Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America

Range expansion by native and exotic species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. Still unanswered, however, is the question of how well this new generation of dynamic models will anticipate range expansion. Here we develop a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in climate and habitat to model range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA; Adelges tsugae). We parameterize this model using multiyear data sets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and apply it to eastern North America over a 57-year period (1951-2008). To evaluate the model, the observed pattern of spread of HWA during this same period was compared to model predictions. Our model predicts considerable heterogeneity in the risk of HWA invasion across space and through time, and it suggests that spatiotemporal variation in winter temperature, rather than hemlock abundance, exerts a primary control on the spread of HWA. Although the simulations generally matched the observed current extent of the invasion of HWA and patterns of anisotropic spread, it did not correctly predict when HWA was observed to arrive in different geographic regions. We attribute differences between the modeled and observed dynamics to an inability to capture the timing and direction of long-distance dispersal events that substantially affected the ensuing pattern of spread.     

Assessing the impact of household participation on satisfaction and safe design in humanitarian shelter projects

Participation has long been considered important for post‐disaster recovery. Establishing what constitutes participation in post‐disaster shelter projects, however, has remained elusive, and the links between different types of participation and shelter programme outcomes are not well understood. Furthermore, recent case studies suggest that misguided participation strategies may be to blame for failures. This study analysed 19 shelter projects implemented in the Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan in November 2013 to identify the forms of participation employed. Using fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis, it assessed how household participation in the planning, design, and construction phases of shelter reconstruction led to outcomes of household satisfaction and safe shelter design. Participation was operationalised via eight central project tasks, revealing that the involvement of households in the early planning stages of projects and in construction activities were important for satisfaction and design outcomes, whereas engagement during the design phase of projects had little impact on the selected outcomes.     

Evaluation of a Soil‐Based System to Dissipate Multiple Pesticides

Pesticide contaminated wastewater resulting from leftover mixes, equipment cleaning, and container disposal are problems related to pesticide use. This study reports on the effectiveness of a soil‐based bioreactor (SBBR) to dissipate pesticides of differing concentrations and mixtures. In order to accomplish this study, soil columns were used to simulate the SBBR. A mixture of five herbicides and two insecticides from seven different chemical families (atrazine, dicamba, fluometuron, metolachlor, sulfentrazone, chlopyrifus, and λ‐cyhalothrin) were added to the SBBR‐simulated system as formulated products in three concentrations each: 0 part per million (control), 10 ppm, and 100 ppm. Additionally a 1,000 ppm treatment was added that included just the five herbicides to investigate how the system would respond to heavy loading. The system was run for 90 days with samples taken at day 4 (just prior to loading the columns), then at 30, 60, and 90 days. At low pesticide concentrations (10 and 100 ppm), there was significant dissipation (p < 0.05) of all pesticides in the columns except sulfentrazone. At 1,000 ppm, fluometuron, in addition to sulfentrazone, did not show significant dissipation. Overall, the system performed as expected and could be considered practical for use on farms or nurseries. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The Watershed Flow and Allocation Model: An NHDPlus‐Based Watershed Modeling Approach for Multiple Scales and Conditions

The Watershed Flow and Allocation model (WaterFALL^®) provides segment‐specific, daily streamflow at both gaged and ungaged locations to generate the hydrologic foundation for a variety of water resources management applications. The model is designed to apply across the spatially explicit and enhanced National Hydrography Dataset (NHDPlus) stream and catchment network. To facilitate modeling at the NHDPlus catchment scale, we use an intermediate‐level rainfall‐runoff model rather than a complex process‐based model. The hydrologic model within WaterFALL simulates rainfall‐runoff processes for each catchment within a watershed and routes streamflow between catchments, while accounting for withdrawals, discharges, and onstream reservoirs within the network. The model is therefore distributed among each NHDPlus catchment within the larger selected watershed. Input parameters including climate, land use, soils, and water withdrawals and discharges are georeferenced to each catchment. The WaterFALL system includes a centralized database and server‐based environment for storing all model code, input parameters, and results in a single instance for all simulations allowing for rapid comparison between multiple scenarios. We demonstrate and validate WaterFALL within North Carolina at a variety of scales using observed streamflows to inform quantitative and qualitative measures, including hydrologic flow metrics relevant to the study of ecological flow management decisions.     

Air-water PCB fluxes from southwestern Lake Michigan revisited

From simultaneous air and water polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) measurements collected in September 2010, we re-evaluated the direction and magnitude of net air-water exchange of PCBs in southwest Lake Michigan and compared them with estimations made using similar approaches 15 years prior. Air and water samples were collected during a research expedition on Lake Michigan at 5 km off the coast of Chicago, with prevailing winds from the southwest of our location. Gas-phase ΣPCB concentrations ranged from 190 to 1100 pg m^?3 with a median of 770 pg m^?3, which is similar to the concentrations measured in the City of Chicago at the same time and similar to concentrations measured in this part of the lake over the last 20 years. Water dissolved-phase ΣPCB concentrations ranged from 150 to 170 pg L^?1 with a median of 160 pg L^?1, which is one-tenth of that measured in the 1990s. ?PCB net fluxes showed a slightly absorptive behavior, with a median of (?) 21 ng m^?2 day^?1 and an interquartile range of (?) 47 to (+) 5 ng m^?2 day^?1, where (?) and (+) fluxes indicate absorption and volatilization, respectively. Airborne PCB concentrations were higher when the winds were coming from Chicago and drive the deposition. Our fluxes are not significantly different from estimations from 1994 and 1995 and suggest that absorption of PCBs into the waters is slightly more prevalent than 15 years ago. It was confirmed that Chicago remains an important atmospheric source of PCBs to Lake Michigan.

