Relationship between Population Size and Fitness

Abstract:  Long-term effective population size, which determines rates of inbreeding, is correlated with population fitness. Fitness, in turn, influences population persistence. I synthesized data from the literature concerning the effects of population size on population fitness in natural populations of plants to determine how large populations must be to maintain levels of fitness that will provide adequate protection against environmental perturbations that can cause extinction. Integral to this comment on what has been done and what needs to be done, sThe evidence suggests that there is a linear relationship between log population size and population fitness over the range of population sizes examined. More importantly, populations will have to be maintained at sizes of >2000 individuals to maintain population fitness at levels compatible with the conservation goal of long-term persistence. This approach to estimating minimum viable population size provides estimates that are in general agreement with those from numerous other studies and strengthens the argument that conservation efforts should ultimately aim at maintaining populations of several thousand individuals to ensure long-term persistence.     

Biotic Impoverishment and Homogenization in Unfragmented Forest Understory Communities

Abstract:  Ecological change is often hard to document because of a lack of reliable baseline data. Several recent then-versus-now surveys of temperate forest and grassland communities demonstrate losses of local plant species, but most are based on data from a single site. We resurveyed understory communities in 62 upland forest stands in northern Wisconsin (U.S.A.) for which quantitative baseline data exist from 50 years ago. These stands are within a largely unfragmented region but vary in species composition and successional stage. We collected data on changes in (1) total and native species richness, (2) the ratio of exotic to native species, (3) the relative abundance of habitat generalists, and (4) community similarity among sites. We also compared how these rates of change varied over time. Over the past 50 years, native species density declined an average of 18.5% at the 20-m² scale, whereas the ratio of exotic species to native species increased at 80% of all sites. Habitat generalists increased, and habitat specialists declined, accounting in part for an 8.7% rise in average similarity in species composition among sites. Most of these changes cannot be related to succession, habitat loss, or invasion by exotic species. Areas without deer hunting showed the greatest declines in native species density, with parks and research natural areas faring no better than unprotected stands. Animal-pollinated and animal-dispersed species also declined, particularly at unhunted sites. These results demonstrate the power of quantitative multistand data for assessing ecological change and identify overabundant deer as a key driver of community change. Because maintaining forest habitats alone fails to preserve plant diversity at local scales, local biotic simplification seems likely to continue in the region unless active efforts are taken to protect diversity.     

Written Accounts of an Amazonian Landscape Over the Last 450 Years

Abstract:  Books, articles, government documents, and other written accounts of tropical biology and conservation reach a tiny fraction of their potential audience. Some texts are inaccessible because of the language in which they are written. Others are only available to subscribers of developed-world journals, or distributed narrowly within tropical countries. To examine this dysfunction in the tropical literature—and what it means for conservation—we tried to compile everything ever written on the biology and conservation of the department of Madre de Dios, Peru, in southwestern Amazonia. Our search of libraries, databases, and existing bibliographies uncovered 2,202 texts totaling roughly 80,000 pages. Texts date from 1553 to 2004, but 93% were written after 1970. Since that year the publication rate has increased steadily from fewer than 10 texts/year to nearly 3 texts/week in 2004. Roughly half of the Madre de Dios bibliography is in Spanish-language texts written by Peruvian authors and mostly inaccessible outside Peru. Most of the remaining material is English-language texts written by foreign authors and largely inaccessible in Peru. Foreign authors tended to write about ecological studies with limited relevance to on-the-ground conservation challenges, whereas Peruvian authors were more likely to make specific management recommendations. The establishment of a Web-based digital library for Neotropical nature would help make the tropical literature a more efficient resource for science and conservation. Additional recommendations include investing in syntheses, translations, popular summaries, and peer-reviewed journals in tropical countries, providing incentives for management-relevant research in tropical protected areas, and reinforcing training of scientific reading and writing in tropical universities.     

