A Fuzzy Model for Assessing Risk of Occupational Safety in the Processing Industry

Abstract

Managing occupational safety in any kind of industry, especially in processing, is very important and complex. This paper develops a new method for occupational risk assessment in the presence of uncertainties. Uncertain values of hazardous factors and consequence frequencies are described with linguistic expressions defined by a safety management team. They are modeled with fuzzy sets. Consequence severities depend on current hazardous factors, and their values are calculated with the proposed procedure. The proposed model is tested with real-life data from fruit processing firms in Central Serbia.     

Experimental investigation of spark ignition energy in kerosene,hexane, and hydrogen

Quantifying the risk of accidental ignition of flammable mixtures is extremely important in industry and aviation safety. The concept of a minimum ignition energy (MIE), obtained using a capacitive spark discharge ignition source, has traditionally formed the basis for determining the hazard posed by fuels. While extensive tabulations of historical MIE data exist, there has been little work done on ignition of realistic industrial and aviation fuels, such as gasoline or kerosene. In the current work, spark ignition tests are performed in a gaseous kerosene–air mixture with a liquid fuel temperature of 60 °C and a fixed spark gap of 3.3 mm. The required ignition energy was examined, and a range of spark energies over which there is a probability of ignition is identified and compared with previous test results in Jet A (aviation kerosene). The kerosene results are also compared with ignition test results obtained in previous work for traditional hydrogen-based surrogate mixtures used in safety testing as well as two hexane–air mixtures. Additionally, the statistical nature of spark ignition is discussed.     

Key parametric analysis on designing an effective forced mitigation system for LNG spill emergency

Concerns over public safety and security of a potential liquefied natural gas (LNG) spill have promoted the need for continued improvement of safety measures for LNG facilities. The mitigation techniques have been recognized as one of the areas that require further investigation to determine the public safety impact of an LNG spill. Forced mitigation of LNG vapors using a water curtain system has been proven to be effective in reducing the vapor concentration by enhancing the dispersion. Currently, no engineering criteria for designing an effective water curtain system are available, mainly due to a lack of understanding of the complex droplet–vapor interaction. This work applies computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling to evaluate various key design parameters involved in the LNG forced mitigation using an upwards-oriented full-cone water spray. An LNG forced dispersion model based on a Eulerian–Lagrangian approach was applied to solve the physical interactions of the droplet–vapor system by taking into account the various effects of the droplets (discrete phase) on the air–vapor mixture (continuous phase). The effects of different droplet sizes, droplet temperatures, air entrainment rates, and installation configurations of water spray applications on LNG vapor behavior are investigated. Finally, the potential of applying CFD modeling in providing guidance for setting up the design criteria for an effective forced mitigation system as an integrated safety element for LNG facilities is discussed.     

Integrating major accidents hazard into occupational risk assessment: An index approach

Major Accident Hazard (MAH) and Occupational Safety and Health (OSH) are two separated topics in both industrial practice and legislation; recently, interest is increasing toward an integrated risk assessment mainly forced by the tendency to a more efficient safety management system. The present study proposes a semi-quantitative approach to integrate MAH in OSH risk assessment. The two risk types are characterized by opposite features: the OSH analysis is usually task-based and focused on job profiles, while the MAH analysis is space-based and focused on plant characteristics. The basic idea of the proposed approach is to merge spatial information and job profile features in order to improve OSH assessment; thus, a risk index derived by the recent standard ISO 12100 (2010) has been adapted. In detail, the proposed index combines exposure times of each worker at each plant unit – derived from the OSH analysis – with damage areas derived from MAH analysis allowing a quantitative assessment of the MAH risk level for each individual job profile. The model has been tested in a large petrochemical plant; several hypotheses have been developed in order to validate the model. Results have showed the potentiality of the proposed approach in providing a common and coherent representation of both MAH and OSH risks, according to job profiles and plant units.     