     

Organochlorine contaminants in seven species of Arctic seabirds from northern Baffin Bay

Organochlorine contaminants (OCs) were determined in liver and fat of seven species of seabirds (Alle alle, Uria lomvia, Cepphus grylle, Rissa tridactyla, Pagophila eburnea, Larus hyperboreus, and Fulmaris glacialis) collected in May/June 1998 from the Northwater Polynya in northern Baffin Bay. OC concentrations ranged over an order of magnitude between seabird species and OC groups, with PCBs having the highest concentrations followed by DDT, chlordane, HCH and ClBz. Positive relationships between delta15N (estimator of trophic level) and OC concentrations (lipid basis) were found for all OC groups, showing that trophic position and biomagnification significantly influence OC concentrations in Arctic seabirds. Concentrations of a number of OCs in particular species (e.g., HCH in P. eburnean) were lower than expected based on delta15N and was attributed to biotransformation. P. eburnea and F. glacialis, which scavenge, and R. tridactyla, which migrate from the south, were consistently above the delta15N-OC regression providing evidence that these variables can elevate OC concentrations. Stable isotope measurements in muscle may not be suitable for identifying past scavenging events by seabirds. OC relative proportions were related to trophic position and phylogeny, showing that OC biotransformation varies between seabird groups. Trophic level, migration, scavenging and biotransformation all play important roles in the OCs found in Arctic seabirds.     

Transition Pathways to Sustainable Agricultural Water Management: A Review of Integrated Modeling Approaches

Agricultural water management (AWM) is an interdisciplinary concern, cutting across traditional domains such as agronomy, climatology, geology, economics, and sociology. Each of these disciplines has developed numerous process‐based and empirical models for AWM. However, models that simulate all major hydrologic, water quality, and crop growth processes in agricultural systems are still lacking. As computers become more powerful, more researchers are choosing to integrate existing models to account for these major processes rather than building new cross‐disciplinary models. Model integration carries the hope that, as in a real system, the sum of the model will be greater than the parts. However, models based upon simplified and unrealistic assumptions of physical or empirical processes can generate misleading results which are not useful for informing policy. In this article, we use literature and case studies from the High Plains Aquifer and Southeastern United States regions to elucidate the challenges and opportunities associated with integrated modeling for AWM and recommend conditions in which to use integrated models. Additionally, we examine the potential contributions of integrated modeling to AWM — the actual practice of conserving water while maximizing productivity. Editor's note : This paper is part of the featured series on Optimizing Ogallala Aquifer Water Use to Sustain Food Systems. See the February 2019 issue for the introduction and background to the series.     

Abundances and variability of tropospheric volatile organic compounds at the South Pole and other Antarctic locations

Multiyear (2000–2006) seasonal measurements of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, halogenated species, dimethyl sulfide, carbonyl sulfide and C₁–C₄ alkyl nitrates at the South Pole are presented for the first time. At the South Pole, short-lived species (such as the alkenes) typically were not observed above their limits of detection because of long transit times from source regions. Peak mixing ratios of the longer lived species with anthropogenic sources were measured in late winter (August and September) with decreasing mixing ratios throughout the spring. In comparison, compounds with a strong oceanic source, such as bromoform and methyl iodide, had peak mixing ratios earlier in the winter (June and July) because of decreased oceanic production during the winter months. Dimethyl sulfide (DMS), which is also oceanically emitted but has a short lifetime, was rarely measured above 5 pptv. This is in contrast to high DMS mixing ratios at coastal locations and shows the importance of photochemical removal during transport to the pole. Alkyl nitrate mixing ratios peaked during April and then decreased throughout the winter. The dominant source of the alkyl nitrates in the region is believed to be oceanic emissions rather than photochemical production due to low alkane levels.Sampling of other tropospheric environments via a Twin Otter aircraft included the west coast of the Ross Sea and large stretches of the Antarctic Plateau. In the coastal atmosphere, a vertical gradient was found with the highest mixing ratios of marine emitted compounds at low altitudes. Conversely, for anthropogenically produced species the highest mixing ratios were measured at the highest altitudes, suggesting long-range transport to the continent. Flights flown through the plume of Mount Erebus, an active volcano, revealed that both carbon monoxide and carbonyl sulfide are emitted with an OCS/CO molar ratio of 3.3 × 10^?3 consistent with direct observations by other investigators within the crater rim.