A Variance Estimator for Constrained Estimates of Change in Relative Categorical Frequencies

Consistent estimators of change and state becomes an issue when sample data come from a mix of permanent and temporary observation units. A joint maximum likelihood estimator of state and change creates estimates of state that depend on antecedent viz. posterior survey results and may differ from estimates of state derived from a single-date analysis of the sample data. A constrained estimator of change in relative categorical frequencies that eliminates this potential inconsistency is proposed and a model based estimator of their sampling variance is developed. The performance of the constrained estimator is quantified against six criteria and a joint maximum likelihood estimator in simulated sampling from 15 populations with three combinations of permanent and temporary samples, four to six categorical class attributes, and constant size between sampling dates. Bias of the constrained estimators was negligible but larger than for joint maximum likelihood estimators. Mean absolute deviations and variances of constrained estimators were generally at par with the joint estimators. Constrained estimators of root mean square errors and achieved coverage of nominal confidence intervals of constrained estimators were occasionally better. A generalized variance function for the constrained estimates of change is provided as a computational shortcut.     

Reduction and avoidance of lubricant mist demands an integrated assessment approach

A case study to identify major factors for lubricant mist exposure covered 15 metal machining sites. The investigation included milling, turning, drilling and grinding applications. Systematic analysis considered all relevant data concerning the machine tool, the lubricant and the suction plant. The efficiency of the implemented maintenance program at the installed filter systems was checked by concentration measurements immediately before and after service. All performed measurements of lubricant aerosol and vapor loads upstream and downstream of the installed filter systems were carried out according to VDI 2066 and BIA 3110, respectively. The selection criteria for the sites to be investigated, the systematic nature of the data acquisition and the procedure of the analysis are demonstrated in detail by performing comparisons between selected applications using emulsions and those employing straight oil for lubrication. The results of the study identify recirculation of ventilated air as the major source of workplace exposure to airborne lubricant emissions. More than 60% of the demisters investigated emit air at total lubricant loads (aerosols and vapor) above the limit of 20 mg m-3 at any time of operation; which also means immediately after service. A common reason for exceeded aerosol loads in recirculated air is e.g. the fact that the type of filter system applied is often not suitable for the separation problem. Loads of lubricant vapor are usually higher at the processes which use water emulsions as lubricant. In a quarter of the cases the limits were exceeded solely due to high vapor loads even immediately after service. The exposure can be reduced by replacing the lubricant, installation of a vapor separation plant or avoiding air recirculation. Maintenance time of the demisting system and aerosol separation efficiency of state-of-the-art demisting systems can be expanded by implementation of enhanced preliminary filter stages. This study confirms that appropriate service measures lower both aerosol emissions and lubricant vapor concentrations due to the reduction of exposed oil-wetted surfaces. The performed measurements show no significant relationship between loads of airborne lubricants and the type of machining process. Therefore, investigations at a much more detailed level have to be performed. However, the individual assessment of any workplace due to the complex situation remains essential.     

Analysing the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrology models

Recently, the New Morris Method has been presented as an effective sensitivity analysis tool for mathematical models. The New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity of an output parameter to a given set of input parameters (first-order effects) and the extent these parameters interact with each other (second-order effects). This method requires the specification of two parameters (runs and resolution) that control the sampling of the output parameter to determine its sensitivity to various inputs. The criteria for these parameters have been set on the analysis of a well-behaved analytical function (see Cropp and Braddock, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 78:77–83, 2002), which may not be applicable to other physical models that describe complex processes. This paper will investigate the appropriateness of the criteria from (Cropp and Braddock, 2002) and hence the effectiveness of the New Morris Method to determine the sensitivity behaviour of two hydrologic models: the Soil Erosion and Deposition System and Griffith University Representation of Urban Hydrology. In the first case, this paper will separately analyse the sensitivity of an output parameter on a set of input parameters (first- and second-order effects) for each model and discuss the physical meaning of these sensitivities. This will be followed by an investigation into the sampling criteria by exploring the convergence of the sensitivity behaviour for each model as the sampling of the parameter space is increased. By comparing these trends to the convergence behaviour from Cropp and Braddock (2002), we will determine how well the New Morris Method estimates the sensitivity for each model and whether the sampling criteria are appropriate for these models. It will be shown that the New Morris Method can provide additional insight into the functioning of these models, and that, under a different metric, the sensitivity behaviour of these models does converge confirming the sampling criteria set by Cropp and Braddock.     

