面向可持续城市生态系统管理的资源环境承载力评价方法与实践应用——以烟台市为例

全面科学的资源环境承载力评价是国土空间规划编制的前提。面向可持续生态系统管理视角,提出了由“潜在”和“现实”资源环境承载力构成的资源环境承载力评价框架和理论模型,并以烟台为案例进行应用,分析了“潜在”和“现实”资源环境承载指数的相互关系。结果表明：（1）烟台市“潜在”资源环境承载指数总体偏高,“现实”资源环境承载指数总体中等,各区（县）空间差异较大。（2）水资源短缺与环境污染问题是未来影响烟台市可持续发展的瓶颈,资源环境禀赋的限制和经济发展对城市生态系统服务弱供给区域影响较大,对“潜在”资源环境承载指数的影响在城市边缘区域较大。（3）所提出的评价逻辑框架和理论模型应用效果良好,丰富和完善了资源环境承载力评价理论方法。     

巢湖沉积物重金属污染生态风险评价及来源解析

为掌握巢湖沉积物中重金属污染现状并定量解析其来源,采用定点采样的方法获得了巢湖沉积物2015～2017年Cu、Zn、Pb、Ni、Cr、Cd、As、Hg等重金属数据,使用反距离加权插值法和风险评价编码法研究了上述重金属的空间分布特征及潜在生态风险,并应用PMF模型解析了其重金属来源,结果表明:巢湖沉积物中As三年含量均值超过了GB15618中规定的碱性水田土壤风险筛选值,而Zn生物可利用形态占比高,生态潜在风险大;巢湖沉积物中各类金属的空间分布与周边交通线位置相契合,主要表现出东西高中部低的状态,巢湖沉积物中总重金属主要来自交通源(43%)、自然源(27%)、农业源(18%)、工业源(12%),交通源贡献最大、自然源占比高于农业源和工业源,表明当前巢湖正处于城市化初始阶段,其重金属污染水平较低。但随着城市化规模的扩大及程度的加深,巢湖沉积物中重金属污染存在逐年加剧的风险。     

航道水域的船舶夜航环境风险评价

准确地识别航道水域夜航环境的风险因子并对其进行客观、合理地评价,可以有效规避该风险并保障航道水域船舶的夜航安全。在查阅分析大量文献的基础上,结合专家意见确定航道水域夜航环境风险评价指标体系,运用层次分析法和熵权法确定了各指标的主、客观权重。采用物元综合评价法对航道水域夜航环境风险进行评价,通过查阅相关标准和文献确定航道水域夜航环境风险因子的经典域和节域,将实测的定量定性指标数据代入关联函数计算得出对应等级的关联度,乘以权重向量后确定该水域环境的风险等级。选取天津港3条航道进行实例评价,结果表明,船舶在航道B夜航为低风险,在航道A和航道C夜航为一般风险,实例结果与航道实际情况一致,验证了该方法的有效性。     

红碱淖湖泊表层沉积物重金属生态风险评价

为掌握红碱淖重金属污染水平及其生态风险,我们对红碱淖表层沉积物开展了重金属分析,采用元素富集因子法和潜在生态风险指数法对沉积物重金属进行生态风险评价。结果表明:(1)湖心样品的重金属元素丰度比湖岸样品略高;(2)红碱淖各采样点重金属均处于轻度污染状态,仅Cd存在一定程度的富集;(3)沉积物重金属潜在生态风险指数处于较低水平。     

形状任意的超材料电磁隐身波长变换器的设计

目的研究形状任意的超材料电磁隐身波长变换器的设计方法。方法基于坐标变换理论,通过对空间中的不同区域先后进行压缩和扩张变换,设计出该装置不同区域的电磁参数张量。结果一方面,入射波经过该装置时,在其界面不产生散射,并且入射波穿过装置进入外部自由空间时又能恢复其初始传播状态;另一方面,该装置在特定区域改变了电磁波的波长。结论有限元软件的仿真结果显示波长变换器实现了预期的电磁功能,从而验证了该装置电磁参数张量表达式的正确性。     

Effects of digital countdown timer on intersection safety and efficiency: A systematic review

Objective: To investigate the available evidence referring to the effectiveness of digital countdown timers (DCTs) in improving the safety and operational efficiency of signalized intersection.

Methods: A systematic review was performed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement guidelines. Relevant literature was searched from electronic databases using key terms. Based on study selection and methodological quality assessment, 14 studies were included in the review. Findings of the studies were synthesized in a narrative analysis.

Results: Three types of DCT had different effects on intersection safety and operational efficiency. Green signal countdown timers (GSCTs) reduced red light violations, type I dilemma zone distributions, and rear-end collision likelihood but increased crossing after yellow onset and had mixed impacts on type II dilemma zone distributions and intersection capacity. In contrast, red signal countdown timers (RSCTs) increased intersection capacity, although their effectiveness in reducing red light violations dissipated over time. Likewise, continuous countdown timers (CCTs) significantly enhanced intersection capacity but had mixed influences on red light violations and crossing after yellow onset.

