基于CHIRPS卫星降水的雅砻江流域干湿时空演变分析

雅砻江流域是我国水电开发的重点区域之一，在全球气候变化背景下探究流域干湿时空演变规律有利于合理规划和充分利用水资源，为流域内农业生产活动提供科学指导。基于1981~2017年雅砻江流域内及周边16个气象站月气象数据，采用Penman-Monteith（PM）公式计算各站逐月潜在蒸散量ET0，基于气象站降水校正CHIRPS卫星降水产品，从而获得更高空间分辨率的降水数据，以此计算标准化降水蒸散SPEI指数，采用云模型、Mann-Kendall（MK）趋势检验法分析流域年代际、年、季尺度的干湿时空分布特征与变化趋势。结果表明：（1）对CHIRPS卫星降水产品进行偏差校正不但提高了精度，而且能够获得更高空间分辨率的降水；（2）流域春季呈湿润化趋势，其余时间尺度均呈现干旱化趋势，以冬季干旱化速率最快。年尺度下干湿变化不均匀度的稳定性最差，秋季稳定性相对最好。春、冬两季SPEI空间分布的不均匀度弱于时间分布；（3）同一时间尺度下的流域各级别干湿相对面积近似呈正态分布，流域干湿变化趋势空间分布差异较大；（4）流域各级别干旱与湿润高发区无明显区域分布规律，发生干旱与湿润的最高频率在20%左右，且随着干湿程度的加重，频率变化范围逐渐缩小；（5）不同年代干湿频率差异较为显著，年平均干旱频率变化趋势为减-增-减，湿润频率变化趋势为增-减-减，湿润频率高值区呈现由下游向上游转移的趋势。     

Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

Effect of alginate on the aggregation kinetics of copper oxide nanoparticles (CuO NPs): bridging interaction and hetero-aggregation induced by Ca<Superscript>2+</Superscript>

The stability of CuO nanoparticles (NPs) is expected to play a key role in the environmental risk assessment of nanotoxicity in aquatic systems. In this study, the effect of alginate (model polysaccharides) on the stability of CuO NPs in various environmentally relevant ionic strength conditions was investigated by using time-resolved dynamic light scattering. Significant aggregation of CuO NPs was observed in the presence of both monovalent and divalent cations. The critical coagulation concentrations (CCC) were 54.5 and 2.9 mM for NaNO₃ and Ca(NO₃)₂, respectively. The presence of alginate slowed nano-CuO aggregation rates over the entire NaNO₃ concentration range due to the combined electrostatic and steric effect. High concentrations of Ca²⁺ (>6 mM) resulted in stronger adsorption of alginate onto CuO NPs; however, enhanced aggregation of CuO NPs occurred simultaneously under the same conditions. Spectroscopic analysis revealed that the bridging interaction of alginate with Ca²⁺ might be an important mechanism for the enhanced aggregation. Furthermore, significant coagulation of the alginate molecules was observed in solutions of high Ca²⁺ concentrations, indicating a hetero-aggregation mechanism between the alginate-covered CuO NPs and the unabsorbed alginate. These results suggested a different aggregation mechanism of NPs might co-exist in aqueous systems enriched with natural organic matter, which should be taken into consideration in future studies.

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Graphical abstract Hetero-aggregation mechanism of CuO nanoparticles and alginate under high concentration of Ca²⁺

     

洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫水人水相互作用关系及防控方案研究

研究洞庭湖区血吸虫病人水相互作用关系及传染防控,是推进湖区社会经济稳定健康发展的重要保障。从水文情势、产业发展、居民行为、城乡建设四方面探讨了洞庭湖区血吸虫病疫水人水相互作用关系,并运用系统动力学模型,设置教育优先方案、生态保护优先方案和城镇化推进方案对其防控方案进行系统仿真模拟和对比分析,研究结果表明:(1)水文等生态因素对于人水接触的影响逐步减少,而社会经济因素则显得越来越重要。(2)系统动力学模型能有效展示血吸虫病各影响因素之间的关系,是研究血吸虫病防控的有效方法之一。(3)依据仿真模拟结果,城镇化推进方案是经济增长、城乡协调、环境友好的最优血防方案。     

Rebound effect and its decomposition – an analysis based on energy types in China

