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181.
A modular approach to Integrated Assessment modeling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In this paper, we present a new approach to model coupling that probably forms the methodological basis of a new generation of Integrated Assessment models. This approach respects the knowledge and expertise that is embodied in existing models and encourages their gradual evolution. Modularity is the guiding principle. Our approach is distinguished by the way modules are coupled which is based on an interplay of a job control module, a numerical coupling module, and a couple of stand-alone functional modules. The numerical coupling module - the core component - serves to treat the feedbacks between the functional modules. A first implemented example that couples an economic and a climate module by means of a two-phase meta-optimization is presented here. The algorithm and mathematical structure behind are discussed as well as important features such as convergence behavior and reliability. 相似文献
182.
183.
Lake V?nern, the largest lake in Sweden, has been seriously contaminated with mercury during the 20th century. In the 1970's and 80's the direct load, mainly from a chlor-alkali industry in the area, of mercury was drastically reduced as a response to new legislation, from three to five tons down to between five and ten kg yr(-1). Large amounts of the disposed pollutant have accumulated in the sediments. The question posed in this work is now, is the effect of the drastic load reduction after more than two decades visible in the sediments? The question is relevant as large areas still are blacklisted for fishing, but also as a follow-up of a major remedy action. The lake also serves as a freshwater reservoir for even Sweden's second largest city. This work synthesises and compares data of mercury in the sediments from three major field programs, in 1974, 1984 and 1998. The interest is focused on both spatial heterogeneity and temporal trends. In 1974, the surface concentrations are significantly higher than in subsequent surveys. Significant differences are also found between 1984 and 1998. Significant spatial differences within the lake are found for respective year. The most contaminated area is located in the north, close to the major point source (a former chlor-alkali industry). This is also the area with the largest improvement, as a direct response to the reduction in load. Further from the outlet, the recovery is more affected by burial and transport processes out into the deeper basins. 相似文献
184.
Magnuson ML Kelty CA Urbansky ET Owens JH Kelty KC Speth TF 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2002,4(1):102-108
Analytical chemistry is an important tier of environmental protection and has been traditionally linked to compliance and/or exposure monitoring activities for environmental contaminants. The adoption of the risk management paradigm has led to special challenges for analytical chemistry applied to environmental risk analysis. Namely, methods developed for regulated contaminants may not be appropriate and/or applicable to risk management scenarios. This paper contains examples of analytical chemistry applied to risk management challenges broken down by the analytical approach and analyte for some selected work in our laboratory. Specific techniques discussed include stable association complex electrospray mass spectrometry (cESI-MS), gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS), split-flow thin cell (SPLITT) fractionation and matrix-assisted laser desorption time of flight mass spectrometry (MALDI-ToF-MS). Specific analytes include haloacetic acids (HAA9), perchlorate, bromate, triazine degradation products, metal-contaminated colloids and Cryptosporidium parvum oocysts. 相似文献
185.
Osborn LV Kurek JT Kriech AJ Fehsenfeld FM 《Journal of environmental monitoring : JEM》2001,3(2):185-190
A subset of polycyclic aromatic compounds (PACs), which contain 4-6 annulated rings, has been documented as the source of carcinogenicity in animal skin painting studies of petroleum products and asphalt fumes (M. L. Machado, P. W. Beatty, J. C. Fetzer, A. H. Glickman and E. L. McGinnis, Fundam. Appl. Toxicol., 1993, 21, 492; T. A. Roy, S. W. Johnson, G. R. Blackburn and C. R. Mackerer, Fundam. Appl. Toxicol., 1988, 10, 466). Because of the chemical complexity of these materials, it has been difficult to identify the specific compounds within this broad range of PACs responsible for their carcinogenicity. An alternative approach using luminescence spectroscopy was taken in this study to quantify, without identification, a subset of these compounds that appears to cause cancer. The fluorescence response at a specific wavelength pair was obtained for 39 laboratory asphalt fume condensates from animal skin painting studies, yielding a linear correlation coefficient of R2 = 0.96 between the fluorescence response in these materials and the carcinogenicity found in animal studies. In the absence of other asphalt fume condensates from animal studies, 17 petroleum oils were also evaluated using this method and compared with the available animal skin painting data. The details of the method include a clean-up step that removes the highly polar compounds and spectral subtraction of two- and three-ring PAC interference, both of which add to the fluorescence response, yet were not found to contribute to a carcinogenic response from skin painting studies. Full scan fluorescence plots also produce a fingerprint which can be used to assess contamination, such as coal tar products or mixtures of materials, that are not defined as asphalt, yet may be present in the working environment. 相似文献
186.
