Exploring the efficiency of bias corrections of regional climate model output for the assessment of future crop yields in Europe

Excessive summer drying and reduced growing season length are expected to reduce European crop yields in future. This may be partly compensated by adapted crop management, increased CO₂ concentration and technological development. For food security, changes in regional to continental crop yield variability may be more important than changes in mean yields. The assessment of changes in regional and larger scale crop variability requires high resolution and spatially consistent future weather, matching a specific climate scenario. Such data could be derived from regional climate models (RCMs), which provide changes in weather patterns. In general, RCM output is heavily biased with respect to observations. Due to the strong nonlinear relation between meteorological input and crop yields, the application of this biased output may result in large biases in the simulated crop yield changes. The use of RCM output only makes sense after sufficient bias correction. This study explores how RCM output can be bias corrected for the assessment of changes in European and subregional scale crop yield variability due to climate change. For this, output of the RCM RACMO of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute was bias corrected and applied within the crop simulation model WOrld FOod STudies to simulate potential and water limited yields of three divergent crops: winter wheat, maize and sugar beets. The bias correction appeared necessary to successfully reproduce the mean yields as simulated with observational data. It also substantially improved the year-to-year variability of seasonal precipitation and radiation within RACMO, but some bias in the interannual variability remained. This is caused by the fact that the applied correction focuses on mean and daily variability. The interannual variability of growing season length, and as a consequence the potential yields too, appeared even deteriorated. Projected decrease in mean crop yields is well in line with earlier studies. No significant change in crop yield variability was found. Yet, only one RCM is analysed in this study, and it is recommended to extend this study with more climate models and a slightly adjusted bias correction taking into account the variability of larger time scales as well.     

Climate proofing the Zuidplaspolder: a guiding model approach to climate adaptation

Climate change will have an impact on various sectors, such as housing, infrastructure, recreation and agriculture. Climate change may change spatial demands. For example, rising temperatures will increase the need for recreation areas, and areas could be assigned for water storage. There is a growing sense that, especially at the local scale, spatial planning has a key role in addressing the causes and impacts of climate change. This paper promotes an approach to help translate information on climate change impacts into a guiding model for adaptive spatial planning. We describe how guiding models can be used in designing integrated adaptation strategies. The concept of guiding models has been developed in the 1990s by Tjallingii to translate the principles of integrated water management in urban planning. We have integrated information about the present and future climate change and set up a climate adaptation guiding model approach. Making use of climate adaptation guiding models, spatial planners should be able to better cope with complexities of climate change impacts and be able to translate these to implications for spatial planning. The climate adaptation guiding model approach was first applied in the Zuidplaspolder case study, one of the first major attempts in the Netherlands to develop and implement an integrated adaptation strategy. This paper demonstrates how the construction of climate adaptation guiding models requires a participatory approach and how the use of climate adaptation guiding models can contribute to the information needs of spatial planners at the local scale, leading to an increasing sense of urgency and integrated adaptation planning process.     

Observed climate-induced changes in plant phenology in the Netherlands

We determined whether climate change in the Netherlands has caused phenological changes since 1868. We analysed over 150,000 plant phenological observations of 320 plant species, obtained by four volunteer networks and one series collected by Mr. Braaksma. With the network data, we compared the timing of life cycle events in three different periods: 1894–1932 (Period 1), 1940–1968 (Period 2) and 2001–2010 (Period 3). For the Braaksma series, we compared the periods 1953–1968 (Period A) with 1969–1992 (Period B). We conclude that until the beginning of the 1990s, there have been no significant changes in the timing of life cycle events. The timing of life cycle events in Period 3 showed an average advance of flowering, leaf unfolding and fruit ripening of 14 days compared with Period 1 and 13 days compared with Period 2. Some species have advanced up to over 35 days. Autumn events occurred up to an average of 7 days later in Period 3 compared to earlier periods. This study shows that, based on network data, changes in climate explain on average 66 % of the variation in timing of phenological events from year to year. For the Braaksma data, this is 38 %. The expected future changes in climate will undoubtedly result in a further lengthening of the growing season. We believe that phenological networks, supported by thousands of volunteers, are needed to quantify, analyse, predict and communicate these phenological changes so various sectors in society can adapt to these changes and prevent significant socio-economic impacts.     

Improving cross-sectoral climate change adaptation for coastal settlements: insights from South East Queensland,Australia

Climate change impacts affecting coastal areas, such as sea-level rise and storm surge events, are expected to have significant social, economic and environmental consequences worldwide. Ongoing population growth and development in highly urbanised coastal areas will exacerbate the predicted impacts on coastal settlements. Improving the adaptation potential of highly vulnerable coastal communities will require greater levels of planning and policy integration across sectors and scales. However, to date, there is little evidence in the literature which demonstrates how climate policy integration is being achieved. This paper contributes to this gap in knowledge by drawing on the example provided by the process of developing cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes generated for three coastal settlement types as part of the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI), a 3-year multi-sectoral study of climate change adaptation options for human settlements in South East Queensland, Australia. In doing so, we first investigate the benefits and challenges to cross-sectoral adaptation to address climate change broadly and in coastal areas. We then describe how cross-sectoral adaptation policies and programmes were generated and appraised involving the sectors of urban planning and management, coastal management, emergency management, human health and physical infrastructure as part of SEQCARI. The paper concludes by discussing key considerations that can inform the development and assessment of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation policies and programmes in highly urbanised coastal areas.     

