Risk-based standards: integrating top–down and bottom–up approaches

In response to rapidly changing threats posed to increasingly complex socio-technical systems, many in the government and private sector have called for protection through risk-based standards. However, given the nature of these dynamic and uncertain threats, traditional risk assessment techniques may not be sufficient. Instead, there is a critical need for an integrated approach in which decision analytic techniques are used to assess evidence-based data with the values and preferences of decision makers. We point to three examples in the fields of nuclear power regulation, nanotechnology, and cybersecurity, where risk-based approaches (bottom–up) have been combined with decision analysis (top–down) to guide decision makers toward risk management policies that manifest both the best available evidence and the plurality of values within a society.     

Mobility of dimethoate residues from spring broccoli field

Dimethoate [O, O-dimethyl-S-(N-methylcarbamoyl-methyl) phosphorodithioate] is a broad-spectrum systemic insecticide currently used worldwide and on many vegetables in Kentucky. Dimethoate is a hydrophilic compound (log KOW = 0.7) and has the potential of offsite movement from the application site into runoff and infiltration water. The dissipation patterns of dimethoate residues were studied on spring broccoli leaves and heads under field conditions. Following foliar application of Dimethoate 4E on broccoli foliage at the rate of 0.47 L acre(-1), dimethoate residues were monitored in soil, runoff water collected down the land slope, and in infiltration water collected from the vadose zone. The study was conducted on a Lowell silty loam soil (pH 6.9) planted with broccoli under three soil management practices: (i) soil mixed with municipal sewage sludge, (ii) soil mixed with yard waste compost, and (iii) no-mulch rototilled bare soil. The main objective of this investigation was to study the effect of mixing native soil with municipal sewage sludge or yard waste compost, having considerable amounts of organic matter, on off-site movement of dimethoate residues into runoff and infiltration water following spring rainfall. The initial deposits of dimethoate were 6.2 and 21.4 micro g g(-1) on broccoli heads and leaves, respectively. These residues dissipated rapidly and fell below the maximum residue limit of 2 micro g g(-1) on the heads and leaves after 10 and 14 d, respectively, with half-lives of 5.7 d on broccoli heads and 3.9 d on the leaves. Dimethoate residues detected in top 15 cm of soil (due to droplet drift and wash off residues from broccoli foliage) one day (d) following spraying, were 30.5 ng g(-1) dry soil in the sewage sludge treatment, and 46.1 and 134.5 ng g(-1) dry soil in the yard waste and no mulch treatments, respectively. Water infiltration was greater from yard waste compost treatment than from no mulch treatment, however concentrations of dimethoate in the vadose zone of the three soil treatments did not differ.     

Implications of maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein elevation caused by transabdominal and transcervical CVS

Of 2882 women allocated to either transabdominal CVS (TA) or transcervical CVS (TC) at two large obstetric centres in Denmark, 2707 had blood samples drawn before and 30 min after CVS for maternal serum-alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP) measurement. 2535 of these women had cytogenetically normal pregnancies and 2091 of them went on to have samples drawn at the 18–20 week follow-up. Post-procedure MSAFP values were correlated to the biopsy method used, with mean MSAFP values significantly higher after TA than TC, 33 and 15 kU/l, respectively (P<0·001). Following TA procedures, 18 per cent of cases had feto-maternal transfusion higher than 0·1 ml; this occurred in only 5 per cent of TC cases. MSAFP levels were associated with spontaneous fetal loss in the TA group but not in the TC group. TC, however, was followed by more losses than TA. The post-CVS MSAFP value was positively correlated with the amount of villi aspirated. The difference in post-procedure elevation in MSAFP 30 min later (average 18 kU/l higher for TA than for TC) was not reflected in raised levels at the 18–20 week follow-up. Study medians at mid-trimester did not differ from reference group medians established from a group of singleton pregnancies with sonographically determined gestational age who did not experience invasive procedures and delivered normal infants. Our findings suggest that CVS does not compromise mid-trimester MSAFP for screening for neural tube defects (NTDs). Extremely high mid-trimester MSAFP values in the TC group could predict imminent loss.     

Suppressed recovery of plant community composition and biodiversity on dredged fill of a hurricane-induced inlet through a barrier island

In September 2003, Hurricane Isabel created an inlet over 500 m wide and 10 m deep that connected the Atlantic Ocean and Pamlico Sound. This breach was subsequently filled with sediments dredged from the adjacent sound. The purpose of this study was to determine if the barrier island terrestrial plant communities were naturally re-establishing through primary succession. In 2006–2008, we compared plant communities, soil carbon and nitrogen, and Aeolian transport of sediments in undisturbed back-dunes, undisturbed shrub thickets, putative back-dunes, and putative shrub thickets. We found that species richness and evenness were low on the filled area relative to adjacent plant communities that had persisted through the storm. Plants on the filled area were almost entirely limited to a band of primarily Spartina patens found at the margin of the sound and there were no signs of establishing the typical zonation of back dune grasses, shrubs, and salt marsh. Evaluation of soil quality suggests that nutrients and organic material are not limiting recovery. Aeolian transport, however, was demonstrably higher across the filled area, where no dense stands of taller plants buffered the airflow. Plant re-establishment is suppressed by wind erosion inhibiting deposition of seeds. Recovery of the site will likely depend on the rhizomatous spread of S. patens from the sound shore. S. patens can then potentially facilitate the colonization of other species by buffering the wind and trapping seeds of other plants. Ironically, this slow recovery may benefit federally threatened bird species that require sparse vegetation for nesting success.     

