Space-time analysis of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) Phase 1 air quality simulations

This study presents an evaluation of summertime ozone concentrations over North America (NA) and Europe (EU) using the database generated from Phase 1 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII). The analysis focuses on identifying temporal and spatial features that can be used to stratify operational model evaluation metrics and to test the extent to which the various modeling systems can replicate the features seen in the observations. Using a synoptic map typing approach, it is demonstrated that model performance varies with meteorological conditions associated with specific synoptic-scale flow patterns over both eastern NA and EU. For example, the root mean square error of simulated daily maximum 8-hr ozone was twice as high when cloud fractions were high compared with when cloud fractions were low over eastern NA. Furthermore, results show that over both NA and EU the regional models participating in AQMEII were able to better reproduce the observed variance in ambient ozone levels than the global model used to specify chemical boundary conditions, although the variance simulated by almost all regional models is still less that the observed variance on all spatiotemporal scales. In addition, all modeling systems showed poor correlations with observed fluctuations on the intraday time scale over both NA and EU. Furthermore, a methodology is introduced to distinguish between locally influenced and regionally representative sites for the purpose of model evaluation. Results reveal that all models have worse model performance at locally influenced sites. Overall, the analyses presented in this paper show how observed temporal and spatial information can be used to stratify operational model performance statistics and to test the modeling systems’ ability to replicate observed temporal and spatial features, especially at scales the modeling systems are designed to capture.

Implications: The analyses presented in this paper demonstrate how observed temporal and spatial information can be used to stratify operational model performance and to test the modeling systems’ ability to replicate observed temporal and spatial features. Decisions for the improvement of regional air quality models should be based on the information derived from only regionally representative sites.     

Baltic Sea ecosystem-based management under climate change: Synthesis and future challenges

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) has emerged as the generally agreed strategy for managing ecosystems, with humans as integral parts of the managed system. Human activities have substantial effects on marine ecosystems, through overfishing, eutrophication, toxic pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. It is important to advance the scientific knowledge of the cumulative, integrative, and interacting effects of these diverse activities, to support effective implementation of EBM. Based on contributions to this special issue of AMBIO, we synthesize the scientific findings into four components: pollution and legal frameworks, ecosystem processes, scale-dependent effects, and innovative tools and methods. We conclude with challenges for the future, and identify the next steps needed for successful implementation of EBM in general and specifically for the Baltic Sea.     

Interannual variability of phyto-bacterioplankton biomass and production in coastal and offshore waters of the Baltic Sea

The microbial part of the pelagic food web is seldom characterized in models despite its major contribution to biogeochemical cycles. In the Baltic Sea, spatial and temporal high frequency sampling over three years revealed changes in heterotrophic bacteria and phytoplankton coupling (biomass and production) related to hydrographic properties of the ecosystem. Phyto- and bacterioplankton were bottom-up driven in both coastal and offshore areas. Cold winter temperature was essential for phytoplankton to conform to the successional sequence in temperate waters. In terms of annual carbon production, the loss of the spring bloom (diatoms and dinoflagellates) after mild winters tended not to be compensated for by other taxa, not even summer cyanobacteria. These results improve our ability to project Baltic Sea ecosystem response to short- and long-term environmental changes.     

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930–1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.     

Toxicity of sediment cores from Yangtze River estuary to zebrafish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Danio rerio</Emphasis>) embryos

Toxicity evaluation is an important segment in sediment quality monitoring in order to protect aquatic organisms and human health. The purpose of this study is to assess the toxicity of sediments from three sediment cores in Yangtze River Estuary, China, using the zebrafish (Danio rerio) embryo tests. Fertilized zebrafish eggs were exposed to both whole sediments and sediment organic extracts prepared from collected sediments, in order to provide a comprehensive and realistic insight into the bioavailable toxicity potential of the sediments. As end points, development parameters (mortality, hatching rate, and abnormality) in the developing embryos were recorded during the 96-h exposure. The results showed that some samples increased mortality, inhibited the hatching of embryos, and induced morphological abnormalities. The embryonic toxicities presented serrated changes and irregular distribution with depth, which may be related to hydrodynamic effect and unstable environmental input. However, lethal and sub-lethal effects were more significant at the sub-surface sediments (10～40 cm), which indicated that the pollution is more serious in recent decades.     

