Projected Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) for bacillary dysentery related to increased temperature in temperate and subtropical cities of China

The impact of climate change on enteric infection has been a concern in recent years. This study aims to project disability burdens of bacillary dysentery (BD) associated with increasing temperature in different climatic zones in China. Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of burden of bacillary dysentery in this study. A temperate city in northern China and a subtropical city in southern China were selected as the study areas. The quantitative relationship between temperature and the number of cases in each city was base on the regression models developed in our previous studies. YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2000 were used as the baseline data. Projection of YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2020 and 2050 under future temperature scenarios were conducted. Demographic changes over the next 20 to 50 years in study cities were considered in the projections. Under the temperature scenarios alone, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may increase by up to 80% by 2020 and 174% by 2050 in the temperate city and up to 75% increase in the YLDs by 2020 and a 147% increase by 2050 in the tropical city. Considering potential changes in both temperature and population size and structure, if other factors remain constant, compared with the YLDs observed in 2000, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may double by 2020 and triple by 2050 in both the temperate and subtropical cities in China. The temperature-related health burden of enteric infection in China may greatly increase in the future if there is no effective intervention. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an earlier stage to prevent and reduce the impact of infectious disease associated with climate change.     

“三权分置”下农地细碎化治理的社会路径及其效果、效益分析——基于“沙洋模式”的考察

基于湖北省沙洋县农地细碎化治理经验,分析了在“三权分置”改革背景下,开展农地细碎化治理的社会路径及其效果、效益。研究结果显示：（1）农民对农地细碎化治理的需求较强,“三权分置”改革可以增强农民的土地获得感和土地调整能力,使他们既作为农地细碎化治理结果的“受益者”,又作为农地细碎化治理过程的“主导者”;（2）借助“承包权”和“经营权”的分离,稳定农户的“承包权”,调整细碎耕地的“经营权”,使“承包者”与“经营者”都可以获取合理的产权预期;（3）地方政府和村集体在土地调整过程中发挥着协调与整合的重要作用,它们通过如理性计算与长远规划等具有地方特色的策略,能够有效提高农地细碎化治理的执行效率。研究发现：农地细碎化治理的社会路径可以实现较好的治理效果,并具有显著的经济效益和社会效益,有助于维护农村的社会稳定与可持续发展。研究建议：伴随农地确权工作进程,当前是实现农地细碎化治理的较好契机。全国其它地区可以结合村庄实际、地方资源与农民需求,选择诸如“经营权”流转、互换等多种适宜的土地调整形式,有效破解农地细碎化困境,进一步提高我国农地资源配置效率。     

中国春季降水与南印度洋偶极子的关系研究

利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局海温资料和1951~2010年中国160站月降水量资料,分析了前期冬季（12~2月）印度洋海表温度与中国160站春季降水的关系及其影响机制。研究表明：冬季印度洋海温异常的空间模态主要有两种：符号一致的单极和东、西符号相反的南印度偶极。将第2模态的时间系数定义为南印度洋偶极子指数。该指数与中国次年春季降水关系较好,并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行机制分析,发现主要南印度洋偶极子通过以下途径影响中国春季降水：中高纬,SIOD的影响主要引起低纬度的海温及对流异常,通过中低纬度间的相互作用,在中高纬产生较强的遥响应,从而影响同期冬季欧亚大陆的环流变化,这种扰动在西风气流的作用下引起后期春季北太平洋地区对流活动异常,通过中低纬度间的相互作用,加强中高纬地区的遥响应,表现为欧亚大陆EUP波列;低纬,SIOD的影响主要引起南海-海洋性大陆的海温及对流异常,引发经向环流异常,导致黄河至长江中下游地区垂直运动异常和气流辐合异常     

湖南省四水流域水沙周期特征及其影响因素分析

采用复小波变换和M K非参数检验的方法分析了湖南省四水流域主要控制站1951~2011年径流量与输沙量周期规律和突变特征。结果表明：(1)湖南四水径流量存在多个波动增加和波动减少的波动变化现象,但无显著变化趋势;而输沙量虽然有一定的波动,但总体上呈波动减少变化态势,而且下降趋势较显著;(2)湘潭站、桃江站和桃源站径流量和输沙量存在20~25 a的第一主周期,而石门站径流量和输沙量的第一主周期不具有一致性,径流量主周期为2 a,输沙量主周期为13 a,但其径流量和输沙量第二、三主周期变化规律相吻合,均为3~5 a的周期;(3)大量的水利工程建设是导致输沙量减少的主要原因,径流量的变化与降水的变化规律较为一致     

Effects of di-n-butyl phthalate on the physiology and ultrastructure of cucumber seedling roots

Agricultural pollution caused by the use of plastic sheetings has been documented to be a widespread problem in most of the major crop-planting regions of the world. In order to better understand the phytotoxic mechanisms induced by phthalic acid esters involved with this problem, Cucumber sativus L. cv Jinyan No. 4 were sown in pots to the three-leaf-stage in the presence of di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP; 0, 30, 50, 100, and 200 mg L^?1) for 1, 3, 5, or 7 days. Physiology, biochemistry, and ultrastructure of seedling roots were examined. The results indicated that activities of three antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), and peroxidase (POD)) were stimulated at low-DBP treatments and decreased under higher levels (>100 mg L^?1) compared to the controls. On the other hand, SOD and POD provided a better defense against DBP-induced oxidative damage in the roots of cucumber seeding, compared to CAT. The productions of both malondialdehyde (MDA) and proline (Pro) were promoted under DBP stress. Visible impact on the cytoderm, mitochondrion, and vacuole was detected, possibly as a consequence of free radical generation. These results suggested that activation of the antioxidant system by DBP led to the formation of reactive oxygen species that resulted in cellular damage.     

