Uncertainty analysis of emission estimates in the RAINS integrated assessment model

Uncertainty is a critical issue for all models that attempt to quantify the necessary emission reductions that are required to meet environmental quality targets. This paper discusses a methodology specifically developed to analyse the uncertainties in the emission estimates with the regional air pollution information and simulation (RAINS) integrated assessment model, considering the uncertainties in the model parameters themselves. Overall, it was found that a typical range of uncertainties for modeled national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and ammonia in Europe lies between 10 and 30%. In general, the uncertainties are strongly dependent on the potential for error compensation. This compensation potential is larger (and uncertainties are smaller) if calculated emissions are composed of a larger number of equal-sized source categories, where the errors in input parameters are not correlated with each other. Thus, estimates of the national total emissions are generally more certain than estimates of sectoral emissions. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the uncertainty in input parameters showed that the actual uncertainties are critically influenced by the specific situation (pollutant, year, country). However, the emission factor is an important contributor to the uncertainty in estimates of historical emissions, while uncertainty in the activity data dominates the future estimates.     

Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective1

Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W., 2011. Nonstationarity in Water Resources – Central European Perspective. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(3): 550‐562. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00549.x Abstract: Nonstationarity in variables describing water quantity and water quality characteristics is reviewed, and an attempt to interpret nonstationary behavior is made with particular reference to the Central European region. Nonstationarity in water‐related variables results from several nonclimatic and climatic factors. Albeit evidence of climate change in Central Europe is clear, anthropogenic nonclimatic change, such as land‐use or land‐cover changes, water engineering measures, and in‐catchment water management play important roles. Systemic socioeconomic and political changes are the main factors responsible for the observed change in water quality in the region. The observed climate change in the Central European region has not been dramatic enough to persuade the water management community that changes of standards, criteria, and evaluation procedures should be made. Projections for the future largely differ between models and scenarios, hence information obtained from climate models is found too vague to be used. However, the water management community shows interest in climate change observations, projections, and impact assessments. Numerous hydrological research projects to tackle nonstationarity have been undertaken in the region. Also important acts of legislation, such as the European Union’s Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive can be regarded in the context of nonstationarity of water‐related variables.     

Ammonia abatement and its impact on emissions of nitrous oxide and methane—Part 2: application for Europe

Agriculture is an important source of NH₃, which contributes to acidification and eutrophication, as well as emissions of the greenhouse gases CH₄ and N₂O. Because of their common sources, emission reduction measures for one of these gases may affect emissions of others. These interrelations are often ignored in policy making. This study presents an analysis of the effects of measures to reduce NH₃ emissions on emissions of N₂O and CH₄ from agriculture in Europe. The analysis combines information from the NH₃ module of the Regional Air pollution INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model for Europe with the IPCC method for national greenhouse gas inventories. The IPCC method for estimating agricultural emissions of N₂O and CH₄ is adjusted in order to use it in combination with the RAINS database for the European agricultural sector. As an example, we applied the adjusted method to the agricultural sector in the Netherlands and found that application of several NH₃ abatement options may result in a substantial increase in N₂O emissions while the effect on CH₄ emissions is relatively small. In Part 2 of this paper we focus on the resulting emissions for all European countries for 1990 and 2010.     

The modal low frequency noise of an elastically supported circular plate.

The modal low frequency noise generated by a vibrating elastically supported circular plate embedded into a flat infinite baffle has been examined. The main aim of this study is the analysis of the radiation efficiency. Low frequency approximated formulas have been presented. They are valid for all the limiting boundary conditions of the plate with its edge clamped, guided, simply supported or free as well as for all the intermediate axisymmetric boundary configurations. The formulas are expressed in the elementary form, useful for numerical computations. They are a generalization of some earlier published results. First, they are valid for axisymmetric and asymmetric modes since both kinds of modes play an important role in the low frequency range. Second, a single formula for the radiation efficiency, valid for all the axisymmetric boundary configurations, has been proposed. A numerical example for the sound power radiation has been given for some hatchway covers mounted on a ship deck.     