Working backwards to move forwards: Graph-based connectivity metrics for reserve network selection

In this paper we apply graph theory in a reserve selection exercise to explore the tradeoffs between maintaining connectivity and minimizing the total area of a protected area network. Rather than focus on a single organism, we used a multi-species approach and looked at the tradeoff curves for organisms with varying dispersal abilities. We first generated the tradeoff curves using a graph-based metric to determine the importance of individual patches for maintaining connectivity. We then performed an analogous set of analyses using patch size as a surrogate measure of importance.     

A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling

In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability.     

Environmental quality control and environmental games

Conclusion  In this paper we have considered a specific environmental game emphasizing both control-prevention efforts and the propensity to pollute by a firm which adopts a given pollution abatement technology. A random payoff game was constructed and solved under a risk neutral assumption and quadratic utilities for both the firm and the environmental controller. The game thus defined, provides a wide range of interpretations and potential approaches for selecting a control-inspection policies to prevent environmental risks. There are of course many facets to this problem, which could be considered and have not been considered in sufficient depth. For example, more complex control mechanisms and liabilities, the effects of insurance and risk sharing, the application of cooperative efforts and subvention of pollution abatement investments (through tax incentives and their like), etc. have not been considered [5,7]. These are topics for further research. The basic presumption of this paper is that it is very difficult to fully enforce pollution prevention by firms, as a result, some controls are needed to ensure that firms be controlled so that appropriate efforts are carried.     

Integrating disciplinary research into an interdisciplinary framework: A case study in sustainability research

The complexity of today’s research problems increasingly demands that scientists move beyond the confines of their own discipline. In this special issue, the basics of a transdisciplinary framework are established and problems analyzed in a specific discipline are successfully integrated in this transdisciplinary network. The intent has been to go beyond only statements about the importance of enabling early stage researchers to work across disciplinary boundaries, and to show that important discoveries are being made at the intersection of disciplines. Embedding various research projects in a more global framework can meet the demands of an interdisciplinary or transdisciplinary approach (especially for early stage researchers) and contribute significantly to sustainable research.     

A study on the orbit of air temperature movement

In this paper, we describe an air temperature movement by mapping its time series to the polar coordinates: the value of the time series is plotted on the radial coordinate and the time on the angular coordinate. In this way, both the yearly and daily air temperature movements from five different locations of China are used to demonstrate that, in an intuitionistic view, air temperature movement is neither random nor chaotic, but has its own orbit. We then propose an elliptic orbit model for the air temperature movement. Our proposed model provides quite good results when it is applied to the evaluation of yearly air temperature movements in eight locations in various parts of the world, and the evaluation of daily air temperature movements in five locations in Hunan Province of China on December 17, 2005. Results show that our approach provides a concise and helpful model for air temperature analysis.     

Water quality test based on dielectrophoretic measurements of fresh water algae Selenastrum capricornutum

A method is described whereby dielectrophoresis of algal cells is used to perform rapid water quality analysis, specifically detecting the presence of CuSO4. The dielectric collection spectrum of the fresh water alga Selenastrum capricornutum was determined for a range of concentrations of CuSO4 from 25 mg L(-1) to 0.25 mg L(-1) for exposure times of 15 min and 18 h. In all cases increasing the concentration of CuSO4 reduced cell collection, but a step reduction was observed in collection between 2 mg L(-1) and 5 mg L(-1). This method has potential for forming a rapid, low-cost test for water quality with broad specificity and significantly reduced analysis time compared to current methods.     

Indoor concentrations of carbon monoxide in selected urban microenvironments

CO concentrations were measured in five kindergartens, one children's hospital and two homes for aged, practically without indoor sources, all situated in the city centre, for ten random days in winter and ten in summer. The indoor CO concentrations were the result of the distance from and the traffic density in the nearest street, of general pollution level, seasonal differences, day-to-day variations and daily cycle of air pollution, the vicinity of traffic having a dominant influence. Therefore location of institutions for sensitive population groups in old city centres within a block of houses seems to be a suitable solution as far as exposure to CO is concerned.Revised version of a paper presented as poster at the VIth World Congress on Air Quality, Paris 1983.