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11.
12.
Frank Eierdanz Joseph Alcamo Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Dörthe Krömker Dennis Tänzler 《Regional Environmental Change》2008,8(4):197-205
This paper presents the technical aspects of a new methodology for assessing the susceptibility of society to drought. The
methodology consists of a combination of inference modelling and fuzzy logic applications. Four steps are followed: (1) model
input variables are selected—these variables reflect the main factors influencing susceptibility in a social group, population
or region, (2) fuzzification—the uncertainties of the input variables are made explicit by representing them as ‘fuzzy membership
functions’, (3) inference modelling—the input variables are used to construct a model made up of linguistic rules, and (4)
defuzzification—results from the model in linguistic form are translated into numerical form, also through the use of fuzzy
membership functions. The disadvantages and advantages of this methodology became apparent when it was applied to the assessment
of susceptibility from three disciplinary perspectives: Disadvantages include the difficulty in validating results and the
subjectivity involved with specifying fuzzy membership functions and the rules of the inference model. Advantages of the methodology
are its transparency, because all model assumptions have to be made explicit in the form of inference rules; its flexibility,
in that informal and expert knowledge can be incorporated through ‘fuzzy membership functions’ and through the rules in the
inference model; and its versatility, since numerical data can be converted to linguistic statements and vice versa through
the procedures of ‘fuzzification’ and ‘defuzzification’. 相似文献
13.
S. S. S. Sarma Saúl Avelino Rivera Fabiola Elizalde Hinojosa S. Nandini 《Russian Journal of Ecology》2007,38(5):353-362
We tested separately the effect of two taxonomically related rotifers (B. patulus and B. macracanthus) on the population dynamics of another species (A. fissa) at low (0.5 ×10 6) and high food levels (1.5 × 106 cells/ml of Chlorella vulgaris) using different inoculation densities (0–100%). We also quantified the impact of A. fissa on the two brachionid species. Regardless of the presence of the competing species, an increase in the availability of food
led to increase in the abundances of the three rotifers. The population growth of B. patulus, B. macracanthus, or A. fissa was affected negatively when cultured together with another species. An increase in the initial density of any one of the
competing species became advantageous to maintain a certain population size. At a low algal food level, B. patulus was able to suppress A. fissa more strongly than B. macracanthus. On the other hand, at a high food level, B. macracanthus suppressed the population of A. fissa more strongly than B. patulus. Peak population densities for A. fissa varied from about 150 to 1000 ind./ml, depending on food density and the presence of competitors. The rate of population
increase (r) of A. fissa, B. patulus, and B. macracanthus increased with an increase in food availability but decreased with increasing initial density of the competitor. Both Brachionus spp. experienced negative growth rates in the presence of A. fissa, especially at a high initial density of the latter.
Published in Russian in Ekologiya, 2007, Vol. 38, No. 5, pp. 381–390.
The article was submitted by the authors in English. 相似文献
14.
Tanay B. Yıldırım Tutku Ak Zuhal Ölmez 《Environment, Development and Sustainability》2008,10(6):871-881
While the world is going into different tourism expectations, the tourism understanding in Turkey is defined as tourism in the sea-sand-sun triangle. However, it is possible to contribute to the income and local development of the indigenous people by developing nature-based tourism. Besides, with the sustainable use and preservation of the natural-cultural assets, the damage of the traditional tourism industry on the natural and cultural environment could be reduced. In this study, it is aimed to bring up the nature-based tourism concept in Çanakkale by evaluating the nature-based tourism industry in the general of Turkey and assessing the natural-cultural resources that Çanakkale comprehends. The most important areas that have a nature-based tourism potential in Çanakkale and the tourism activities that are most suitable for these areas have been determined. 相似文献
15.
16.