A multi-year programme was performed to assess the effects of atmospheric ethylene on potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in the vicinity of polyethylene manufacturing plants. There was a strong temporal variation of the hourly ethylene concentrations measured close to the sources from 1982 through 1991. Growing seasonal means exceeded 12 g m–3 ethylene, the threshold for phytotoxic effects under laboratory conditions. Young test plants of potato showed an epinastic response to enhanced levels of ethylene. This response was reversible and did not occur when atmospheric ethylene was not detected. Based on hourly observations for the growing seasons of 1984 through 1991, epinasty occurred on average during circa 5% of the growing season and varied from circa 1% in 1985 to circa 18% in 1991. At night, ethylene concentrations were higher and epinasty was more frequent than during daylight hours. The intermittent exposures to ethylene did not affect tuber yield for the growing seasons of 1982 through 1990. The occurrence of epinasty indicated that ethylene exposure levels in the vicinity of the industrial sources might be sufficiently high to affect sensitive plants. 相似文献
187.
This study determined the spatial distribution of soiland of sediment-associated lead in Iqaluit, Nunavut.Samples were collected from the following areas:outside the built-up area of the town to reflectbackground concentrations; known or potential pointsources of lead, such as the Upper Base, the SylviaGrinnell Dump and the Metal Dump (North 40); andresidential and commercial areas of Iqaluit and Apex,a satellite community. In the laboratory, the <63 m sample fraction was analyzed for total lead andbioavailable lead, estimated by non-residual acidextractable lead content. The research findings revealthat elevated levels of bioavailable lead are presentin the study area. Total lead concentrations generallydo not exceed environmental guidelines. However, leadconcentrations in the Sylvia Grinnell Dump, and Apexand Iqaluit grid areas exceed health-based guidelines.The research concludes that there is not a serioushealth hazard posed by lead levels in the soil andsediment in the study area. However, severalenvironmental (elevated lead levels, bioavailableforms of lead and bare soil surfaces) and behaviouralfactors (vigorous and unsupervised play outside) maycreate a risk of lead exposure. 相似文献
188.
Patil MP Subramani T Patil SA Chakrabarti T 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2002,76(3):299-309
A comprehensive environmental assessment (EA) is a pre-requisite before the site for developing a hazardous waste treatment and disposal facility (HWTDF) is selected. However, the resource limitations, especially for developing countries, often dictatethat the detailed EA be restricted to those sites, which are constraint free and have low hazard potentials. Thus, a preliminary screening exercise for assessing the suitability ofsite for developing the HWTDF needs to be carried out to avoid huge costs involved in detailed EA. While screening a HWTDF site,various factors such as present land use, ecologically sensitiveareas, geology and hydrogeology of the area, the quality and quantity of wastes, engineered safeguards, and the operationalprocedures that need to be adopted, are required to be addressed. In this paper, a multi-level screening criteria employing RemoteSensing, Constraint Mapping, Groundwater Pollution Potential Index (DRASTIC Index), and the Site Ranking was used to assess the suitability of a proposed site for the development of HWTDF.The study helped to identify various constraints at the proposedsite and their significance on the development of the HWTDF. 相似文献
189.
Darek J. Nalle Jeffrey L. Arthur Claire A. Montgomery John Sessions 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2002,7(2):99-105
An optimization model for land reservation was developed that explicitly selects parcels in the most compact or contiguous manner possible while meeting habitat requirements and a budget limitation. The model was used to compare the effects of an existing reserve network on future parcel spatial locations and total cost. Using habitat and land value data from Josephine County, Oregon, it was found that a system of existing reserves created by various policies and overseen by different agencies can decrease future reserve compactness and contiguity, and increase total cost. This work suggests that coordinated planning can result in more efficient conservation efforts for less cost. 相似文献
190.
A. M. Cicero M. Mecozzi R. Morlino D. Pellegrini E. Veschetti 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2001,71(3):297-316
Dredging is a very important procedure for harbor management. InItaly the guidelines for the offshore dumping of dredged materials are issued by the Ministry of Environment. Theydescribed a few steps of dredging activities, such as thesampling strategy, but do not deal with limits or guide-valuesfor the chemical, physical and biological composition of theresulting sediments. The quality of dredged materials is mainlydependent on the presence of inorganic and organic pollutants.In particular, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organo-chlorinated pesticides are seen as a high priority inmarine environment by international organizations because oftheir persistence, toxicity and bioaccumulation capacity.In this article the presence of some PCBs and organo-chlorinatedpesticides in sediment samples collected from the harbor ofLivorno (Northern Tyrrhenian Sea) was investigated. Theconcentration of HCHs, Aldrin, Chlordanes, DDEs, DDTs, and PCBsin 12 representative sites ranged between <1 g kg–1and 95, 19, 32, 35, 107, and 111 g kg–1, respectively.The application of univariate and multivariate statisticaltechniques, such as linear regression analysis and principalcomponent analysis, to the experimental data showed a differentdistribution of PCBs in the two sediment layers. On thecontrary, the vertical distribution of the other investigatedpollutants was more homogeneous and affected by randomvariability. The multivariate approach was an important tool to establish more rational criteria for the management of dredged materials. 相似文献