New Genetic Approach to Detecting Individuals of Rare and Endangered Species

Abstract: Many rare and endangered species are difficult to locate, observe, and study. Consequently, many individuals, breeding pairs, and even populations of such species could remain undetected. Genetic markers can potentially be used to detect the existence of undiscovered individuals and populations, and we propose a method to do so that requires 3 conditions. First, sampling of the known population(s) of the target species must be comprehensive. Second, the species must display a reasonable level of philopatry and genetic structuring. Third, individuals must be able to be caught outside of breeding locations (e.g., at courtship or feeding areas, in flight), and the level of recapture must be reasonably high. We applied our method to the Chatham Island Taiko (Pterodroma magentae), one of the world's most endangered seabirds. We sequenced the Taiko mitochondrial cytochrome b gene and both copies of a fragment of the duplicated domain I of the control region. Twenty‐one haplotypes were revealed, including 4 (19%) not found in birds at known burrows. These results suggest there are more burrow groups yet to be located. The species is a pelagic gadfly petrel that inhabits land only in the breeding season during which it is nocturnal and nests in burrows. Taiko burrows are situated in dense forest in a remote area of Chatham Island, and are consequently difficult to locate and study. It is important that all Taiko burrows be discovered to enable monitoring and protection of the birds from exotic predators.     

Forecasting the Expansion of Zebra Mussels in the United States

Abstract:  Because zebra mussels spread rapidly throughout the eastern United States in the late 1980s and early 1990s, their spread to the western United States has been expected. Overland dispersal into inland lakes and reservoirs, however, has occurred at a much slower rate than earlier spread via connected, navigable waterways. We forecasted the potential western spread of zebra mussels by predicting the overland movement of recreational boaters with a production-constrained gravity model. We also predicted the potential abundance of zebra mussels in two western reservoirs by comparing their water chemistry characteristics with those of water bodies with known abundances of zebra mussels. Most boats coming from waters infested with zebra mussels were taken to areas that already had zebra mussels, but a small proportion of such boats did travel west of the 100th meridian. If zebra mussels do establish in western U.S. water bodies, we predict that population densities could achieve similar levels to those in the Midwestern United States, where zebra mussels have caused considerable economic and ecological impacts. Our analyses suggest that the dispersal of zebra mussels to the western United States is an event of low probability but potentially high impact on native biodiversity and human infrastructure. Combining these results with economic analyses could help determine appropriate investment levels in prevention and control strategies .     

The Effectiveness of Surrogate Taxa for the Representation of Biodiversity

Abstract: Biodiversity is too complex to measure directly, so conservation planning must rely on surrogates to estimate the biodiversity of sites. The species richness of selected taxa is often used as a surrogate for the richness of other taxa. Surrogacy values of taxa have been evaluated in diverse contexts, yet broad trends in their effectiveness remain unclear. We reviewed published studies testing the ability of species richness of surrogate taxa to capture the richness of other (target) taxa. We stratified studies into two groups based on whether a complementarity approach (surrogates used to select a combination of sites that together maximize total species richness for the taxon) or a richness‐hotspot approach (surrogates used to select sites containing the highest species richness for the taxon) was used. For each comparison of one surrogate taxon with one target, we used the following predictor variables: biome, spatial extent of study area, surrogate taxon, and target taxon. We developed a binary response variable based on whether the surrogate taxon provided better than random representation of the target taxon. For studies that used an evaluation approach that was not based on better than random representation of target taxa, we based the response variable on the interpretation of results in the original study. We performed a categorical regression to elucidate trends in the effectiveness of surrogate taxa with regard to each of the predictor variables. A surrogate was 25% more likely to be effective with a complementarity approach than with a hotspot approach. For hotspot‐based approaches, biome, extent of study, surrogate taxon, and target taxon significantly influenced effectiveness of the surrogate. For complementarity‐based approaches, biome, extent, and surrogate taxon significantly influenced effectiveness of the surrogate. For all surrogate evaluations, biome explained the greatest amount of variation in surrogate effectiveness. From most to least, extent, surrogate taxon, and target taxon explained the most variation after biome. Surrogate taxa were most effective in grasslands and in some cases boreal zones, deserts, and tropical forests; surrogate taxa also were more effective in studies examining larger areas. Herpetofauna were the most effective taxon as both surrogate and target when a richness‐hotspot approach was used; however, herpetofauna were analyzed in fewer studies, so this result is tentative. For complementarity approaches, taxa that are easy to measure and tend to have a large number of habitat specialists distributed collectively across broad environmental gradients (e.g., plants, birds, and mammals) were the most effective surrogates.