Black carbon aerosols in urban air in South Asia

We report data from a yearlong (2006–2007) study of black carbon concentrations ([BC]) measured at 5-min intervals with an Aethalometer in Karachi, Pakistan. Daily mean [BC] varied from about 1 to 15 μg m^?3. However, short-term spikes exceeding 40 μg m^?3 were common, occurring primarily during the morning and evening rush-hour periods. The [BC] values were highest during November through February, ～10 μg m^?3, and lowest during June through September, ～2 μg m^?3. Diurnal, seasonal, and day-of-the-week trends are discussed. It is demonstrated that these trends are strongly affected by meteorological patterns. A simple expression is applied to the concentration profiles to separate the effects of meteorological conditions and elucidate the underlying emissions patterns. Daily emissions varied from 14,000 to 22,000 kg of BC per day. When integrated over the year emissions for Karachi Proper were estimated at 6.7 kilometric tons per year and emissions for greater Karachi were 17.5 kilometric tons per year. Folding in the populations of each area yields BC emissions of 0.74 and 1.1 kg per person per year, respectively. Applying the model to previously collected data at Lahore, Pakistan yields emissions during November–January that are around a factor of two higher than those in Karachi, but because the BC measurements in Lahore covered only three months, no estimates of annual emissions were attempted. Given the large populations of these cities the local health impact from PM alone is expected to be severe but because of the high [BC] emissions the impact on the global climate may be equally significant.     

Heavy metal deposition in the Italian “triangle of death” determined with the moss Scorpiurum circinatum

In this study, a biomonitoring project using the moss Scorpiurum circinatum was carried out to evaluate the deposition and biological effects of heavy metals in the area of Acerra (Naples, S Italy), one of the vertices of the sadly called “Italian triangle of death” owing to the dramatic increase in tumours. The results clearly indicated that the study area is heavily polluted by heavy metals, a large proportion of which is likely present in the atmosphere in particulate form. The ultrastructural organization of exposed samples was essentially preserved, but cell membrane pits, cytoplasm vesicles and concentric multilamellar/multivesicular bodies, probably induced by pollution, were found, which may be involved in the tolerance mechanisms to metal pollution in this moss species. Although severe biological effects were not found at the ultrastructural level in the exposed moss, effects on humans, especially after long-term exposure, are to be expected.     

Bait-lamina assay as a tool to assess the effects of metal contamination in the feeding activity of soil invertebrates within a uranium mine area

As part of the tier 2 of a site-specific risk assessment, this study was the first reporting an intensive in situ application of the bait-lamina assay; two exposure periods (7 and 14 days) were tested during four seasons in ten different sites, within a uranium mine area and at two different depths. The most contaminated sites (by deposition of sludge from the effluent treatment pond) were discriminated after 14 days of exposure because extremely low percentages of feeding activity were recorded. Previous sub-lethal ecotoxicological assays, already had demonstrated that the habitat function of these soils is compromised. Nevertheless, seasonality has proved to have a significant influence on responses. Thus to strength conclusions about the impact of contaminants, the in situ bait-lamina assay should be performed on different annual seasons, at least for temperate regions. It was also found that some environmental parameters (e.g. soil moisture and litter) can act as confounding factors in the bait-lamina assay.     

Testing the capability of the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to forecast PM10 levels in the Netherlands

Since particulate matter has a direct and adverse impact on public health, a good air quality forecast is important. Several European countries presently use statistical forecasting models, which have their limitations, especially for PM10. An alternative approach is to use a chemistry transport model. Here, the ability of the chemical transport model LOTOS-EUROS to forecast PM10 concentrations in the Netherlands was investigated. LOTOS-EUROS models several PM10 components individually. For sulphate, nitrate and ammonium aerosol the evaluation against observations shows that the modelled annual mean concentrations are within 20% of the measured concentration and that the temporal correlation is reasonably good (R > 0.6). For sea salt the model tended to overestimate the measured concentrations. For elemental carbon the correspondence with black smoke observations was reasonable. However, total PM10 is seriously underestimated, due to unmodelled components (secondary organic aerosols, mineral dust) and missing sources. Therefore, a simple bias correction for four seasons was derived based on the years 2004–2006. The model was compared with the Dutch operational statistical model PROPART and ground-level observations. With bias correction, LOTOS-EUROS performed better than PROPART regarding the timing of events. The major flaw of LOTOS-EUROS was that high values (>50 μg m^?3) were still underestimated. Another advantage of LOTOS-EUROS over the statistical model was the more detailed information in space and time, which facilitates communication of the forecast to the general public.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Empirical Trials of Plant Field Guides