Influence of anthropogenic transformations of river bed on plant and macrozoobenthos communities

This study describes the influence of urban area on plant communities and benthic invertebrates inhabiting the S?upia River (northern Poland). Ten plant communities and 37 macrozoobenthos taxa were determined during four seasonal samplings at 25 sampling sites (October 2005 and January, April, and August 2006). The obtained data set was statistically evaluated in order to reveal the influence of anthropogenic transformations on the investigated communities against the background of other abiotic factors. Multivariate regression tree (MRT) method was used for vegetation, while for benthic fauna, both MRT and artificial neural network (ANN) methods were applied. The following explanatory variables were used: season, water temperature, and salinity; location of a sampling site; degree of human impact on the riverbed; microhabitat; and substrate type. MRT analyses showed significant differences in plant community structure depending on the location of a sampling site, indicating the influence of anthropogenic pressure, while macrozoobenthos composition differed significantly only between seasons. The overall ANN model proved the importance of type and location of a sampling site for the approximation of benthic fauna density. Additionally, influence of the explanatory variables on the consecutive macrozoobenthos taxa was analyzed on the basis of separate ANN.     

An evaluation of selected chemical,biochemical, and biological parameters of soil enriched with vermicompost

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The aim of this study was to assess the changes in chemical and microbial properties and enzymatic activity of soil enriched with vermicompost derived...     

High-resolution spatial distribution and associated uncertainties of greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - Agricultural activity plays a significant role in the atmospheric carbon balance as a source and sink of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has...     

The applicability of compost,zeolite and calcium oxide in assisted remediation of acidic soil contaminated with Cr(III) and Cr(VI)

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - The effect of soil amendments, i.e., compost, zeolite, and calcium oxide, on the chemical properties of soil contaminated with Cr(III) and Cr(VI) and...     

A vibroacoustic model of selected human larynx diseases.

With the present development of digital registration and methods for processing speech it is possible to make effective objective acoustic diagnostics for medical purposes. These methods are useful as all pathologies and diseases of the human vocal tract influence the quality of a patient's speech signal. Diagnostics of the voice organ can be defined as an unambiguous recognition of the current condition of a specific voice source. Such recognition is based on an evaluation of essential acoustic parameters of the speech signal. This requires creating a vibroacoustic model of selected deformations of Polish speech in relation to specific human larynx diseases. An analysis of speech and parameter mapping in 29-dimensional space is reviewed in this study. Speech parameters were extracted in time, frequency and cepstral (quefrency) domains resulting in diagrams that qualified symptoms and conditions of selected human larynx diseases. The paper presents graphically selected human larynx diseases.     

Variation in oxidative stress and photochemical activity in Arabidopsis thaliana leaves subjected to cadmium and excess copper in the presence or absence of jasmonate and ascorbate

We have presented changes in the photosynthetic apparatus activity of Arabidopsis thaliana plants occurring within 15-144 h of 100 microM Cu or Cd action with regard to jasmonate (JA) as well as expression of the oxidative stress and non-enzymic defense mechanisms. The inhibitory effect of both heavy metals related to developing dissipative processes and lipid peroxide formation was expressed in dark-adapted state after the longest time as a decrease in potential quantum yield of PSII. In dark- and light-adapted state the heavy metals affected the enzymic phase of photosynthesis already from the 15th hour, which was related to the lipid peroxide formation. Photochemical quenching decrease was induced after 48th hour and did not show a close correlation with the JA pathway. Blockade of endogenously formed JA by propyl gallate decreased the effect of Cu and Cd on both the whole photosynthetic apparatus starting from the 48th hour and on the primary photochemistry of PSII after 144 h. In the case of Cu the effect was related to a lipid peroxidation decrease and to an increase in glutathione and phytochelatin (PC) levels, but in the case of Cd to lipid peroxidation, O.2- and especially to PCs increase. The obtained results indicated that JA after the longest time might enhance the sensitivity of A. thaliana to Cu and Cd stress. Asc enhanced toxic action of Cu and Cd after 15 h, but after a longer time it diminished the influence of Cd (but not Cu) on photosynthetic activity.