Chemical oxidation of sulfadiazine by the Fenton process: Kinetics,pathways, toxicity evaluation

This paper investigated sulfadiazine oxidation by the Fenton process under various reaction conditions. The reaction conditions tested in the experiments included the initial pH value of reaction solutions, and the dosages of ferrous ions and hydrogen peroxide. Under the reaction conditions with pH 3, 0.25 mM of ferrous ion and 2 mM of hydrogen peroxide, a removal efficiency of nearly 100% was achieved for sulfadiazine. A series of intermediate products including 4-OH-sulfadiazine/or 5-OH-sulfadiazine, 2-aminopyrimidine, sulfanilamide, formic acid, and oxalic acid were identified. Based on these products, the possible oxidation pathway of sulfadiazine by Fenton's reagent was proposed. The toxicity evaluation of reaction solutions showed increased antimicrobial effects following the Fenton oxidation process. The results from this study suggest that the Fenton oxidation process could remove sulfadiazine, but also increase solution toxicity due to the presence of more toxic products.     

Optimization of photo-Fenton process parameters on carbofuran degradation using central composite design

Carbofuran, one of the most toxic and biorefractory carbamate compounds, is widely used in insecticides in Taiwan (9-18% of total insecticides production per year). In the present study, a central composite design experiment was used to study the effect of photo-Fenton treatment on carbofuran solution and to optimize the process variables such as carbofuran concentration (1-100 mg L(-1)), H(2)O(2) dosage rate (0.25-6 mg L(-1) min(-1)) and Fe(3+) dosage (1-50 mg L(-1)), which influenced the efficiency of carbofuran degradation and mineralization. The results indicated that all the variables investigated in this study had significant roles in the degradation and mineralization of carbofuran in solution. The carbofuran degradation and mineralization efficiencies were increased with increase in H(2)O(2) dosage rate and Fe(3+) dosage, and with decrease in carbofuran concentration. Furthermore, optimum values of both H(2)O(2) dosage rate and Fe(3+) dosage were found to shift to higher values as carbofuran concentration increased. Based on the model obtained in this study, optimum H(2)O(2) dosage rate and Fe(3+) dosage were found to be 4 mg L(-1) min(-1) and 20 mg L(-1), respectively, for 51 mg L(-1) of carbofuran concentration. Under these conditions, carbofuran was completely removed within 30 min and coupled with 78% mineralization at the end of experiment.     

基于CGE模型的环境灾害经济影响评估——以湖南雪灾为例

环境灾害(比如,气象灾害、荒漠化等)不仅仅造成直接损失(比如,厂房、设备破坏和粮食欠收等),而且会导致经济系统产业链中断,进而影响到区域经济的正常运行。本文以2008年南方雨雪冰冻灾害为例,基于CGE模型,评估交通中断对湖南省的间接经济影响。为刻画灾害冲击,CGE模型的改进包括:为反映灾害的区域性,将全国CGE模型降尺度为区域模型;为反映灾后应急情景,选择资本市场宏观闭合规则为资本在部门之间不流动;为反映货物周转量变化,在生产模块增加效率参数;为反映旅客周转量变化,选择劳动力宏观闭合规则为新古典闭合。研究表明:①对于重大环境灾害,间接经济损失甚至比直接损失大;②2008年雪灾引起的湖南省交通瘫痪,造成的间接经济损失为50.4亿元(以增加值表示),约占湖南省前两个月GDP的3%;③值得注意,由于产业之间相互关联,简单叠加各产业单独破坏造成的经济损失,往往夸大整个行业同时破坏造成的经济损失。     

土地政策参与宏观调控手段的完善

土地政策参与宏观调控是在特定经济背景下提出的.随着时间的推移和经济环境的变化,土地政策在h参与宏观调控的过程中也应做出相应的调整.列举了新经济背景下土地调控手段存在主次错位、刚性不强、缺乏有效配合等一系列问题,针对这些问题提出了在土地政策参与宏观调控的过程中要增加地土经济手段的运用、推动土地政策法律化和增强部门间协调配合等相关对策与建议.     

维生素和酮苷生产废水中难降解污染物的溯源研究

研究了维生素和酮苷生产过程中各生产工段排水的生物降解特性,评价了各生产工段对生产废水中难降解有机物的贡献率,追溯了可能的难降解特征污染物。结果表明,维生素生产废水中的难降解物质主要来自W1-1、W1-3、W1-5和W1-6生产工段,甲醛、丁烯酮、醛酮聚合物和吡啶可能是导致生产废水难降解的重要原因;酮苷生产废水中的难降解物质主要来自W2-1、W2-3和W2-7生产工段,氯代有机溶剂和苯环类物质可能是导致生产废水难降解的重要原因。建议根据具体生产工段排水的水质特征,有针对性地进行物化处理,提高废水可生化性。