Levels and distribution of Dechloranes in sediments of Lake Taihu,China

The occurrence and spatial distribution of dechloranes including mirex, dechlorane plus (DP), dechlorane (Dec) 602, Dec 603, and Dec 604 in surficial sediments of Lake Taihu were investigated in this study. The concentrations of mirex and DP ranged from below detection limit (BDL) to 1.29 ng g^?1 dw and 0.051 to 2.10 ng g^?1 dw, respectively. Dec 602, Dec 603, and Dec 604 on the other hand, were BDL in any of the samples. The contamination levels of DP were higher than that of Mirex at 21 of all 22 sampling sites. Levels of mirex and DP in the lake sediments were correlated when an extremely high mirex value was removed. Both mirex and DP levels were correlated with the amount of organic matters in the sediment samples. Spatial distribution of mirex and DP suggested that these two chemicals in the lake had similar input sources except for one site. Comparison to previously reported flame retardants’ levels in the sediments shows that DP levels were similar with the levels of tetrabromobisphenol A, hexabromocyclododecane but lower than PBDEs and organophosphates levels in Lake Taihu. The higher levels in the north-east part of Lake Taihu adjacent to two major cities: Wuxi and Suzhou, indicated that city effluent might be a major source for DP contamination in the lake.     

Effects of light and temperature fluctuations on the growth of Myriophyllum spicatum in toxicity tests—a model-based analysis

Laboratory toxicity tests are a key component of the aquatic risk assessments of chemicals. Toxicity tests with Myriophyllum spicatum are conducted based on working procedures that provide detailed instructions on how to set up the experiment, e.g., which experimental design is necessary to get reproducible and thus comparable results. Approved working procedures are established by analyzing numerous toxicity tests to find a compromise between practical reasons (e.g., acceptable ranges of ambient conditions as they cannot be kept completely constant) and the ability for detecting growth alterations. However, the benefit of each step of a working procedure, e.g., the random repositioning of test beakers, cannot be exactly quantified, although this information might be useful to evaluate working procedures. In this paper, a growth model of M. spicatum was developed and used to assess the impact of temperature and light fluctuations within the standardized setup. It was analyzed how important it is to randomly reassign the location of each plant during laboratory tests to keep differences between the relative growth rates of individual plants low. Moreover, two examples are presented on how modeling can give insight into toxicity testing. Results showed that randomly repositioning of individual plants during an experiment can compensate for fluctuations of light and temperature. A method is presented on how models can be used to improve experimental designs and to quantify their benefits by predicting growth responses.     

In vitro approaches to assess bioavailability and human gastrointestinal mobilization of food-borne polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs)

This study reports on the potential for gastrointestinal (GI) mobilization and bioavailability of food-borne PCBs in humans. The development and validation of a GI simulator and operational protocols, developed in compliance with the requirements of German DIN 19738 risk assessment test procedure, are presented. Food, naturally contaminated with PCBs, was homogenized with simulated saliva fluid and shaken in the GI simulator with simulated gastric fluids (containing pepsin, mucine) for 2 h at 37°C. Afterwards, the simulated intestinal fluids (containing pepsin, mucine, trypsin, pancreatin, bile) were added and the mixture shaken for a further 6 h prior to centrifugation and filtration using Buchner funnels to separate the undigested GI residues from GI fluids. PCBs were recovered from GI residues and fluids by Soxhlet and liquid-liquid extraction respectively, cleaned up using silica-SFE, and analyzed by gas chromatography mass spectrometry detection (GC-MSD). Detailed studies with fish indicate variations in mobilization and bioavailability of Σ PCBs (28, 52, 101, 118, 153, 138 and 180). For example, the bioavailable fractions (fractions mobilized) in mackerel, salmon, crab and prawn were 0.77, 0.60, 0.54, and 0.72 respectively of the Σ PCBs initially present in these food samples. The bioavailable fraction was dependent on the physicochemical characteristics of the PCBs. In mackerel bioavailable fractions for individual PCB congeners ranged from 0.47–0.82, from 0.30–0.70 in salmon, 0.44–0.64 in crab and in prawn from 0.47–0.77. Future studies will focus on understanding better, the variability in bioavailable fractions to be expected for different foodstuffs, in addition to tissue culture techniques using human gut cell lines to investigate a simultaneous mobilization and absorption of food-borne PCBs.