Ability of Matrix Models to Explain the Past and Predict the Future of Plant Populations

Uncertainty associated with ecological forecasts has long been recognized, but forecast accuracy is rarely quantified. We evaluated how well data on 82 populations of 20 species of plants spanning 3 continents explained and predicted plant population dynamics. We parameterized stage‐based matrix models with demographic data from individually marked plants and determined how well these models forecast population sizes observed at least 5 years into the future. Simple demographic models forecasted population dynamics poorly; only 40% of observed population sizes fell within our forecasts’ 95% confidence limits. However, these models explained population dynamics during the years in which data were collected; observed changes in population size during the data‐collection period were strongly positively correlated with population growth rate. Thus, these models are at least a sound way to quantify population status. Poor forecasts were not associated with the number of individual plants or years of data. We tested whether vital rates were density dependent and found both positive and negative density dependence. However, density dependence was not associated with forecast error. Forecast error was significantly associated with environmental differences between the data collection and forecast periods. To forecast population fates, more detailed models, such as those that project how environments are likely to change and how these changes will affect population dynamics, may be needed. Such detailed models are not always feasible. Thus, it may be wiser to make risk‐averse decisions than to expect precise forecasts from models. Habilidad de los Modelos Matriciales para Explicar el Pasado y Predecir el Futuro de las Poblaciones de Plantas     

Persistent Unequal Sex Ratio in a Population of Grayling (Salmonidae) and Possible Role of Temperature Increase

In some fishes, water chemistry or temperature affects sex determination or creates sex‐specific selection pressures. The resulting population sex ratios are hard to predict from laboratory studies if the environmental triggers interact with other factors, whereas in field studies, singular observations of unusual sex ratios may be particularly prone to selective reporting. Long‐term monitoring largely avoids these problems. We studied a population of grayling (Thymallus thymallus) in Lake Thun, Switzerland, that has been monitored since 1948. Samples of spawning fish have been caught about 3 times/week around spawning season, and water temperature at the spawning site has been continuously recorded since 1970. We used scale samples collected in different years to determine the average age of spawners (for life‐stage specific analyses) and to identify the cohort born in 2003 (an extraordinarily warm year). Recent tissue samples were genotyped on microsatellite markers to test for genetic bottlenecks in the past and to estimate the genetically effective population size (N_e). Operational sex ratios changed from approximately 65% males before 1993 to approximately 85% males from 1993 to 2011. Sex ratios correlated with the water temperatures the fish experienced in their first year of life. Sex ratios were best explained by the average temperature juvenile fish experienced during their first summer. Grayling abundance is declining, but we found no evidence of a strong genetic bottleneck that would explain the apparent lack of evolutionary response to the unequal sex ratio. Results of other studies show no evidence of endocrine disruptors in the study area. Our findings suggest temperature affects population sex ratio and thereby contributes to population decline. Persistencia de Proporción de Sexos Desigual en una Población de Tímalos (Salmonidae) y el Posible Papel del Incremento de la Temperatura     

Use of Stress‐Hormone Levels and Habitat Selection to Assess Functional Connectivity of a Landscape for an Amphibian

Abstract: The influence of landscape matrix on functional connectivity has been clearly established. Now methods to assess the effects of different land uses on species’ movements are needed because current methods are often biased. The use of physiological parameters as indicators of the level of resistance to animal movement associated with different land uses (i.e., matrix resistance) could provide estimates of energetic costs and risks to animals migrating through the matrix. To assess whether corticosterone levels indicate matrix resistance, we conducted experiments on substrate choice and measured levels of corticosterone before and after exposure of toads (Bufo bufo) to 3 common substrates (ploughed soil, meadow, and forest litter). We expected matrix resistance and hormone levels to increase from forest litter (habitat of the toad) to meadows to ploughed soil. Adult toads had higher corticosterone levels on ploughed soil than on forest litter or meadow substrates. Hormone levels did not differ between forest litter and meadow. Toads avoided moving onto ploughed soil. Corticosterone levels in juvenile toads were not related to substrate type; however, hormone levels decreased as humidity increased. Juveniles, unlike adults, did not avoid moving over ploughed soil. The difference in responses between adult and juvenile toads may have been due to differences in experimental design (for juveniles, entire body used to measure corticosterone concentration; for adults, saliva alone); differences in the scale of sensory perception of the substrate (juveniles are much smaller than adults); or differences in cognitive processes between adult and juvenile toads. Adults probably had experience with different substrate types, whereas juveniles first emerging from the water probably did not. As a consequence, arable lands could act as ecological traps for juvenile toads.     

