Climate impact on social systems: the risk assessment approach

A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers.     

Occurrence of dissolved PAHs in the Jinsha River (Panzhihua)--upper reaches of the Yangtze River,Southwest China

16 priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in water samples from the Jinsha River (Panzhihua part), Southwest China. Total dissolved PAH concentrations varied from 21.89 microg l(-1) to 382.8 microg l(-1). It was found that the concentration of PAHs decreased along the flow direction due to the higher density distribution of coal chemical industry in the upstream of our study rivers. The pollution levels in our study area are significantly higher than previously reported values in other waters both in China and other countries. The predominance of benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene was clearly observed in all water samples. On average these two compounds accounted for 98.3% of the total dissolved PAH concentration in water. The results showed the positive correlations among total dissolved PAHs, benzo[k]fluoranthene and indeno[1,2,3-cd]pyrene, which suggested that these two predominant PAHs have similar source and environmental behaviors in our study area. When compared with the survey results of organic micropollutants two decades ago, it was found that hydrocarbon pollution both predominated and even increased with the development of coal chemical industry in this area during the past 20 years. The results therefore provide important information on the current contamination status of a key industrial city in China, and points to the need for urgent action to investigate the relationship between the PAH composition and concentration in water from the Jinsha River and the wastewater discharge from coal chemical industry, and to identify the source, transport pathway and fate of PAHs in the area. It should then be necessary to adopt appropriate and instant measures to control the pollution around this area.     

浅谈小型餐饮服务业排污申报登记

简述了小型餐饮服务业的特点，指出排污申报登记制度落实难、废水中各污染物排放量核定难及申报登记表设计欠合理是小型餐饮服务业在排污申报登记中存在的主要问题。提出，应加大宣传力度，进一步提高餐饮服务业业主以及广大公民的环保意识；制定较合理的排污量核算系数，修订申报内容；实行《排污申报登记注册证》制度，强化执法力度，以促进小型餐饮服务业全面实施排污申报登记制度。     

我国热带地区胶—茶—鸡农林复合系统物质循环研究

以海南省文昌市典型的胶—茶—鸡农林复合模式为研究对象 ,以单作胶园、胶茶间作园为对照 ,采用定量研究与定性分析相结合的方法 ,研究其物质循环规律。结果表明 ,胶—茶—鸡农林复合系统的氮、磷输入、输出量最大 ,系统外物质投入率比另两系统明显减少 ,系统内养分循环量增加 ,因此 ,该系统具有较合理的物质循环结构。     

锑的淡水水质基准及其对我国水质标准的启示

针对我国锑水生生物水质基准缺乏的问题，收集筛选了锑对淡水水生生物的急性和慢性毒性数据，使用评价因子法、毒性百分数排序法和物种敏感度分布法分别推导我国锑的淡水水质基准，通过综合分析和比较，选择物种敏感度分布法推导的急性和慢性的水质基准值（466.62μg/L和88.71μg/L）作为最终的基准推荐值.通过与国内外现有锑相关水质标准进行比较，提出在我国相关水质标准修订中分别制定保护水生生物和人体健康水质标准的建议，避免水质标准对水生生物的"过保护"问题.     

云南地热资源──以腾冲地区为重点进行解剖

位于中国西南部的云南省,具有丰富的地热资源。这些地热资源大致可分为三类：①高温水热系统;②中-低温水热系统;③“隐伏型”地热资源。根据地热背景（大地构造和热流）和热显示,本研究首先对各构造单元中的地热资源进行了评价,然后重点分析了腾冲地热区的地热资源及其热源和水源的成因。研究结果表明．腾冲地热田形成于板块的碰撞带,其丰富的高温水热系统地热资源的主要形成机制是：①高温热能来自地幔以及地壳中的熔融岩浆囊;②丰富的大气降水补给──大气降水通过断层（特别是活断层）的循环并与少量来自地球内部的水混合。本文提供的资料表明,腾冲地热资源具有开发利用价值──发电和发展旅游业,在东川一个旧一线（东经103°20′）以西地区,中─低温地热资源一般钻进深度不到1000m就能开发出来。     

水霉科真菌在北京地区不同污染水体中的分布和数量变化

对北京地区水霉科真菌在不同污染水体中分布和数量变化的调查研究表明,水霉科游动孢子在水体中的数量随水体污染程度的变化而不同:一般在净水中较少,在轻度污染至中度污染的水体中明显增多,污染加重时逐渐下降,在重污染区明显减少,在近于毒污染的水体中则几乎绝迹.可见水霉科真菌在不同污染水体中的分布和数量变化具有一定的规律性,将其用作对水体进行综合评价的一项生物指标的可行性值得进一步研究.     

空气中SO2,PM2.5浓度水平与居民每日门诊就诊人次的动态研究

通过对１９９５年重庆渝中区空气中ＳＯ２、ＰＭ２．５浓度水平与居民每日就诊人数的动态观察发现：居民内科各月门认及诊人次按病种分类显示，慢性阻塞性肺部疾病（ＣＯＰＤ）在空气ＳＯ２、ＰＭ２．５空气浓度水平出现峰值的一月份呈现高峰；各年龄组四大类疾病的延迟七日的门诊女性就认人次中，ＣＯＰＤ和循环系统疾病的就诊人次与ＳＯ２、ＰＭ２．５浓度相关系数在０．４－０．７之间，有较为密切的关系。ＣＯＰＤ的时间聚集性分     

抚顺市地表水系特征与污染源分析

掌握了解水系和水污染源状况，以便更好地控制水污染、保护水环境、合理利用水资源。发展工农业生产等具有重要战略意义。对抚顺市水系和水污染源进行了调查，结果表明：发源于抚顺市的河流5条，分别属于辽河水系、鸭绿江水系和黑龙江水系。水库120座，工业废水排放总量为4752．0975t／a。     

硫酸法钛白生产水洗工序清洁生产技术初探

通过开展水洗工段用水审计并试验了温度、偏钛酸ξ电位和漂白工艺对水洗的影响效果，从实践和理论上探讨了为其提高钛白质量改进水洗工艺的清洁生产方案的可行性和合理性。