Robust decision making, a growing approach to infrastructure planning under climate change uncertainty, aims to evaluate infrastructure performance across a wide range of possible conditions and identify the most robust strategies and designs. Robust decision making seeks to find potential weaknesses in systems in order to gird these through a combination of policy, infrastructure, and, in some cases, resilient or recovery strategies. A system can be explored by simulating many combinations of uncertain climatic and economic parameters; statistical clustering can identify parameter thresholds that lead to unacceptable performance. Often, however, uncertain variables are correlated, complicating the robustness analysis and casting doubt upon the thresholds identified. Here, we evaluate the impact of ordinary, hidden correlations in uncertainty parameters that drive simulation in robust decision making. We induced correlations between temperature and key climatic and economic parameters. We tested correlations of 0%, 30%, 60%, and 90% between temperature and the absolute value of precipitation, coefficient of variation, and downward surface solar radiation, and negative correlations between temperature and net variable benefit and the discount rate. We used a calibrated simulation model of a dam system regulating Lake Tana, Ethiopia, to compute the agricultural supply and net present value of the reservoirs. As the correlation strength increased, the results converged in a smaller region. We found that strong correlations depressed robustness scores of lower-performing alternatives and conversely increased results of the higher-performing alternatives. As the correlations increased in favorable alternatives, the failure thresholds became more extreme, speciously suggesting that only intense changes would result in poor performance. This overall analysis highlights the degree to which correlations of an interconnected climatic and economic system can impact outcomes of robust decision making and suggests methods to avoid confounding results.
We investigated the accumulation and effects of cyanobacterial crude extract(CCE)containing microcystins(MCs) on the edible clam Corbicula leana P. Toxic effects were evaluated through the activity of antioxidant and detoxification enzymes: catalase(CAT),superoxide dismutase(SOD), and glutathione-S-transferases(GSTs) from gills, foot, mantle and remaining soft tissues. Clams were exposed to CCE containing 400 μg MC-LReq/L for10 days and were then kept in toxin-free water for 5 days. Clam accumulated MCs(up to 3.41 ± 0.63 μg/g dry weight(DW) of unbound MC and 0.31 ± 0.013 μg/g DW of covalently bound MC). Detoxification and antioxidant enzymes in different organs responded differently to CCE during the experiment. The activity of SOD, CAT, and GST in the gills and mantle increased in MC-treated clams. In contrast, CAT and GST activity was significantly inhibited in the foot and mostly only slightly changed in the remaining tissues. The responses of biotransformation, antioxidant enzyme activity to CCE and the fast elimination of MCs during depuration help to explain how the clam can survive for long periods(over a week) during the decay of toxic cyanobacterial blooms in nature. 相似文献