We designed 3 image‐based field guides to tropical forest plant species in Ghana, Grenada, and Cameroon and tested them with 1095 local residents and 20 botanists in the United Kingdom. We compared users’ identification accuracy with different image formats, including drawings, specimen photos, living plant photos, and paintings. We compared users’ accuracy with the guides to their accuracy with only their prior knowledge of the flora. We asked respondents to score each format for usability, beauty, and how much they would pay for it. Prior knowledge of plant names was generally low (<22%). With a few exceptions, identification accuracy did not differ significantly among image formats. In Cameroon, users identifying sterile Cola species achieved 46–56% accuracy across formats; identification was most accurate with living plant photos. Botanists in the United Kingdom accurately identified 82–93% of the same Cameroonian species; identification was most accurate with specimens. In Grenada, users accurately identified 74–82% of plants; drawings yielded significantly less accurate identifications than paintings and photos of living plants. In Ghana, users accurately identified 85% of plants. Digital color photos of living plants ranked high for beauty, usability, and what users would pay. Black and white drawings ranked low. Our results show the potential and limitations of the use of field guides and nonspecialists to identify plants, for example, in conservation applications. We recommend authors of plant field guides use the cheapest or easiest illustration format because image type had limited bearing on accuracy; match the type of illustration to the most likely use of the guide for slight improvements in accuracy; avoid black and white formats unless the audience is experienced at interpreting illustrations or keeping costs low is imperative; discourage false‐positive identifications, which were common; and encourage users to ask an expert or use a herbarium for groups that are difficult to identify. Pruebas Empíricas de Guías de Campo de Plantas Hawthorne, Cable & Marshall     

Vocal Activity as a Low Cost and Scalable Index of Seabird Colony Size

Although wildlife conservation actions have increased globally in number and complexity, the lack of scalable, cost‐effective monitoring methods limits adaptive management and the evaluation of conservation efficacy. Automated sensors and computer‐aided analyses provide a scalable and increasingly cost‐effective tool for conservation monitoring. A key assumption of automated acoustic monitoring of birds is that measures of acoustic activity at colony sites are correlated with the relative abundance of nesting birds. We tested this assumption for nesting Forster's terns (Sterna forsteri) in San Francisco Bay for 2 breeding seasons. Sensors recorded ambient sound at 7 colonies that had 15–111 nests in 2009 and 2010. Colonies were spaced at least 250 m apart and ranged from 36 to 2,571 m². We used spectrogram cross‐correlation to automate the detection of tern calls from recordings. We calculated mean seasonal call rate and compared it with mean active nest count at each colony. Acoustic activity explained 71% of the variation in nest abundance between breeding sites and 88% of the change in colony size between years. These results validate a primary assumption of acoustic indices; that is, for terns, acoustic activity is correlated to relative abundance, a fundamental step toward designing rigorous and scalable acoustic monitoring programs to measure the effectiveness of conservation actions for colonial birds and other acoustically active wildlife. La Actividad Vocal como un Índice Escalable y de Bajo Costo del Tamaño de Colonia de las Aves Marinas     

Biogeographical and Taxonomic Biases in Tropical Forest Fragmentation Research

Despite several decades of research on the effects of fragmentation and habitat change on biodiversity, there remain strong biases in the geographical regions and taxonomic species studied. The knowledge gaps resulting from these biases are of particular concern if the forests most threatened with modification are also those for which the effects of such change are most poorly understood. To quantify the nature and magnitude of such biases, we conducted a systematic review of the published literature on forest fragmentation in the tropics for the period 1980–2012. Studies included focused on any type of response of single species, communities, or assemblages of any taxonomic group to tropical forest fragmentation and on fragmentation‐related changes to forests. Of the 853 studies we found in the SCOPUS database, 64% were conducted in the Neotropics, 13% in Asia, 10% in the Afrotropics, and 5% in Australasia. Thus, although the Afrotropics is subject to the highest rates of deforestation globally, it was the most disproportionately poorly studied biome. Significant taxonomic biases were identified. Of the taxonomic groups considered, herpetofauna was the least studied in the tropics, particularly in Africa. Research examining patterns of species distribution was by far the most common type (72%), and work focused on ecological processes (28%) was rare in all biomes, but particularly in the Afrotropics and for fauna. We suggest research efforts be directed toward less‐studied biogeographic regions, particularly where the threat of forest fragmentation continues to be high. Increased research investment in the Afrotropics will be important to build knowledge of threats and inform responses in a region where almost no efforts to restore its fragmented landscapes have yet begun and forest protection is arguably most tenuous. Sesgos Biogeográficos y Taxonómicos en la Investigación de la Fragmentación de Bosques Tropicales