长江三峡地区坡地发育初步研究 总被引:8,自引:2,他引:6
坡地发育是地貌学研究的基本问题之一。三峡地区坡地发育的研究对三峡库岸稳定性的评估和三峡移民的土地开发具有十分重要的意义。首先从概括坡地发育的研究进展,阐述科学家们对坡地发育的不同看法入手,引出三峡地区坡地发育的特殊性。初步研究三峡地区的坡地发育具有分段式分进的特点,包括中山峰陡坡的剥蚀后退过程,山顶缓坡的风化剥蚀夷平的过程,上段斜坡的片流坡地侵蚀过程,下段陡坡的剥坡后退过程,山麓堆积缓坡的剥蚀过程等。通过分析三峡地区坡地的五种坡段的成因、现状、发展趋势以及它们对三峡库区的稳定性和三峡移民的土地开发的影响,预测未来的三峡库岸,大部分为剥蚀陡坡,部分为崩塌滑坡陡坡,三峡沿岸城镇开发建设的重点将是库岸有坡地的防护工程。 相似文献
17.
Whereas past research has treated co-management of common pool resources as if villagers and project implementing authorities
were the only relevant actors, numerous external factors beyond the control of these two partners create barriers to successful
co-management. This paper draws on discussions with Forest Department officials to examine the influence of these forces on
the outcomes of Joint Forest Management (JFM) in Tamil Nadu, India. An empirical inquiry into the operational aspects of JFM
indicates the important roles of political parties, powerful people, and other state institutions and functionaries as well
as the flow of foreign funding. Further, the strong demand by local people for socio-economic development interventions as
opposed to improvement of degraded forests belittles the role of the Forest Department relative to other departments. Numerous
other conditioning factors and relationships are explored. The authors call for reforms in public governance to allow better
participation of all the actors involved for this participatory management approach to succeed and sustain. 相似文献
18.
Although stewardship has been widely defined and used in environmental management and planning, there is a dearth of studies
that describe how the lay public perceives this concept. A national sample of residents in 14 states who live near DOE nuclear
facilities were interviewed to delineate public understanding and awareness of the stewardship program of the U.S. Department
of Energy (DOE). This study discusses the findings of the survey and discusses how institutional trust influences public participation
and resident’s choices of potential stewards. Almost 40% of the respondents could not define stewardship; those who did, believed
that ‘responsibility,’ ‘management,’ and ‘accountability’ are key elements of stewardship. In addition, about a third of the
respondents identified Federal groups and the DOE as potential stewards.
Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue 相似文献
19.
Environmental factors have long been shown to influence species distributions, with range limits often resulting from environmental
stressors exceeding organism tolerances. However, these abiotic factors may differentially affect species with multiple life-history
stages. Between September 2004 and January 2006, the roles of temperature and nutrient availability in explaining the southern
distributions of two understory kelps, Pterygophora californica and Eisenia arborea (Phaeophyceae, Laminariales), were investigated along the coast of California, USA and the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico,
by limiting either: (a) tissue nitrogen uptake and storage by adult sporophytes during periods of elevated temperature, and/or
(b) production of embryonic sporophytes by microscopic gametophytes. Results suggest that while adult sporophytes of both
species are tolerant of high temperatures and low nutrients, reproduction by their microscopic stages is not. Specifically,
while E. arborea produced embryonic sporophytes at both 12 and 18°C, temperatures commonly observed throughout the southern portion of its
range, P. californica produced sporophytes at 12 but not at 18°C. As a result, it appears that the southern distribution of P. californica, which ends in northern Baja California, Mexico, may be limited by temperature acting on its microscopic stages. In contrast,
the ability of E. arborea’s microscopic and adult stages to tolerate elevated temperatures allows it to persist in the warmer southern waters of Baja
California, as well as to the north along the California coast where both species co-occur. 相似文献
20.
Tone River supplies most of the water requirements of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (TMA). Lowering of Tone flow and yearly
fluctuation, however, is causing water shortage along TMA nowadays. This study investigated the future water availability
scenarios under climatic changes. A state-of-the-art approach to utilize the output of several GCM has been demonstrated to
investigate the future water availability scenarios for TMA from the Tone River. An integrated modeling approach for water
balance considering several hydrological risk indices was adopted to quantify the future changes in this case. It is observed
that the future summer precipitation along the Tone basin is going to be increased considerably, while an almost constant
or decreasing trend is observed for winter season. Natural flow availability for winter or spring seasons thus can be crucial
under future scenarios. After reservoir routing, the hydrological risk indices estimated, however, were not found to be changed
significantly due to the presence of a robust reservoir system at the upstream. 相似文献