础数据,SRTM、DEM是公众可以免费获取的精度达90m的DEM数据.以我国1:5万DEM为参考数据,以巢湖流域为研究区,利用高程中误差模型和单位面积土地填挖方对SRTM、DEM进行高程精度研究,并分析了高程误差的空间分异规律.结果表明,SRTM、DEM的高程中误差和单位面积土地填挖方随着地貌类型的变化呈现明显的空间分异性,这主要由于SRTM像元精度不高所致.在研究区内的33块样区中,绝大部分都是在二级精度评价标准之内,可见SRTM、DEM整体精度较高.     

Prediction of total bed material load for rivers in Malaysia: A case study of Langat,Muda and Kurau Rivers

A soft computational technique is applied to predict sediment loads in three Malaysian rivers. The feed forward-back propagated (schemes) artificial neural network (ANNs) architecture is employed without any restriction to an extensive database compiled from measurements in Langat, Muda, Kurau different rivers. The ANN method demonstrated a superior performance compared to other traditional sediment-load methods. The coefficient of determination, 0.958 and the mean square error 0.0698 of the ANN method are higher than those of the traditional method. The performance of the ANN method demonstrates its predictive capability and the possibility of generalization of the modeling to nonlinear problems for river engineering applications.     

Distribution and chemical partitioning of heavy metals in marine near-shore sediment cores: a case study from the Xugou, Lianyungang, China

The concentrations and chemical partitioning of heavy metals (Co, Cr, Ni, Zn, Cu, and Pb) in the marine near-shore sediment cores were investigated. Typically, the mean concentrations from Core B sediment samples were 98.6, 21.1, 47.0, 46.4, 107.6, and 31.9 mg kg^???1 for Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb, respectively. The heavy metal concentrations were normalized to commonly used reference elements Al, Li, Sc, and total organic carbon. Based on Pearson coefficients, Li was found to be a good normalizer for Co (r?= 0.974), Cr (r?= 0.967), Ni (r?= 0.898), and Zn (r?= 0.929) in 80 sediment samples from three sampling sites. However, the correlation coefficients between Li and Cu, and Li and Pb were relatively low. Multivariate statistic approaches (Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis) were adopted for data treatment, allowing the identification of two main factors controlling the heavy metal variability in the sediments. Heavy metals in the enrichment sections were evaluated by a sequential extraction method for possible chemical forms in sediments. The results showed that the residual, Fe/Mn oxides and Organic/sulfide fractions were dominant geochemical phases in the enriched sections, indicating low bioavailability of heavy metals in sediments.     

复杂系统安全涌现及其控制策略研究

复杂系统事故成因的复杂性促使人们从系统科学和复杂性科学的角度来分析和处理复杂系统的安全问题.通过探讨复杂系统可靠性和安全性的关系,论证安全是复杂系统的整体涌现这一论题.通过分析系统安全涌现的内涵,提出用于度量复杂系统风险状态的风险熵理论,给出了复杂系统安全事故立体致因网络的构建方法,并提出了通过控制复杂致因网络上风险熵的动力学传播过程来控制复杂系统安全涌现的研究思路.研究结论对复杂系统安全问题的研究有推动作用.     

Support of sustainable management of nitrogen contamination due to septic systems using numerical modeling methods

Nitrogen contamination is a serious concern to sustainable environmental management, and one important source of nitrogen contaminant is due to wastewater treatment using onsite sewage treatment and disposal systems (OSTDS, a.k.a., septic systems). This paper presents a study in which numerical modeling is used to support sustainable decision-making and management of nitrogen contamination by utilizing a recently developed GIS-based software, VZMOD, a Vadose Zone MODel for simulating nitrogen transformation and transport in vadose zone between drainfield of septic systems and water table. VZMOD is based on a physical model of unsaturated flow and nitrogen transformation and transport, and the model is solved numerically using the finite element methods. This is the major difference between VZMOD and other GIS-based software of nitrogen modeling. Using GIS techniques, VZMOD considers spatial variability of a number of hydrogeologic parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and porosity. A unique feature of VZMOD is that VZMOD addresses spatial variability of water table by using VZMOD together with ArcNLET, an ArcGIS-based software developed to simulate groundwater flow and nitrate load from septic systems to surface water bodies. VZMOD is designed to execute in different modes to be compatible with different levels of data availability in various management projects of nitrogen contamination. This paper presents an application of VZMOD at a neighborhood with hundreds of septic systems and heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and water table depth. The modeling results indicate that using septic systems at the considered neighborhood is unsustainable and more management means are necessary.