基本原理,概念及评估办法

引言人们普遍认为,全球气候变暖在北极将进一步放大,由于平流层臭氧修复的可能延误,紫外线B(UV-B)辐射可能继续增加,北极环境及其居民可能特别易受这类环境变化的影响.上述共识促进了对气候变化影响的国际评估工作.北极气候影响评估(ACIA)是一项为时4年的研究,结果出版了一篇重要的科研报告[1]并产生了其他的成果.在本文以及本期Ambio专刊下面的文章中,我们提供了报告中针对北极陆地生态系统(从树线群落交错带到极地荒漠)的部分研究成果.     

气候变化与紫外线B辐射对北极苔原和极地荒漠生态系统的影响重要发现和扩展总结

引言 北极已成为对当前气候波动和预计的全球变暖增强的影响进行评估的重要地区.原因有以下几个方面:①在过去几十年中北极经历了大幅度的变暖过程(温度平均升高3℃,而在许多地区温度升高了4～5℃);②气候预测表明气候呈现持续变暖趋势,在2080年之前年平均气温升高4～5℃;③近期的气候变暖正在影响北极的环境和经济,这些影响还会加大,并对生活方式、文化及生态系统造成影响;④北极的变化可能会影响到地球上的其它地区.     

Nonlinearities in mathematical ecology: Phenomena and models: Would we live in Volterra's world?

Presented is a critical survey of canonical nonlinear models in theoretical population ecology, namely single-species population, prey–predator, competition, migration within a metapopulation, and trophic chains. Various nonlinear effects, like hysteresis, structural instability, dissipative structures, dynamic chaos, etc., do exist in these models, but the problem how to detect these phenomena in real ecosystems is not yet solved. In the mathematics of nonlinear models, the central question is whether the simplest, i.e., Volterra-type, nonlinearity is sufficient to reproduce a variety of nonlinear phenomena in a given model or we need a more sophisticated formalism. Examples are considered where the Volterra models fail. Although fundamental physical principles, like, e.g., the mass conservation law, should work in ecology too, the ecological origin of the models often causes mathematical effects which are distinct from those in theoretical physics. For example, the trophic-chain model does reveal a kind of chaotic behaviour, but the “ecological strange attractor” occupies an intermediate position between Lorenz's and Feigenbaum's attractors; moreover, the phase volume of our system contracts, hence the system is dissipative (like a Lorenz's one) in spite of its matter conservation property. Nevertheless, when applied properly, physical concepts, like, e.g., the thermodynamic notion of exergy, give better insight both to the patterns of nonlinear ecosystem behaviour and to comparison of the patterns.     

The value of patches of intertidal seagrass to prawns depends on their proximity to mangroves

Penaeid prawns were sampled with a small seine net to test whether catches of postlarvae and juveniles in seagrass were affected by the distance of the seagrass (mainly Zostera capricorni) from mangroves and the density of the seagrass in a subtropical marine embayment. Sampling was replicated on the western and eastern sides of Moreton Bay, Queensland, Australia. Information on catches was combined with broad-scale spatial information on the distribution of habitats to estimate the contribution of four different categories of habitat (proximal dense seagrass, distal dense seagrass, proximal sparse seagrass, distal sparse seagrass) to the overall population of small prawns in these regions of Moreton Bay. The abundance of Penaeus plebejus and Metapenaeus bennettae was significantly and consistently greater in dense seagrass proximal to mangroves than in other types of habitat. Additionally, sparse seagrass close to mangroves supported more of these species than dense seagrass farther away, indicating that the role of spatial arrangement of habitats was more important than the effects of structural complexity alone. In contrast, the abundance of P. esculentus tended to be greatest in sparse seagrass distal from mangroves compared with the other habitats. The scaling up of the results from different seagrass types suggests that proximal seagrass beds on both sides of Moreton Bay provide by far the greatest contribution of juvenile M. bennettae and P. plebejus to the overall populations in the Bay.Communicated by M.S. Johnson, Crawley     

Chemical contamination of the Rybinsk Reservoir, northwest Russia: relationship between liver polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) content and health indicators in bream (Abramis brama)

The Rybinsk Reservoir (Russia) is the largest artificial waterbody in Europe (4550 km2) and provides drinking water for population of the cities located along the coast line. Industrialization in Cherepovets at the northeastern portion of the reservoir, including one of the largest metallurgical facilities in Europe, has resulted in chemical contamination of the reservoir. The extent of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) contamination in bream liver, a common fish species, taken from six locations in the Rybinsk Reservoir and Volga River, and biochemical and morphometric biomarkers of fish health were investigated. Liver PCB concentrations ranged from non-detected to 3.4 microg/g wet wt of liver, with the greatest concentrations found in fish taken near the industrialized area in Sheksna Reach of Rybinsk Reservoir. The source of the bream contamination is the PCB pollution of bottom organisms and sediments conditioned with industrialization facilities of Cherepovets. The patterns of the PCB congeners in the livers of bream taken near Cherepovets were similar at all of the stations that were sampled around the reservoir and Volga River. Among the common fish health biomarkers used only liver total ChE activity and liver-somatic index in bream near Cherepovets can reflect environmental pollution. Other morphometric (FCF, Clark's condition factors, and spleen-somatic index) and biochemical (protein content and acetylcholinesterase activity in the brain) biomarkers related with fish health varied among locations, but were not correlated to the concentrations of PCBs in the bream livers.     

Spatially mixed crops to control the stratified dispersal of airborne fungal diseases

Intraspecific crop diversification is thought to be a possible solution to the disease susceptibility of monocultured crops. We modelled the stratified dispersal of an airborne pathogen population in order to identify the spatial patterns of cultivar mixtures that could slow epidemic spread driven by dual dispersal mechanisms acting over both short and long distances. We developed a model to simulate the propagation of a fungal disease in a 2D field, including a reaction-diffusion model for short-distance disease dispersal, and a stochastic model for long-distance dispersal. The model was fitted to data for the spatio-temporal spread of faba bean rust (caused by Uromyces viciae-fabae) through a discontinuous field. The model was used to compare the effectiveness of eight different planting patterns of cultivar mixtures against a disease spread by short-distance and stratified dispersal. Our combined modelling approach provides a reasonably good fit with the observed data for the spread of faba bean rust. Similar predictive power could be expected for the management of resource-mediated invasions by other airborne fungi. If a disease spreads by short-distance dispersal, random mixtures can be used to slow the epidemic spread, since their spatial irregularity creates a natural barrier to the progression of a smooth epidemic wave. In the context of stratified dispersal, heterogeneous patterns should be used that include a minimum distance between susceptible units, which decreases the probability of infection by long-distance spore dispersal. We provide a simple framework for modelling the stratified dispersal of disease in a diversified crop. The model suggests that the spatial arrangement of components in cultivar mixtures has to accord with the dispersal characteristics of the pathogen in order to increase the efficiency of diversification strategies in agro-ecosystems and forestry. It can be applied in low input agriculture to manage pathogen invasion by intercropping and cultivar mixtures, and to design sustainable systems of land use.