Designing and Implementing a Network for Sensing Water Quality and Hydrology across Mountain to Urban Transitions

Water resources are increasingly impacted by growing human populations, land use, and climate changes, and complex interactions among biophysical processes. In an effort to better understand these factors in semiarid northern Utah, United States, we created a real‐time observatory consisting of sensors deployed at aquatic and terrestrial stations to monitor water quality, water inputs, and outputs along mountain to urban gradients. The Gradients Along Mountain to Urban Transitions (GAMUT) monitoring network spans three watersheds with similar climates and streams fed by mountain winter‐derived precipitation, but that differ in urbanization level, land use, and biophysical characteristics. The aquatic monitoring stations in the GAMUT network include sensors to measure chemical (dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, pH, nitrate, and dissolved organic matter), physical (stage, temperature, and turbidity), and biological components (chlorophyll‐a and phycocyanin). We present the logistics of designing, implementing, and maintaining the network; quality assurance and control of numerous, large datasets; and data acquisition, dissemination, and visualization. Data from GAMUT reveal spatial differences in water quality due to urbanization and built infrastructure; capture rapid temporal changes in water quality due to anthropogenic activity; and identify changes in biological structure, each of which are demonstrated via case study datasets.     

Analyzing interdependent impacts of resource sustainability

Quantifying the impact of the shortage of a scarce resource requires a systemic account of the interdependent nature of several industry and infrastructure sectors that rely either directly or indirectly on that resource. An ability to quickly and easily quantify such an impact provides policymakers with a useful measure of the efficacy of discovering, designing, or developing a sustainable alternative. Discussed in this paper is a methodological approach for measuring the broader interdependent impacts of a resource shortage. The dynamic inoperability input–output model (DIIM) is used to illustrate both the economic effects of resource shortages over a period of time and the time-dependent recovery of industry sectors. Extensions to the DIIM are introduced to produce an accessible tool for policymakers and industry decision makers. Case studies using publicly available data illustrate the usefulness of the model for describing local oil production shortages and global rare earth metals supply shortages, highlighting the industries that will need to adapt to changes in resource availability, as well as those industries that will remain relatively unaffected. Above all, the model presented in this paper is an effective means of communicating the impact and importance of resource shortages to assist in the design and development of a sustainable future.     

Design and risk assessment tool for vegetative treatment areas receiving agricultural wastewater: Preliminary results

Vegetative treatment areas (VTAs) are commonly being used as an alternative method of agricultural process wastewater treatment. However, it is also apparent that to completely prevent discharge of pollutants to the surrounding environment, settling of particulates and bound constituents from overland flow through VTAs is not sufficient. For effective remediation of dissolved agricultural pollutants, VTAs must infiltrate incoming wastewater. A simple water balance model for predicting VTA soil saturation and surface discharge in landscapes characterized by sloping terrain and a shallow restrictive layer is presented and discussed. The model accounts for the cumulative effect of successive rainfall events and wastewater input on soil moisture status and depth to water table. Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies ranged from 0.65 to 0.81 for modeled and observed water table elevations after calibration of saturated hydraulic conductivity. Precipitation data from relatively low, average, and high annual rainfall years were used with soil, site, and contributing area data from an example VTA for simulations and comparisons. Model sensitivity to VTA width and contributing area (i.e. barnyard, feedlot, silage bunker, etc.) curve number was also investigated. Results of this analysis indicate that VTAs should be located on steeper slopes with deeper, more-permeable soils, which effectively lowers the shallow water table. In sloping landscapes (>2%), this model provides practitioners an easy-to-use VTA design and/or risk assessment tool that is more hydrological process-based than current methods.     

Value chain for next-generation biofuels: resilience and sustainability of the product life cycle

Multiple factors including climate change, price uncertainties, and geopolitical instability have prompted many industries to investigate the feasibility of replacing traditional petroleum-based fuels with biofuel alternatives. However, to make this transition successful, these new biofuels must be environmentally sustainable and the necessary support infrastructure must be in place to make the production, distribution, and storage of these biofuels technologically feasible and cost effective. Developing a value chain, spanning from feedstock production to distribution to end users, requires garnering buy-in from multiple stakeholders by demonstrating environmental, economic, and social benefits and incentives. Two critical factors are the environmental benefits achieved from the use of the biofuel technology and the degree of resilience of the value chain to emergent conditions to ensure steady supply to consumers. Moreover, different biofuel pathways have different costs, benefits, and risks which must be compared. In this paper, we describe how environmental sustainability can be modeled using life cycle assessment (LCA) and how the resilience of value chain initiatives can be modeled using a scenario-based decision model. We then describe how sustainability and resilience assessments can be integrated in an iterative, anticipatory LCA framework. These assessments can be used as the basis for a business case for various investments, as well as a means for promoting responsible innovations, with the aviation industry used as a case study.