A new approach for layout optimization in maintenance workshops with safety factors: The case of a gas transmission unit

In this study, an Integrated Simulation-Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach is presented for optimum facility layout of maintenance workshop in a gas transmission unit. The process of repair of incoming parts includes various operations on different facilities. The layout problem in this system involves determining the optimum location of all maintenance shop facilities. Layout optimization plays a crucial role in this type of problems in terms of increasing the efficiency of main production line. Standard types of layouts including U, S, W, Z and straight lines are considered. First, the maintenance workshop is modeled with discrete-event-simulation. Time in system, average waiting time, average machine utilization, average availability of facilities, average queue length of facilities (AL) and average operator utilization are obtained from simulation as key performance indicators (KPIs) of DEA. Also, safety index and number of operators are considered as other KPIs. Finally, a unified non-radial Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is presented with respect to the stated KPIs to rank all layouts alternatives and to identify the best configuration. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is used to validate and verify the results. Previous studies do not consider safety factor in layout design problems. This is the first study that presents an integrated approach for identification of optimum layout in a maintenance workshop of gas transmission unit by incorporating safety and conventional factors.     

A new integrated treatment for the reduction of organic and nitrogen loads in methanogenic landfill leachates

Because of their high organic and nitrogen loads and the presence of toxic and phytotoxic compounds, methanogenic landfill leachates are not easily biodegradable; therefore, direct biological treatment of these wastewaters in conventional treatment plants is not recommended.In the present paper, we report the results of an experimental investigation conducted with the aim of defining an innovative integrated process that is low in cost and easily manageable and that is able to substantially improve the characteristics of methanogenic leachates.Thus, an initial oxidation process was developed using hydrogen peroxide without a catalyst, which, operating under ambient conditions, reduces the phytotoxic compound content to 10% of the initial level, reduces the COD (chemical oxygen demand) content by 50% and increases the rapidly biodegradable substrate content by 50%. Next, nitrogen removal is accomplished by means of struvite precipitation using seawater bittern and bone meal as sources of magnesium and phosphorus, respectively, with this process, abatements were reached of approximately 90% of the ammonia nitrogen, which was recovered as struvite powder.     

Environmental risk mapping of accidental pollution and its zonal prevention in a city

Accidental releases of pollution can have severe environmental, societal, economic, and institutional consequences. This paper considers the use of risk mapping of accidental pollution events, and zonal prevention measures for alleviating the impact on large urban areas. An Environmental Pollution Accident Risk Mapping (EPARM) model is constructed according to a mapping index system supported by quantitative sub-models dedicated to evaluating the risk arising from different sources of potential accidental pollution. The EPARM approach consists of identifying suitable indexes, assessment of environmental risk at regional and national scales based on information on previous pollution accidents and the prevailing environmental and social conditions, and use of GIS to map the overall risk. A case study of pollution accidents in Minghang District, Shanghai, China is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model. The paper also proposes a systemic framework for accidental environmental pollution risk prevention, and detailed countermeasures for specific risk zones.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall     

Vocal Activity as a Low Cost and Scalable Index of Seabird Colony Size

Although wildlife conservation actions have increased globally in number and complexity, the lack of scalable, cost‐effective monitoring methods limits adaptive management and the evaluation of conservation efficacy. Automated sensors and computer‐aided analyses provide a scalable and increasingly cost‐effective tool for conservation monitoring. A key assumption of automated acoustic monitoring of birds is that measures of acoustic activity at colony sites are correlated with the relative abundance of nesting birds. We tested this assumption for nesting Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) in San Francisco Bay for 2 breeding seasons. Sensors recorded ambient sound at 7 colonies that had 15–111 nests in 2009 and 2010. Colonies were spaced at least 250 m apart and ranged from 36 to 2,571 m². We used spectrogram cross‐correlation to automate the detection of tern calls from recordings. We calculated mean seasonal call rate and compared it with mean active nest count at each colony. Acoustic activity explained 71% of the variation in nest abundance between breeding sites and 88% of the change in colony size between years. These results validate a primary assumption of acoustic indices; that is, for terns, acoustic activity is correlated to relative abundance, a fundamental step toward designing rigorous and scalable acoustic monitoring programs to measure the effectiveness of conservation actions for colonial birds and other acoustically active wildlife. La Actividad Vocal como un Índice Escalable y de Bajo Costo del Tamaño de Colonia de las Aves Marinas