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91.
Chris J. Matthews David B. Newton Roger D. Braddock Bofu Yu 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(1):27-41
Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The
New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects)
and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of
two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various
inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and
Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex
processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness
of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition
System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the
sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss
the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring
the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing
these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method
estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown
that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different
metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock. 相似文献
92.
Richard A. Sims Kenneth A. Baldwin H. Maureen Kershaw Yonghe Wang 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1996,39(1-3):471-484
Selected data on site, vegetation cover, and soil, including soil moisture regime (SMR), were collected from 2 167 field plots in northwestern Ontario, Canada. SMR provides an estimate of an averaged, annualized soil moisture supply throughout a complete vegetation cycle. SMR is based upon a relative scale that subjectively ranks sites from , 0, and 1 through 9 along a soil moisture continuum which relates to a dry to wet gradient. SMR may be generally correlated to tree growth, stand composition, degree of competition, nutrient availability and overall site quality.This paper reports on relationships between SMR and major tree species. Results highlight relationships between SMR class and the broad ecological ranges of several tree species. In northwestern Ontario, the determination of SMR can help resource managers to better understand the ecology of boreal sites. 相似文献
93.
94.
Yu. A. Anokhin 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1988,11(3):315-325
The global cycles of man-produced pollutants entering the natural environment are reflected in changes of pollutant cycles, even in background regions.The system of mathematical balance simulation models of inorganic pollutant distribution and circulation (some heavy metals and pesticides included in the priority list for integrated background monitoring) has been developed for the Lake Baikal drainage basin. The system consists of the following units: (1) inventory and classification of regional sources of pollutants entering the atmosphere, natural waters and soils; (2) computation of the global atmospheric transfer and depositions; (3) regional spreading with atmospheric fluxes and deposition onto the underlying surfaces; (4) transport with waterflows feeding Lake Baikal; (5) transport with the lake currents and balance in the lake.The models developed have enabled improvement of existing programmes and systems of observations, in particular to substantiate the large-scale snow sampling and analysis network, and to develop the programme of integrated surveys of the state of Lake Baikal. Since 1981 these actions have been included in the operational network observations within the Lake Baikal Monitoring System. 相似文献
95.
Wuncheng Wang 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1993,24(3):257-265
Paper substrate, especially circular filter paper placed inside a Petri dish, has long been used for the plant seed toxicity test (PSTT). Although this method is simple and inexpensive, recent evidence indicates that it gives results that are significantly different from those obtained using a method that does not involve paper, especially when testing metal cations. The study compared PSTT using three methods: filter paper, Growth Pouch-TM, and seed tray. The Growth Pouch-TM is a commercially available device. The seed tray is a newly designed plastic receptacle placed inside a Petri dish. The results of the Growth Pouch-TM method showed no toxic effects on rice for Ag up to 40 mg L–1 and Cd up to 20 mg L–1. Using the seed tray method, IC50 (50% inhibitory effect concentration) values were 0.55 and 1.4 mg L–1 for Ag and Cd, respectively. Although results of filter paper and seed tray methods were nearly identical for NaF, Cr(VI), and phenol, the toxicities of cations Ag and Cd were reduced by using the filter paper method; IC50 values were 22 and 18 mg L–1, respectively. The results clearly indicate that paper substrate is not advisable for PSTT. 相似文献
96.
Using improved neural network model to analyze RSP,NOx and NO2 levels in urban air in Mong Kok,Hong Kong 总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4
As the health impact of air pollutants existing in ambient addresses much attention in recent years, forecasting of airpollutant parameters becomes an important and popular topic inenvironmental science. Airborne pollution is a serious, and willbe a major problem in Hong Kong within the next few years. InHong Kong, Respirable Suspended Particulate (RSP) and NitrogenOxides NOx and NO2 are major air pollutants due to thedominant diesel fuel usage by public transportation and heavyvehicles. Hence, the investigation and prediction of the influence and the tendency of these pollutants are ofsignificance to public and the city image. The multi-layerperceptron (MLP) neural network is regarded as a reliable andcost-effective method to achieve such tasks. The works presentedhere involve developing an improved neural network model, whichcombines the principal component analysis (PCA) technique and theradial basis function (RBF) network, and forecasting thepollutant levels and tendencies based in the recorded data. Inthe study, the PCA is firstly used to reduce and orthogonalizethe original input variables (data), these treated variables arethen used as new input vectors in RBF neural network modelestablished for forecasting the pollutant tendencies. Comparingwith the general neural network models, the proposed modelpossesses simpler network architecture, faster training speed,and more satisfactory predicting performance. This improvedmodel is evaluated by using hourly time series of RSP, NOx and NO2 concentrations collected at Mong Kok Roadside Gaseous Monitory Station in Hong Kong during the year 2000. By comparing the predicted RSP, NOx and NO2 concentrationswith the actual data of these pollutants recorded at the monitorystation, the effectiveness of the proposed model has been proven.Therefore, in authors' opinion, the model presented in the paper is a potential tool in forecasting air quality parameters and hasadvantages over the traditional neural network methods. 相似文献
97.
Yu.M. Svirezhev W. von Bloh H.-J. Schellnhuber 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》1999,4(4):287-294
A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such events is estimated. The estimation considers both the inherent stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather), a so-called statistical weather generator is used. One interesting finding is that the 3% risk level remains constant up to 1.0–1.1°C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach is able to separate two problems: (i) assessment of global change impact, and (ii) decision making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. 相似文献
98.
工作场所空气中硫酸雾(SO3)的分析 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
王连弟 《环境监测管理与技术》1997,9(3):36-37
采用碘量法测定工作场所空气中的三氧化硫及硫酸雾,三氧化硫及硫酸雾经中性水吸收后与碘化钾和碘酸钾反应,析出的碘与淀粉指示剂作用产生蓝色,进行比色测定。 相似文献
99.
将有时序多目标决策方法应用于地面水环境质量优势的比较,介绍了决策方法的原理和评价步骤。实例分析表明该方法计算过程简便,分辨率高,排序结果与实际环境质量状况相符合。 相似文献
100.
发光细菌法评价工业废水的毒性 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
用发光细菌测定法估算了两城市污水对河道水体污染的分担率,评价了工厂排放废水的毒性,并据此确定了污染源监督管理中应优先治理的工厂(车间)废水。 相似文献