From Adaptive Management to Adjustive Management: A Pragmatic Account of Biodiversity Values

Abstract: The conservation of biodiversity poses an exceptionally difficult problem in that it needs to be effective in a context of double uncertainty: scientific (i.e., how to conserve biodiversity) and normative (i.e., which biodiversity to conserve and why). Although adaptive management offers a promising approach to overcome scientific uncertainty, normative uncertainty is seldom tackled by conservation science. We expanded on the approach proposed by adaptive‐management theorists by devising an integrative and iterative approach to conservation that encompasses both types of uncertainty. Inspired by environmental pragmatism, we suggest that moral values at stake in biodiversity conservation are plastic and that a plurality of individual normative positions can coexist and evolve. Moral values should thus be explored through an experimental process as additional parameters to be incorporated in the traditional adaptive‐management approach. As such, moral values should also be monitored by environmental ethicists working side by side with scientists and managers on conservation projects. Acknowledging the diversity of moral values and integrating them in a process of collective deliberation will help overcome the normative uncertainty. We used Dewey's distinction between adaptation and adjustment to offer a new paradigm built around what we call adjustive management, which reflects both the uncertainty and the likely evolution of the moral values humans attribute to biodiversity. We illustrate how this paradigm relates to practical conservation decisions by exploring the case of the Sacred Ibis (Threskiornis aethiopicus), an alien species in France that is the target of an eradication plan undertaken with little regard for moral issues. We propose that a more satisfying result of efforts to control Sacred Ibis could have been reached by rerouting the traditional feedback loop of adaptive management to include a normative inquiry. This adjustive management approach now needs to be tested in real‐case conservation programs.     

Importance of Accounting for Detection Heterogeneity When Estimating Abundance: the Case of French Wolves

Abstract: Assessing conservation strategies requires reliable estimates of abundance. Because detecting all individuals is most often impossible in free‐ranging populations, estimation procedures have to account for a <1 detection probability. Capture–recapture methods allow biologists to cope with this issue of detectability. Nevertheless, capture–recapture models for open populations are built on the assumption that all individuals share the same detection probability, although detection heterogeneity among individuals has led to underestimating abundance of closed populations. We developed multievent capture–recapture models for an open population and proposed an associated estimator of population size that both account for individual detection heterogeneity (IDH). We considered a two‐class mixture model with weakly and highly detectable individuals to account for IDH. In a noninvasive capture–recapture study of wolves we based on genotypes identified in feces and hairs, we found a large underestimation of population size (27% on average) occurred when IDH was ignored.     

Residential Water Consumption,Motivation for Conserving Water and the Continuing Tragedy of the Commons

This paper explores the effect of the perception of externalities (PE) on residential water consumption. Externalities occur when individuals make decisions that harm others, without concern for the impact or feeling a need to compensate for the harm. The aim of this study was to investigate whether PE affects people's motivation to conserve water, and, consequently, the practice of residential water consumption. Two hundred eighty Mexican citizens responded to a questionnaire investigating how they perceived that other individuals in their community wasted water. Respondents were also asked about their motives to conserve water, and direct observations of individual water consumption were recorded. Results were processed within a structural equations model, which revealed that motives to conserve water significantly inhibit water consumption. Since the perception of externalities also inhibits conservation motives, the resulting effect of PE on water consumption is positive. This result means that the more people perceive that others waste water, the less their conservation motives, and, therefore, the more their own water consumption.     

焦炉工人PAHs空气日均暴露浓度分析

用个体采样器对100名受试者进行了可吸入颗粒物和气态样品的24h跟踪采集,并通过梯度洗脱一反相HPLC／可编程序荧光检测法定量分析了样品中14种多环芳烃。结果表明,不同受试人员多环芳烃空气日均暴露浓度存在很大差异,其中焦炉工人受多环芳烃中BaP空气日均暴露浓度为0．5μg／m^3～1．7μg／m^3,炼纲厂工作人员和清洁区办公人员的BaP空气日均暴露浓度分别为0．02μg／m^3和0．01μg／m^3。不同受试人员多环芳烃空气日均暴露在PM10及气相中的分配比例也略有不同,焦炉工人的BaP空气日均暴露浓度有近99％来自PM10,一般人群为93％左右。指出2环、3环多环芳烃主要以气态形式存在,4环至6环多环芳烃主要分布在PM10中。     

Removal of emerging contaminants from wastewater using advanced treatments. A review

Environmental Chemistry Letters - The rise of emerging contaminants in waters challenges the scientific community and water treatment stakeholders to design remediation techniques that are simple,...