Rebound effect derived from energy efficiency improvement has been widely invested. However, most of studies focus on the rebound effect of the energy composite level and neither distinguish nor compare different energy types. We compare the differences in energy saving and energy rebound between primary and secondary energy sources, and further decompose the rebound effect into production rebound part and final demand component. To do so, we add a module for rebound into a comparative state China-CGE model. We design and test two simulation scenarios using the model. In Scenario 1, all production sectors’ energy efficiency of using primary energy increases by 5%. In Scenario 2, all production sectors’ energy efficiency of using secondary energy increases by 5%. The results show that Scenario 2 leads to more GDP growth and more energy saving. Our scenarios show rebound effects range between 9.6% and 27.9%, and in general are higher when energy efficiency of using primary energy sources is improved. Our decomposition analysis shows that improving energy efficiency in production sectors would stimulates energy use of final demand. Indeed, the consumption side has significant contribution to rebound in secondary energy use, especially in crude oil and gas. This study reveals that improving efficiency of using secondary energy is better than improving that of primary energy, both in terms of economic impact and energy rebound. And complementary policies that prevent energy services prices from falling too much can be adopted to reduce rebound. Controlling residential energy use could also be effective in reducing rebound, this has particular implication to economies in which residential energy consumption are far from saturation.     

Correlations between physicochemical properties of PAHs and their distribution in soil, moss and reindeer dung at Ny-Ålesund of the Arctic

Concentrations of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in soil, moss and reindeer dung collected at Ny-Ålesund of the Arctic were measured to investigate their accumulation trends and distribution in the three compartments. Compared with the other regions, the proportions of 2 + 3 ring PAHs to the total PAHs were higher, whereas the proportions of 5 + 6 ring PAHs were lower in the three compartments at Ny-Ålesund. Significant log/log-linear relationship was observed between the sub-cooled liquid vapor pressure and the soil/moss quotient (Q_SM). The relation was similar to the relationship between the gas/particle partition coefficient (K_P) and of PAHs, implying Q_SM would be a “mirror image” of K_P. Excellent log/log-linear relationships were observed between Q_SM and K_OA as well as between the moss/dung quotient (Q_MD) and K_OW. The results presented here indicate the physicochemical properties are suitable for characterizing the distribution of PAHs in soil, moss and reindeer dung.     

粗石英砂层厚度及倾角对核废物处置库顶盖毛细屏障效应的影响

毛细屏障作为核废物处置库顶盖的工程屏障之一,已经在国内外得到了广泛应用.采用箱体实验方法,研究了非饱和稳定流条件下粗石英砂层厚度和倾角对毛细屏障效应的影响.结果表明,随着粗石英砂层厚度的增大,水分的相对绕流量增大,毛细屏障效应增强;随着粗石英砂层倾角的增大,其表面积水减少,水的横向流动能力增强,毛细屏障效应增强.     

太湖蓝藻水华的遥感监测研究

随着太湖蓝藻水华的日益严重,实现藻类的时空动态监测成为湖泊水质保护亟待解决的问题.利用遥感技术可以快速、直观地获取整个水域水质的时空变化情况,为实现藻类的动态监测提供了有效的途径.在太湖蓝藻水华遥感监测研究结果的基础上,总结分析了现有研究中所使用的遥感数据源、遥感监测方法以及遥感反演的水质参数,讨论了现有研究中存在的问题,并对将来的发展趋势进行了展望.     

北京市春季大气颗粒物污染特性研究

为研究北京市春季大气颗粒物污染特性,2008年3月至2008年5月,对北京市西三环大气颗粒物进行采样分析.测定了总悬浮颗粒物(TSP)与可吸入颗粒物(PM10)的日平均质量浓度,使用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)观察大气颗粒物的微观形貌,并通过X射线能谱仪(EDX)对样品中的元素组成进行分析.结果表明,TSP和PM10日平均质量浓度以初春最高,春天次之,春夏交际最低;PM10/TSP以春夏交际最高,初春次之,春天最低;大气颗粒物形态有规则和不规则2类,以不规则形态居多,同时发现花粉颗粒存在.EDX分析表明,大气颗粒物所附着的重金属中Pb所占的质量分散最高,并且集中吸附在细粒子颗粒物上.