Phosphorus management in Europe in a changing world

Food production in Europe is dependent on imported phosphorus (P) fertilizers, but P use is inefficient and losses to the environment high. Here, we discuss possible solutions by changes in P management. We argue that not only the use of P fertilizers and P additives in feed could be reduced by fine-tuning fertilization and feeding to actual nutrient requirements, but also P from waste has to be completely recovered and recycled in order to close the P balance of Europe regionally and become less dependent on the availability of P-rock reserves. Finally, climate-smart P management measures are needed, to reduce the expected deterioration of surface water quality resulting from climate-change-induced P loss.     

Digital innovation through partnership between nature conservation organisations and academia: A qualitative impact assessment

Nature conservation organisations increasingly turn to new digital technologies to help deliver conservation objectives. This has led to collaborative forms of working with academia to spearhead digital innovation. Through in-depth interviews with three UK research-council-funded case studies, we show that by working with academics conservation organisations can receive positive and negative impacts, some of which cut across their operations. Positive impacts include new ways of engaging with audiences, improved data workflows, financial benefits, capacity building and the necessary digital infrastructure to help them influence policy. Negative impacts include the time and resources required to learn new skills and sustain new technologies, managing different organisational objectives and shifts in working practices as a result of the new technologies. Most importantly, collaboration with academics was shown to bring the opportunity of a profound change in perspectives on technologies with benefits to the partner organisations and individuals therein.     

Mapping species distributions: A comparison of skilled naturalist and lay citizen science recording

To assess the ability of traditional biological recording schemes and lay citizen science approaches to gather data on species distributions and changes therein, we examined bumblebee records from the UK’s national repository (National Biodiversity Network) and from BeeWatch. The two recording approaches revealed similar relative abundances of bumblebee species but different geographical distributions. For the widespread common carder (Bombus pascuorum), traditional recording scheme data were patchy, both spatially and temporally, reflecting active record centre rather than species distribution. Lay citizen science records displayed more extensive geographic coverage, reflecting human population density, thus offering better opportunities to account for recording effort. For the rapidly spreading tree bumblebee (Bombus hypnorum), both recording approaches revealed similar distributions due to a dedicated mapping project which overcame the patchy nature of naturalist records. We recommend, where possible, complementing skilled naturalist recording with lay citizen science programmes to obtain a nation-wide capability, and stress the need for timely uploading of data to the national repository.     

Microscope and spectacle: On the complexities of using new visual technologies to communicate about wildlife conservation

Wildlife conservation-related organisations increasingly employ new visual technologies in their science communication and public engagement efforts. Here, we examine the use of such technologies for wildlife conservation campaigns. We obtained empirical data from four UK-based organisations through semi-structured interviews and participant observation. Visual technologies were used to provide the knowledge and generate the emotional responses perceived by organisations as being necessary for motivating a sense of caring about wildlife. We term these two aspects ‘microscope’ and ‘spectacle’, metaphorical concepts denoting the duality through which these technologies speak to both the cognitive and the emotional. As conservation relies on public support, organisations have to be seen to deliver information that is not only sufficiently detailed and scientifically credible but also spectacular enough to capture public interest. Our investigation showed that balancing science and entertainment is a difficult undertaking for wildlife-related organisations as there are perceived risks of contriving experiences of nature and obscuring conservation aims.     

Occurrence of glucocorticogenic activity in various surface waters in The Netherlands

Considering the important role that surface waters serve for drinking water production, it is important to know if these resources are under the impact of contaminants. Apart from environmental pollutants such as pesticides, compounds such as (xeno)estrogens have received al lot of research attention and several large monitoring campaigns have been carried out to assess estrogenic contamination in the aquatic environment. The introduction of novel in vitro bioassays enables researchers to study if – and to what extent – water bodies are under the impact of less-studied (synthetic) hormone active compounds. The aim of the present study was to carry out an assessment on the presence and extent of glucocorticogenic activity in Dutch surface waters that serve as sources for drinking water production. The results show glucocorticogenic activity in the range of <LOD – 2.4 ng dexamethasone equivalents L⁻¹ (dex EQs) in four out of eight surface waters. An exploratory time-series study to obtain a more complete picture of the yearly average of fluctuating glucocorticogenic activities at two sample locations demonstrated glucocorticogenic activities ranging between <LOD – 2.7 ng dex EQs L⁻¹. Although immediate human health effects are unlikely, the environmental presence of glucocorticogenic compounds in the ng L⁻¹ range compels further environmental research and assessment.