Conclusions: Due to the limited and inconsistent evidence regarding DCTs' effects on intersection safety and efficiency, it is not sufficient to recommend any type of DCT to be installed at signalized intersections to improve safety and operational efficiency. Nevertheless, it is apparent that both RSCTs and CCTs enhance intersection capacity, though their impacts on intersection safety are unclear. Future studies need to further verify those anticipated safe and operational benefits of DCTs with enriched field observation data.     

Ag_6P_2W_(18)O_(62)/TiO_2/膨胀石墨复合光催化剂的制备及甲基橙的降解

以钛酸四丁酯为钛源、膨胀石墨(EG)为载体,通过溶胶凝胶-浸渍法制备了Ag_6P_2W_(18)O_(62)/TiO_2/EG复合光催化剂。采用SEM,EDS,XRD,FTIR,UV-vis等技术对其进行表征,研究了该催化剂在紫外光及可见光下对甲基橙的降解性能。表征结果显示:Ag_6P_2W_(18)O_(62)被成功负载到TiO_2上且保持Dawson结构;经Ag_6P_2W_(18)O_(62)表面修饰后的复合光催化剂可见光吸收性能增强;EG提供的丰富孔道有利于有机污染物吸附去除。实验结果表明:在甲基橙质量浓度为20 mg/L、催化剂加入量为1.0 g/L、反应温度为25℃的条件下,n(Ag)∶n(Ti)=1∶16时的复合光催化剂(ATE-2)的紫外光、可见光催化活性最佳;紫外光下反应70 min时甲基橙去除率为96.5%,可见光下反应40 h时甲基橙去除率为83.5%;ATE-2使用5次后,反应70 min时,其甲基橙去除率仍为92.5%。     

Monitoring atmospheric nitrous oxide background concentrations at Zhongshan Station, east Antarctica

At present,continuous observation data for atmospheric nitrous oxide(N_2O) concentrations are still lacking,especially in east Antarctica.In this paper,nitrous oxide background concentrations were measured at Zhongshan Station(69°22′25″S,76°22′14″E),east Antarctica during the period of 2008–2012,and their interannual and seasonal characteristics were analyzed and discussed.The mean N_2O concentration was 321.9 n L/L with the range of 320.5–324.8 n L/L during the five years,and it has been increasing at a rate of 0.29% year-1.Atmospheric N_2O concentrations showed a strong seasonal fluctuation during these five years.The concentrations appeared to follow a downtrend from spring to autumn,and then increased in winter.Generally the highest concentrations occurred in spring.This trend was very similar to that observed at other global observation sites.The overall N_2O concentration at the selected global sites showed an increasing annual trend,and the mean N_2O concentration in the Northern Hemisphere was slightly higher than that in the Southern Hemisphere.Our result could be representative of atmospheric N_2O background levels at the global scale.This study provided valuable data for atmospheric N_2O concentrations in east Antarctica,which is important to study on the relationships between N2 O emissions and climate change.     

结构可靠性的概率设计法综述

综述了目前国际上结构可靠性设计法领域现有的概率设计法,如随机有限元法、一阶及二阶可靠性设计法、蒙特卡罗法及拉丁超立方采样法、随机过程及随机场。讨论了具有代表性的概率设计法,如多项式混沌扩展法及KL变换。基于随机过程概念的随机扩展法具有良好的分析收敛特性,直接采用随机扩展法进行随机分析是一种高效的可靠性解算方法。Karhunen和Loeve基于由协方差函数导出的正交坐标函数,分别对连续时间过程进行了描述,KL变换能有效减少相关数据集的维度。当协方差函数已知时,可采用KL扩展法表征不确定性系统的随机特征;而当结构响应的协方差函数未知时,可采用PCE代替KL扩展法来表示这种类型的不确定性。出于对工程系统性能的严格要求,安全及可靠性余量的进一步缩小,加之严酷的市场竞争等因素,结构可靠性的概率设计法将迅速在多学科设计领域中得到广泛应用并产生显著的工程及经济效益,有力地推动我国装备质量的跨越式发展。     

高放废物地质处置关键核素在粘土岩预选区中的迁移模拟研究

利用GMS计算了放射性核素Nb-93 m,Se-79,Tc-99,Zr-93,Sn-126在陇东预选区中百万年尺度的污染迁移过程.模拟结果表明:粘土岩由于极低的渗透性和较强的吸附能力,能够有效的阻止核素在围岩中的迁移.其中,迁移距离最大的核素为Se-79,最大迁移距离为242 m,在距泄露点68 m处其活度浓度的峰值为23000 Bq/l,处置库在百万年内总的活度释放量约为4.3E18Bq,其中起主要贡献的核素是Se-79,其次是Tc-99.