探索发展与减灾协调之路——从2006年达沃斯国际减灾会议看中国发展与减灾协调对策

介绍了于2006年8月28日至9月1日在瑞士达沃斯举行的国际减灾会议的主要内容。在阅读本次会议有关论文扩展摘要集内容。以及会议上散发的大量文件、研究报告的基础上,综述了当前国际减灾研究与实践工作中,学术界、政界与企业界等在探索协调发展与减灾进程中的主要进展和发展趋向。国际减灾界当前关注的主要领域为：建立灾害与风险科学,善待与重建生态系统,关注全球环境变化与灾害的密切关系,重视利用金融、保险和再保险手段转移风险,关注女性在灾害风险管理中的作用,关注恐怖主义对社会风险的强化作用,发展灾害风险管理的信息支撑平台,重视建设高风险地区综合减灾范式。在此基础上,针对中国可持续发展战略实施过程中存在的主要问题,提出中国协调发展与减灾对策为：建立国家协调发展与减轻灾害风险的管理体制与运行机制,加强控制综合灾害风险水平的生态系统等减灾基础设施建设,发挥女性在农村地区综合灾害风险管理中的作用,建立区域综合灾害风险管理与减灾范式和加强区域综合灾害风险防范关键技术的开发,促进灾害与风险学科体系的形成。     

室内火灾温度的预测方法及其分析

室内火灾温度是火灾科学中非常重要的参数之一，它对火灾防护有着重要的作用。本文以轰燃为分界点，总结归纳了目前国际上采用的轰燃前后室内火灾温度的预测方法。对每一种方法的使用条件及优缺点作了分析。同时对轰燃前后的各种温度预测方法分别作了简要的对比。最后根据前面的分析推荐了作者认为实用性较强的几种方法．     

同一孕震模式中不同的水位变化形态

基于应力场与含水层井水位的关系 ,以DD模式为例 ,用数值模拟的方法讨论了同一孕震模式下不同地点的井水位变化。研究表明 ,同一孕震模式下水位存在不同的前兆现象 ,这些前兆现象水位变化形态与观测井相对于孕震区的不同位置有密切关系。本文同时给出了DD模式下不同地点的水位前兆变化特征     

铁路示范路段滑坡动态分析系统

本文以成昆线乌斯河-普雄为示范路段,以该段滑坡的发育、分布规律及其对建筑物影响为研究对象;利用开发dBASE、AutoCAD、Idrisi等计算机辅助软件,初步建立了滑坡动态分析系统以实现滑坡特征分析及与环境背景的映射分析,从中揭示出示范段内滑坡发育的控制因素,为开展滑坡致灾预报奠定了基础。     

The biogeochemistry of selenium in Sunan grassland,Gansu, Northwest China,casts doubt on the belief that Marco Polo reported selenosis for the first time in history

In order to clarify the historic academic problem of whether or not livestock poisoning in ancient Suzhou of Northwest China, recorded by Marco Polo in 1295, was selenosis, this study deals with the biogeochemistry of selenium in Sunan County in the Hexi Corridor, which is part of ancient Suzhou in China. It was found that quite a number of farm animals had suffered from intoxication and died as a result of grazing poisonous grasses, mostly Oxytropis DC, Stellera chamaejasme, and Achnatheru inebrians. Toxic symptoms of livestock grazing on Oxytropis DC are similar to those of selenium toxicity, for instance, hair loss and hoof lesions as described by Marco Polo. Therefore, we thought that toxic grass, probably Oxytropis DC, led to the intoxication of livestock recorded by Marco Polo. Average Se concentrations in two members of this species were 0.112 +/- 0.038 mg/kg for the root of Oxytropis glabra, 0.102 +/- 0.027 mg/kg for the stem and leaf of Oxytropis glabra, and 0.066 +/- 0.009 mg/kg for Oxytropis ochrocephala. The average soil selenium concentration was 0.205 +/- 0.127 mg/kg on grassland producing Oxytropis glabra and 0.152 +/- 0.024 mg/kg on grassland producing Oxytropis ochrocephala. The average Se concentration in other plants was 0.076 mg/kg in the root of Ephedra monosperma Mey, 0.029 mg/kg in the root of Rheum palmatum, 0.031 mg/kg in the root of Stellera chamaejasme, 0.037 mg/kg in Achnatherum inebrians, and 0.067 mg/kg in forage grass (Achnatherum splendens ohwi). Selenium concentrations in soils and plants in Sunan County are far less than the thresholds causing selenium toxicity in livestock. As a result, this study concludes that the livestock poisoning recorded by Marco Polo in 1295 might not have been selenosis.     

大麻茎腐病菌的分离及其对土壤环境影响的研究

从病变部位分离出两株病原真菌DN1和DN2,通过茵丝及孢子形态的观察,初步确定其分别为半知菌亚门链格孢属（Altemaria altemata）及轮枝孢属（M．Verticillium）。在pH值4～14之间,两株菌都能正常生长,对环境的适应能力较强。通过盆栽试验确定大麻对土壤pH的影响,结果表明大麻能修复弱碱性土壤。     

2000年1月15日姚安6.5级地震余震序列震源机制解与震源区应力场分析

本文利用垂直向的Pg和Sg波的最大振幅比方法,计算2000年1月15日云南姚安6.5级地震后余震序列震源机制解,通过统计和系统聚类分析,再结合震中分布图,综合分析了云南姚安6.5级地震的震源机制解和震源区应力场破裂特征,研究结果表明震源断层的走向为SEE-NWW占主导,其平均解为120°,震区主压应力轴平均解为145°,即SSE向,与震源区现今构造应力场主压应力方向一致,表明余震的应力场主要受区域应力场的控制.     

PRED问题与地理工程

本文首先定义了由人口、资源、环境和发展构成的PRED问题的思路,讨论了它的性质;然后提出用地理工程解决PRED问题,并构建了地理工程的理论框架。     

The drivers of risk to water security in Shanghai

Big cities are often said to have big water problems, and Shanghai is no exception. In this paper, we examine and compare the influence of the major factors that give rise to the risk of water insecurity in Shanghai. There is an extensive and diverse literature on these issues, dealt with in isolation, and here, we provide a synthesis of the literature, together with our own assessments and calculations, to assess what are the risks to Shanghai’s water supply and what is our degree of confidence in this assessment. We describe the systems that supply water to the city, and past and future changes in the systems, including changes in the glaciers that supply some water to the river, changes in climate, changes in land use, the construction of dams, and water diversions. We show how, at the same time as Shanghai is increasing its dependence on the Yangtze river, water diversions and sea level rise are increasing the risk that this water will be too saline to consume at certain times of the year. This analysis suggests that most of the major drivers of the risk to water security in Shanghai are within the power of environmental managers to control.     

创造可持续发展价值——企业绿色普惠战略的构建

转型经济下,环境污染问题与贫富差距问题已经成为影响我国进一步发展的两个重要问题。企业在解决这两个问题时往往采取绿色战略和普惠(Inclusive)战略分而治之,但效果不显著。基于三重底线理论,建立"囚徒困境"发展博弈模型,发现单一地从环境问题或贫困问题出发来制定企业战略最终都将陷入不稳定状态,不能持续发展,最终可能返回原点。针对这样的问题,创造性地提出绿色普惠战略,综合解决环境与贫困问题,并给出了三种实施路径。同时进一步通过绿色普惠商业生态系统的构建,帮助企业度过战略实施中的危险期,从而达到整体最优,实现经济、环境、社会的可持续发展。最后深入剖析了江苏紫荆花纺织科技股份有限公司绿色普惠战略的实践过程。